Springtime Storylines: Can the Tigers win their first division title since 1987? - MLB

Between now and Opening Day, HBT will take a look at each of the 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2011 season. Next up: Everyone’s favorite chain-smoking skipper.

The Big Question: Can the Tigers win their first division title since 1987?

They’ve had some close calls–including a final-week fade in 2006 (that ended in a trip to the World Series) and a Game 163 loss in 2009–but the Tigers haven’t won a division title since 1987, when they took the AL East with a league-high 98 wins. In the 23 years since the Tigers have just seven winning seasons and one playoff appearance.

However, the Tigers have been .500 or better in four of five years under manager Jim Leyland, twice finishing just a game out of first place, and this year Detroit is very much a contender in the stronger-than-usual AL Central thanks to adding free agents Victor Martinez and Joaquin Benoit to a team that went 81-81 in 2010. Johnny Damon was their only significant offseason departure and the Tigers have an impressive collection of frontline talent, but depth and defense loom as potential issues

Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera, and Martinez are an elite 3-4-5 trio, but the Opening Day lineup also figures to include sub par bats Alex Avila, Jhonny Peralta, Brandon Inge, and Will Rhymes, who’s filling in at second base for the injured Carlos Guillen. And while Guillen’s return would boost the lineup, a double-play duo of Peralta and Guillen should give nightmares to every pitcher on the staff. Ordonez in right field every day won’t do the pitchers any favors either and as always teams will run at will whenever Martinez is behind the plate.

Similarly, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are an elite top of the rotation, but the Tigers are counting on Brad Penny to stay healthy, Rick Porcello to bounce back from a disappointing sophomore year, and Phil Coke to successfully transition from the bullpen. If everything breaks right the rotation could be one of the league’s best, but there are questions that need to be answered first. Martinez and Benoit were bold signings for general manager Dave Dombrowski, but also contribute to a top-heavy roster relying on old and/or injury prone guys like Ordonez, Benoit, Guillen, Penny, and Inge to stay off the disabled list.

So what else is going on?

Detroit loves pitchers with big-time fastballs, as the staff led baseball with an average fastball velocity of 92.4 miles per hour last season and then added Benoit (94.0 mph) and Penny (94.1 mph) while moving Coke (93.6 mph) into a bigger role. Joel Zumaya is the king of the big-time fastballs and his health status is once again uncertain, but with Verlander, Scherzer, Valverde, Benoit, Penny, Coke, and Ryan Perry the Tigers have a staff filled with flame-throwers.
Verlander led AL starters in average fastball velocity at 95.4 mph and Scherzer ranked 10th at 93.2 mph, and together they racked up more strikeouts (403) than any duo in the league while combining for a 3.43 ERA in 420 innings. If a third starter steps up they could be scary in the playoffs.
Brennan Boesch got everyone’s hopes up by hitting .345 in the first half, but the rookie turned back into a pumpkin by hitting .163 after the All-Star break. He’s obviously not as bad those post-break struggles, but Boesch’s minor-league track record isn’t particularly impressive and despite a reverse platoon split as a rookie he’s probably best suited for no more than a platoon role with Ryan Raburn.
Miguel Cabrera got arrested for a DUI while driving to spring training and his off-field behavior has been making headlines for several years, but throughout the personal problems he’s never ceased being one of the best hitters in baseball. He shook off the pre-camp incident to hit .300 with power once the exhibition games started, homered in Game 163 two years ago shortly after being arrested, and is coming off the best season of his career. Whatever you think of him as a human being the guy is on a Hall of Fame path and so far at least the off-field problems haven’t hurt him on the field.
Austin Jackson finished runner-up in the Rookie of the Year balloting and would have gotten my vote over Neftali Feliz, but it’ll be interesting to see how he fares as a sophomore. Projecting improvement is natural for a 24-year-old, but Jackson’s rookie production was based largely on an unsustainably amazing .396 batting average on balls in play that led the league. That almost can’t help but come back down to earth at least somewhat, so unless Jackson cuts down on his league-leading 170 strikeouts or develops more power an even better second year isn’t guaranteed.

So how are they gonna do?

Much like the Twins and White Sox, the Tigers have a good but flawed roster that seems headed for 88-92 wins. I’d peg them for third place, but realistically all three teams are basically co-favorites and the Tigers may have the division’s highest ceiling.

The Philadelphia Phillies are leaving open the possibility for Bryce Harper to return to their lineup much sooner than the All-Star break, but that doesn’t necessarily mean a quicker-than-expected return for the slugger from reconstructive right elbow surgery.

While Harper will begin the season on the injured list, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Tuesday that the two-time National League MVP will not, for now, be placed on the longer 60-day IL that would mean he couldn’t be activated before the end of May.

“I’m not setting any dates, but I’m just keeping that option open rather than closing an option,” Dombrowski said from the team’s spring training facility in Clearwater, Florida.

After Harper had Tommy John surgery in November, the National League champions said they expected him back in the lineup as their designated hitter by the All-Star break in July. The slugger indicated the same when he got to camp last month, adding that they were going to be smart about his recovery and rehab.

Dombrowski said the timetable hasn’t really changed, and that the Phillies could still use the 60-day IL if they need to open a spot on the 40-man roster and know then Harper wouldn’t be back before the end of May.

“So it’s really not a great revelation other than to just say the reality is, I’m going to just keep our options open, because who knows what happens,” Dombrowski said.

