Next stop, stardom: 2011 breakout picks – Derek Holland

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Cliff Lee’s departure left a huge hole in the Rangers’ rotation and they signed rehabbing former Cy Young winner Brandon Webb in the hopes he could fill the void if healthy, but 24-year-old left-hander Derek Holland emerging as a front-line starter is the more likely way for Texas to forget all about Lee.

Holland was slowed by a knee injury last spring and began the season in the minors, but earned a call-up in mid-May by posting a 0.93 ERA and 37/7 K/BB ratio in six starts at Triple-A. He pitched well through three starts, but then looked nothing like his usual self against the Twins on May 30 and missed the next two months with a shoulder injury.

Holland returned from the disabled list in mid-August and threw 38 innings down the stretch, finishing with a 4.08 ERA, .247 opponents’ batting average, and 54/24 K/BB ratio in 57 innings overall. Toss in his 1.83 ERA and 85/27 K/BB ratio in 93 career innings between Double-A and Triple-A, and it’s easy to see the young southpaw’s star potential. His fastball averaged 92 miles per hour last season and Holland’s low-80s slider is his best pitch, with a solid changeup giving him the repertoire to thrive as a starter long term.

Being a fly-ball pitcher in Texas’ power-inflating ballpark works against Holland, but he misses enough bats and throws enough strikes to succeed even while serving up some long balls. Counting on Holland to truly replace Lee is obviously wishful thinking, particularly at age 24 and with just 31 career starts under his belt, but he has the ability to emerge as one of the top left-handed starters in the league and looks capable of taking the first big step this season.

My other 2011 breakout picks: Carlos Santana, Colby Rasmus, Justin Upton, and Brandon Morrow.

Collin McHugh headed to injured list with elbow discomfort

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Astros starter Collin McHugh will be placed on the 10-day injured list due to discomfort in his right elbow, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports. The Astros recalled Brady Rodgers from Triple-A Round Rock.

McHugh, 31, has struggled to a 6.04 ERA with a 48/16 K/BB ratio in 44 2/3 innings across eight starts and two relief appearances. If the elbow injury is really an elbow injury and not just an excuse for the Astros to give McHugh a reprieve, this could be bad news.

Rodgers, 28, posted a 3.22 ERA with 32 strikeouts and 16 walks in 44 2/3 innings in the minors this season. He had a cup of coffee with the Astros in 2016, yielding 14 runs in 8 1/3 innings. Here’s hoping his latest stint goes a bit better than that.