Where will Derek Jeter finish on the all-time hits list?

7 Comments

Upon reaching the milestone Saturday, Derek Jeter became the fourth youngest player to collect 3,000 hits, doing so just a couple of weeks after his 37th birthday on June 26.

Ty Cobb got there at age 34.  Hank Aaron and Robin Yount were 36.  Pete Rose was just a week older than Jeter when he did it.

And, of course, Rose and Cobb are the only members of the 4,000-hit club.  Rose ended his career with 4,256.  Cobb finished at 4,189.  Next on the list is Aaron at 3,771.

So, where will Jeter stand on the all-time list when he’s finished?  He’s currently 27th after overtaking Roberto Clemente, who died having collected exactly 3,000 hits.  With his 5-for-5 day pushing him up to 3,003 hits, he’s just four hits behind Al Kaline for 26th place.

Jeter has 2 1/2 years to go on the three-year, $51 million contract he signed to remain with the Yankees last winter.  Over the last 2 1/2 years, he has 461 hits.  That, however, is going to be a hard total to match over the remainder of his contract.

So, let’s figure it out.

The Yankees have 74 games left this season.  Let’s say Jeter plays in 68 of them.  Jeter has averaged 1.27 hits per game over the course of his career, but only 1.16 this season.  I’ll split the difference and give him 1.21 hits per game over the rest of the season.

That gives Jeter 82 more hits and puts him at 3,085 entering 2012.

From there, who really knows?  Some Yankees fans have talked about wanting Jeter to retire after the season because of his diminished production.  No one really thinks that’s going to happen, though.  Jeter is almost certainly going to be the Yankees’ regular shortstop again next season.  It may well be for the best if he slides down to the bottom of the lineup, at least against right-handers.  However, if Jeter stays healthy, he’s going to rack up at least another 150 hits next year.

After that, maybe a reduced role will be in store for 2013.  And depending on how he handles the adjustment, he could retire after the season or remain with the Yankees as a part-timer.

Time for some numbers.  Here’s what I’m thinking.

First, a look at the last four seasons:

2008: 179 H in 150 G – 1.19 H/G
2009: 212 H in 153 G – 1.39 H/G
2010: 179 H in 157 G – 1.14 H/G
2011: 77 H in 67 G – 1.15 H/B

And now my remainder of career of projection:

2011: 82 H in 68 G – 1.21 H/G
2012: 157 H in 140 G – 1.12 H/G
2013: 131 H in 125 G – 1.05 H/G

That would put him at 3,373 hits for his career, placing him ninth all-time between Carl Yastrzemski at 3,419 and Paul Molitor at 3,319.

And that sounds about right to me.  Jeter isn’t likely to hang on like Rose did.  Retiring at 39 as MLB’s ninth-leading hitter seems pretty appropriate.

But how about one more projection. Let’s say Jeter rebounds next year, and the Yankees decide that while he’s probably not a shortstop anymore, he still needs to be an everyday player in 2013, whether it’s in the outfield or at third base (with Alex Rodriguez at DH). He adjusts well, hits about .300 and gets a two-year deal that keeps him in pinstripes through 2015. So here’s the optimistic projection:

2011: 82 H in 68 G – 1.21 H/G
2012: 183 H in 150 G – 1.22 H/G
2013: 171 H in 145 G – 1.18 H/G
2014: 161 H in 140 G – 1.15 H/G
2015: 135 H in 125 G – 1.08 H/G

That would give Jeter 3,735 hits through age 41. Rose and Cobb still appear way out of reach, but he’d be just 36 hits behind Aaron for third all-time. I’d say it’s a long shot, but it’s not so difficult to imagine.

1. Rose – 4,256
2. Cobb – 4,189
3. Aaron – 3,771
4. Jeter – 3,735

Marlins, Giants get into heated beanball war

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
8 Comments

You may have heard that Giants closer Hunter Strickland broke his hand punching a door in frustration after Monday night’s subpar performance. He’ll miss six to eight weeks as a result. Strickland came in to protect a 4-2 lead but ended up giving up three runs. The tying run was knocked in by Lewis Brinson on a single to right field. Brinson moved to third base on a go-ahead single by Miguel Rojas, which prompted manager Bruce Bochy to take Strickland out of the game.

On his way to the dugout, Strickland started chirping at Brinson. Much like Bryce Harper and Strickland, Brinson and Strickland have a bit of a history. Last Thursday, Brinson handed Strickland a blown save with a sacrifice fly to deep center field. Brinson was happy to help his team tie the game, pumping his fast and saying, “Let’s go” at no one in particular. That rubbed Strickland the wrong way. Everything seems to rub Strickland the wrong way.

During Tuesday night’s game, Giants starter Dereck Rodriguez threw at Brinson with the first pitch, a 92 MPH fastball. Home plate umpire Andy Fletcher issued warnings to both benches. Manager Don Mattingly came out to argue, suggesting that his team hadn’t done anything wrong so it was unfair to essentially take the inside part of the plate away from his pitchers. On his way back to the dugout, Mattingly could be seen saying, “You’re next” to catcher Buster Posey.

The Giants scored twice in the bottom of the second against Dan Straily to extend their lead to 3-0. Posey came to the plate with a runner on first base and one out. Straily hit Posey with a 91 MPH fastball on the first pitch, prompting ejections of both Straily and Mattingly. Posey was hit on the arm. If the pitch had come in a bit lower and hit Posey on the wrist or hand, Posey might have had to go on the disabled list for a couple months. Or if the pitch had hit Posey a couple of inches higher, in the head, then who knows what would have happened.

Things calmed down from there, thankfully. The two clubs have one more game against each other in San Francisco on Wednesday and that will be the final time they meet this season. If anything further is going to happen — and hopefully, nothing happens — then it will come tomorrow.

Straily will almost certainly be facing a suspension and a fine, as will Mattingly. It’s less clear if Rodriguez and/or Bochy will be reprimanded for throwing at Brinson, even though it was fairly obvious the pitch was intentional. Regardless, the punishments amount to just one missed start for the pitchers, which isn’t nearly enough of a detriment to deter beanball wars.