Wait, Jerry Meals may have been right?

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I love Rob Neyer. I’ve written thousands of words about my man-crush on him over the years. And there’s no one in this business whose intellect and judgment I trust more. Really, if the Martians flew here to annihilate civilization but offered us one chance to save ourselves, and that chance involved the analysis of a baseball issue, Rob would totally be my huckleberry.

But Rob, I don’t think I’m with you on this one.  Here’s his take on the Jerry Meals play:

Call me a sensationalist or an iconoclast if you like, but I just gotta say something this morning …

Jerry Meals might have been right.

I’m sorry, but I still have not seen a conclusive replay. I’ve read a lot of Tweets from people claiming the replays or screen-captures are conclusive, but I’m looking at the same things and I’m just not seeing it. I’m not seeing a for sure in any of them.

Can’t say I agree — it looks pretty plain to me that the tag was applied — but as Rob himself says sometimes, I link you decide.

Video: Starling Marte refuses to take first base after being hit by pitch

Tim Warner/Getty Images
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Pirates outfielder Starling Marte was hit on the hand by a Jack Flaherty pitch in the fourth inning of Tuesday night’s game against the Cardinals. Rather than take first base, Marte — who came to the plate with a runner on first base — insisted to home plate umpire Bruce Dreckman that the ball hit the knob of the bat, not his hand. Marte was allowed to continue his at-bat, though manager Clint Hurdle came out to discuss the ruling with Dreckman. Marte eventually grounded into a fielder’s choice. He then got caught attempting to steal second base and the Pirates scored zero runs in the inning.

According to Baseball Prospectus, a team that has runners on first and second with no outs is expected to score 1.55 runs. Having a runner on first base with one out yields 0.56 expected runs. Marte essentially cost his team a run by rejecting first base. Oops.