Leaderboards vs. the projections: the pitchers

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Here’s part two of my look at the actual leaderboards versus my projected totals. I’ll be listing players with their season totals and then where I had them ranked and projected.

Wins
1. Justin Verlander: 24 (6th, 16)
2. Ian Kennedy: 21 (67th, 11)
2. Clayton Kershaw: 21 (10th, 15)
4. Roy Halladay: 19 (1st, 19)
4. CC Sabathia: 19 (2nd, 18)
6. Jered Weaver: 18 (19th, 14)
7. Yovani Gallardo: 17 (19th, 14)
7. Cliff Lee: 17 (3rd, 17)
9. Gio Gonzalez: 16 (31st, 13)
9. Zack Greinke: 16 (31st, 13)
9. Dan Haren: 16 (19th, 14)
9. Derek Holland: 16 (67th, 11)
9. Daniel Hudson: 16 (31st, 13)
9. Tim Hudson: 16 (10th, 15)
9. Ivan Nova: 16 (87th, 10)
9. James Shields: 16 (31st, 13)
9. C.J. Wilson: 16 (31st, 13)

I had five pitchers winning 17 games, including Halladay, Sabathia and Lee. The other two were Jon Lester, who finished with 15, and Tim Lincecum, who ended up with 13.

Kennedy was obviously the biggest miss. I had him as a solid fantasy starter because of a strong WHIP and strikeout rate. But I didn’t think he’d be so good and I didn’t expect the team around him (the Arizona bullpen in particular) to perform so well.

ERA
1. Clayton Kershaw: 2.28 (3rd, 2.97)
2. Roy Halladay: 2.35 (2nd, 2.84)
3. Cliff Lee: 2.40 (4th, 3.04)
4. Justin Verlander: 2.40 (23rd, 3.51)
5. Jered Weaver: 2.41 (21st, 3.49)
6. Ryan Vogelsong: 2.71 (no projection)
7. Tim Lincecum: 2.74 (5th, 3.09)
8. Cole Hamels: 2.79 (15th, 3.39)
9. James Shields: 2.82 (76th, 4.12)
10. Doug Fister: 2.83 (113th, 4.38)

As you’ve probably noticed by now, I’m a bit more conservative with pitching projections; not since Pedro Martinez’s prime have I projected anyone to finish with an ERA in the low-2.00s.

I had Felix Hernandez atop my ERA leaderboard this year at 2.74, but he came up well short at 3.47 for the year. Two of the other guys in my top 10 got hurt (Josh Johnson and Brett Anderson), while Mat Latos, Tommy Hanson and Lester failed to make the cut here.

Strikeouts
1. Justin Verlander: 250 (6th, 202)
2. Clayton Kershaw: 248 (5th, 205)
3. Cliff Lee: 238 (28th, 178)
4. CC Sabathia: 230 (11th, 192)
5. James Shields: 225 (34th, 172)
6. Felix Hernandez: 222 (4th, 207)
7. Roy Halladay: 220 (7th, 197)
7. Tim Lincecum: 220 (1st, 232)
9. David Price: 218 (8th, 194)
10. Yovani Gallardo: 207 (2nd, 211)

Seven of the top 10 match up here. The exceptions are Jon Lester (211 projected, 182 actual), Jered Weaver (193 projected, 198 actual) and Jonathan Sanchez (193 projected, 102 actual in 101 1/3 IP). Of course, I had just six pitchers projected to fan 200 batters.  In actuality, 14 did.

Yu Darvish lands on 10-day disabled list again with triceps tendinitis

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Bad news for the Cubs’ Yu Darvish: The right-hander is headed back to the disabled list with right triceps tendinitis, the team announced Saturday. It’s the second such assignment for Darvish this season, but the first time he’s been sidelined with arm issues. Neither the severity of his injury nor a concrete timeframe for his recovery has been revealed yet, but the move is retroactive to May 23 and will allow him to come off the DL by June 2, assuming all goes well.

Prior to the injury, Darvish went 1-3 in eight starts with a 4.95 ERA, 4.7 BB/9 and 11.0 SO/9 through 40 innings. Needless to say, these aren’t the kind of results the Cubs were hoping to see after inking the righty to a six-year, $126 million contract back in February, though the circumstances affecting his performances appear to have largely been out of his control. He missed a start in early May after coming down with the flu and has struggled to pitch beyond the fifth inning in five of his eight starts to date.

The Cubs recalled left-hander Randy Rosario from Triple-A Iowa in a corresponding move. Rosario has yet to amass more than five career innings in the majors, but has impressed at Triple-A so far this year: he maintained an 0.97 ERA, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.1 SO/9 through 19 1/3 innings in 2018. As for Darvish’s next scheduled turn in the rotation, Tyler Chatwood is lined up to take the mound when the Cubs face off against the Giants in the series finale on Sunday. A starter for Monday night’s game has yet to be determined.