Ken Rosenthal: “the Mets damn sure should keep Jose Reyes and David Wright”

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Should the Mets let Jose Reyes walk? Should they trade him at the deadline? Or should they just go in the other direction and keep Reyes and try to unload David Wright? Such a hard set of decisions!

Or maybe not, because after reading Ken Rosenthal’s latest, I’m having a hard time disagreeing with him: the Mets should try hard to sign Reyes and keep Wright.

The logic is pretty simple: Reyes is better than any shortstop that Mets are going to be able to replace him with and, assuming Fred Wilpon doesn’t go with a super austerity plan, he can be had.  Meanwhile, after figuring out which teams would be interested in acquiring David Wright, Rosenthal makes a pretty reasonable statement: “The entire discussion is ridiculous. If so many teams could use Wright, then maybe, just maybe, the Mets could use him, too.”

If Fred Wilpon declares a fire sale, sure, all bets are off.  But Rosenthal is right: if the Mets are merely going to bring payroll down to the $100-120 million range, it’s totally possible for them to keep both Reyes and Wright and makes a great deal of baseball sense to do so.

The “Clayton Kershaw can’t pitch in the postseason” narrative should be dead

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For years, a bulk of the postseason coverage surrounding Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw focused on his poor results once the regular season ended. The three-time Cy Young Award winner carried a career 5.68 postseason ERA following his NLDS Game 1 start against the Diamondbacks last year, a sample size spanning 15 starts and four relief appearances totaling 95 1/3 innings.

Kershaw had a subpar start against the Astros in Game 5 of the World Series last year and the narrative hit a fever pitch. I dug into the numbers at that point and found that a not-insignificant portion of Kershaw’s playoff ERA could be attributed to relievers coming in after him and failing to strand their inherited runners. At the time of that writing (October 30, 2017), Dodger relievers allowed 10 of 16 runners inherited from Kershaw in the playoffs to score, a strand rate of 37.5 percent. That’s roughly half of the league average (around 75 percent).

Kershaw finished out the World Series last year by pitching four scoreless innings of relief in Game 7. He returned to the postseason, starting Game 2 of the NLDS against the Braves this year and tossed eight shutout frames on just two hits with no walks. The narrative should have died there, too. It, of course did not. As the Dodgers advanced to the NLCS, Kershaw got the Game 1 nod against the Brewers and struggled. The Brewers got him for five runs (four earned) across three-plus innings. One of those runs included a home run hit by the opposing pitcher (Brandon Woodruff). Kershaw was also hurt by a passed ball and catcher’s interference on the part of Yasmani Grandal in the third inning. Not a great outing, but not as bad as the line score read, either.

In Game 5 of the NLCS on Wednesday evening, Kershaw once again redeemed himself. He limited the Brewers this time around to a lone run on three hits and two walks with nine strikeouts over seven innings of work. The only run came around in the third inning when Lorenzo Cain hit an RBI double to center field. Kershaw’s career postseason ERA is now 4.11 and it would be much lower if his bullpen had, in the past, done its job more effectively.

According to Katie Sharp of The Athletic, tonight’s postseason start was Kershaw’s eighth in which he allowed one run or fewer and three hits or fewer. No other pitcher in baseball history has made more than five such starts. That’s partially a function of opportunity, as the Dodgers have been in the postseason every year dating back to 2013 as well as in 2008 and ’09. But Kershaw still has to go out there and make the pitches, and he largely has. The “Kershaw can’t pitch in the postseason” narrative is dead. It never should have lived.