Springtime Storylines: Are the Astros headed for a long stretch of rough results?

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Between now and Opening Day, HBT will take a look at each of the 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2011 season. Next up: Houston, we have a problem.

The Big Question: Are the Astros headed for a long stretch of rough results?

It would appear so.

Outside of Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez and Hunter Pence, there isn’t much to like about the Astros’ current talent pool.

Veteran outfielder Carlos Lee can usually be counted on for 25-plus home runs and a respectable slugging percentage, but his career is trending down quickly and he doesn’t move so well anymore out in left field. The ‘Stros owe him $18.5 million this season and another $18.5 million in 2012.

The well-traveled Brett Wallace ranks high on prospect boards, but he batted just .222/.296/.319 with two home runs in his first 159 major league plate appearances last year and his move from third base to first base significantly hurt his projected value. The kid can flat out hit and should eventually figure it out in the majors. The question is whether his bat is ever going to be elite enough for the position. In the National League, most good teams get great production at first base.

Florida native Chris Johnson put together a promising rookie year at third base, but he will turn 27 years old at the end of this season and does not have good range defensively. On top of that, his minor league numbers suggest that he’s in for a regression as a sophomore.

The lack of excitement doesn’t end with the 25-man major league roster either. The Astros did not have one player in Baseball America’s Top 40 prospect rankings this winter and the entire farm system was ranked 26th by BA earlier this month. The big league team is bad, the minor league teams are bad, and there’s still a damn hill out in center field at Minute Maid Park. If there are good times ahead for Houston baseball, some serious miracles are going to need to take place first. And Ed Wade, my friends, is no miracle worker.

If the Astros want to get better, they need to start mimicking the ways of smaller market teams. Don’t give long-term contracts to aging players. Commit money to scouting and development. Draft well. Get busy on the international market. Build a top-level presence in Latin America.

So what else is going on?

  • New ownership may be on the horizon. According to a report this weekend from MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, current owner Drayton McLane is talking to three different parties about a possible sale. McLane has toyed with selling the team in the past and not followed through, so we’ll have to wait for more details to surface before a better idea can be formed about how a new head honcho (or head honchos) would affect the direction of the team. The more money the better, but it’s not like McLane has been cheap. Houston businessman Jim Crane is thought to be a finalist.
  • The Astros are going to have to make a decision on Pence pretty soon. He is entering his second year of arbitration eligibility and earned a whopping $6.9 million this offseason by winning his case against the team’s $5.15 million bid. Right now, that’s a fine price for a player with Pence’s ability but his salary is going to climb awfully close to $10 million next winter and he’ll be a free agent after 2013. Houston will either have to write its second $100 million contract (El Caballo got the first) or they’ll have to let the face of the franchise walk. The right call there, at least with the way things look now, would be to invest that kind of salary commitment into rebuilding. That, of course, comes at the risk of hurting ticket sales.
  • The Astros have a ton of holes and problems throughout the organization, but their situation at catcher this season can safely be called the most troubling. The depth chart calls for Humberto Quintero and J.R. Towles to split time at the position. Quintero posted a horrific .579 OPS across 276 plate appearances in 2010 and it wasn’t even the worst season of his career. Towles has drawn playing time in the major leagues each year since 2007 and can claim only 53 career hits for a .189 career batting average. Jason Castro was a high draft pick and may be productive in a few years, but he’s likely to miss the entire year while in recovery mode from surgery to repair a torn ACL.
  • Back in the National League Central and back in a full-time role, 31-year-old infielder Bill Hall may be someone to keep an eye on. The former Brewers regular woke his career from its slumber last season in Boston, slugging 18 homers and stealing nine bases in 10 opportunities as a highly active utilityman. The Astros are going to start him at second base over Jeff Keppinger and he might be able to do some damage on Minute Maid Park’s short left field porch.

So how are they gonna do?

Really poorly. The Astros enjoyed a nice run in the early-to-mid 2000s, but it’s going to be a while before they get the taste of .500 baseball again in Houston. This season brings 90 losses for the first time since 2000 and a close-shave fifth place finish over the sixth-place Pirates at the bottom of the National League Central.

Texas Rangers ink free-agent ace Jacob deGrom to 5-year deal

Jacob deGrom
USA Today
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ARLINGTON, Texas — Jacob deGrom is headed to the free-spending Texas Rangers, who believe the health risk is worth the potential reward in trying to end a six-year run of losing.