Going into the fifth season of a $330 million, 13-year contract with the Phillies, Harper hasn’t played right field since last April 16. He had a platelet-rich plasma injection on his elbow in May and became a full-time designated hitter to finish the season, helping lead the Phillies to their first World Series appearance since 2009.

Dombrowski said Harper, who for now is still hitting soft toss in the batting cages every other day, is feeling great and has no pain.

“All I’ve said, and all I’ll continue to say, it’ll be before the All-Star break is our hope,” Dombrowski said. “But I’m also going to keep the option open that we’ll see what happens.”

DIAMONDBACKS CATCHER OUT

The Arizona Diamondbacks will go into the season without catcher Carson Kelly, who has a broken bone in his right forearm after getting hit by a pitch in a Cactus League game.

Kelly will likely miss several months, though manager Torey Lovullo wasn’t ready to discuss a potential timeline for the catcher’s return when announcing the diagnosis Tuesday.

“I always hope for a miracle and that there’s going to be an unbelievable recovery,” Lovullo said a day after Kelly got struck by a pitch from Chicago White Sox right-hander Gregory Santos.

Gabriel Moreno, the 23-year-old catcher the Diamondbacks acquired in a trade with Toronto during the offseason, could now become their starter. He made his big league debut last season hitting .319 in 25 games for the Blue Jays.

The Diamondbacks also still have Jose Herrera, their backup last season, and P.J. Higgins in their spring training camp.

“We’ve got to have our conversation and just watch these guys play. So to me, there is no leg up. Everybody’s neutral,” Lovullo said. “We’re throwing everything back into the pool and we’re going to start to figure out what to do. We’ve got some really good options.”

SORE CUETO

The Miami Marlins are being cautious with veteran right-hander Johnny Cueto, who is dealing with arm soreness just over a week before the start of the regular season.

First-year manager Skip Schumaker didn’t seem concerned Tuesday when explaining why Cueto didn’t do his scheduled work on a back field the previous day. Cueto had been set to throw about 70 pitches while simulating four or five innings.

“This is a time where there’s no reason to push through this general soreness,” Schumaker said. “If he needs another extra day, you give people extra days and that’s the value of spring training. You’re allowed to do that.”

Cueto, back in camp with the Marlins after making a start for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic, is scheduled for a bullpen session Wednesday. If all goes well, he could pitch in a game for the Marlins on Friday.

The 37-year-old Cueto is going into his 16th big league season. He pitched last year for the Chicago White Sox before his deal with the Marlins that will pay him $6 million this season and includes a $10.5 million team option for 2024 with a $2.5 million buyout.

Cueto allowed 11 runs over 3 2/3 innings in his two spring starts for the Marlins before going to the WBC, where he allowed three runs over two innings in his lone start.

NOLA AND SOTO

San Diego Padres manager Bob Melvin said Tuesday that there is “still a chance” catcher Austin Nola, who two days earlier was hit in the face by a pitch while batting, will get in another spring training game and be able to start the regular season with the team.

Melvin said Nola has a slight fracture to his nose, but no black eye or excessive swelling. The catcher could resume some mild baseball activity by Wednesday or Thursday.

“It’s remarkable to me,” Melvin said. “I’m shocked.”

Melvin also reported that Juan Soto got an MRI on his strained left oblique that has bothered him since a “B” game on Sunday.

“We’re thinking it’s fairly mild,” Melvin said of Soto.

DODGERS OPENER

Julio Urías is lined up to start on opening day for the Los Angeles Dodgers and that’s OK with teammate Clayton Kershaw.

Manager Dave Roberts hasn’t announced his scheduled starter for March 30 at home against Arizona. But Urías will pitch Friday in a Cactus League game against Milwaukee as he returns to Dodgers camp from participating in the World Baseball Classic with Mexico.

That would put the left-hander on regular rest for the opener and set Kershaw for the second game of the year.

Kershaw, a three-time NL Cy Young Award winner, has made a franchise-record nine opening-day starts for the Dodgers.

“I’m excited for Julio to get to do it,” Kershaw said Tuesday. “I’m assuming Julio gets to do it. He deserves it. It is a special thing to get to do it. I think it should be whoever pitched the best the year before and he did that.”

The 26-year-old Urías went 17-7 with a 2.16 ERA in 31 starts last season. He was 20-3 with a 2.96 ERA in 2021.

Kershaw, who turned 35 on Sunday, is a nine-time All-Star with five ERA titles. But he’s been troubled by injuries in recent years. The left-hander was 12-3 with a 2.28 ERA in 22 starts covering 126 1/3 innings last season.

LORENZEN UNCERTAINTY

The Detroit Tigers are unsure if right-hander Michael Lorenzen will pitch in another spring training game, making his availability for the start of the season uncertain.

Lorenzen, who joined the Tigers on a $10 million, one-year deal during the offseason, is dealing with a left groin strain. He was scratched from his scheduled start Monday.

“Day to day, it’s all we know,” Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Tuesday. “We’ll see how he feels the next few days. Can’t make an assessment until that time goes by and he gets his treatment and we see where he’s at.”

STEP FOR SOROKA

Michael Soroka is set to make his Grapefruit League debut for the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday, though the 25-year-old right-hander won’t be ready to be in their rotation at the start of the season.

Soroka hasn’t pitched in the majors since tearing his right Achilles in August 2020 and having three different surgeries. He then had hamstring tightness at the start of spring training.

After being an All-Star as a rookie in 2019, when he was 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA in 29 starts, Soroka tore his right Achilles three starts into the pandemic-impacted 2020 season. He tore that Achilles again the following summer, then was sidelined until throwing in six minor league games last year.