The two-time Cy Young Award winner agreed to a $185 million, five-year contract Friday, leaving the New York Mets after nine seasons – the past two shortened substantially by injuries.

“We acknowledge the risk, but we also acknowledge that in order to get great players, there is a risk and a cost associated with that,” Rangers general manager Chris Young said. “And one we feel like is worth taking with a player of Jacob’s caliber.”

Texas announced the signing after the 34-year-old deGrom passed his physical. A person with direct knowledge of the deal disclosed the financial terms to The Associated Press. The person spoke on condition of anonymity because the club did not announce those details.

The Rangers were also big spenders in free agency last offseason, signing shortstop Corey Seager ($325 million, 10 years) and second baseman Marcus Semien ($175 million, seven years).

The team said deGrom will be introduced in a news conference at Globe Life Field next week following the winter meetings in San Diego.

“It fits in so many ways in terms of what we need,” Young said. “He’s a tremendous person. I have a number of close friends and teammates who played with Jacob and love him. I think he’s going to be just a perfect fit for our clubhouse and our fans.”

Texas had modest expectations after adding Seager, Semien and starter Jon Gray ($56 million, four years) last offseason but still fell short of them.

The Rangers went 68-94, firing manager Chris Woodward during the season, and then hired Bruce Bochy, a three-time World Series champion with San Francisco. Texas’ six straight losing seasons are its worst skid since the franchise moved from Washington in 1972.

Rangers owner Ray Davis said the club wouldn’t hesitate to keep adding payroll. Including the $19.65 million qualifying offer accepted by Martin Perez, the team’s best pitcher last season, the Rangers have spent nearly $761 million in free agency over the past year.

“I hate losing, but I think there’s one person in our organization who hates losing worse than me, and I think it’s Ray Davis,” Young said. “He’s tired of losing. I’m tired of losing. Our organization is tired of losing.”

After making his first start in early August last season, deGrom went 5-4 with a 3.08 ERA in 11 outings. He helped the Mets reach the playoffs, then passed up a $30.5 million salary for 2023 and opted out of his contract to become a free agent for the first time.

That ended his deal with the Mets at $107 million over four years, and deGrom rejected their $19.65 million qualifying offer in November. New York will receive draft-pick compensation for losing him.

The fan favorite becomes the latest in a long line of ace pitchers to leave the Mets for one reason or another, including Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, Dwight Gooden and David Cone.

The Rangers visit Citi Field from Aug. 28-30.

When healthy, deGrom is perhaps baseball’s most dominant pitcher. His 2.52 career ERA ranks third in the expansion era (since 1961) behind Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw (2.48) and Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax (2.19) among those with at least 200 starts.

The right-hander is 4-1 with a 2.90 ERA in five career postseason starts, including a win over San Diego in the wild-card round this year that extended the Mets’ season. New York was eliminated the next night.

A four-time All-Star and the 2014 NL Rookie of the Year, deGrom was a ninth-round draft pick by the Mets in 2010 out of Stetson, where he played shortstop before moving to the mound. He was slowed by Tommy John surgery early in his career and didn’t reach the majors until age 26.

Once he arrived, though, he blossomed. He helped the Mets reach the 2015 World Series and earn a 2016 playoff berth before winning consecutive NL Cy Young Awards in 2018 and 2019.

But injuries to his elbow, forearm and shoulder blade have limited him to 26 starts over the past two seasons. He compiled a career-low 1.08 ERA over 92 innings in 2021, but did not pitch after July 7 that year because of arm trouble.

DeGrom is 82-57 with 1,607 strikeouts in 1,326 innings over nine big league seasons. He gets $30 million next year, $40 million in 2024 and 2025, $38 million in 2026 and $37 million in 2027. The deal includes a conditional option for 2028 with no guaranteed money.

The addition of deGrom gives the Rangers three proven starters along with Gray and Perez, who went 12-8 with a career-best 2.89 ERA in his return to the team that signed him as a teenager out of Venezuela. Young didn’t rule out the addition of another starter.

With several holes on their starting staff, the Mets have shown interest in free agents Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon to pair with 38-year-old Max Scherzer atop the rotation.

Now, with deGrom gone, signing one of those two could become a much bigger priority.