UPDATE: Rule 5 top pick Josh Rodriguez makes the Pirates

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UPDATE: So much for all that. Now general manager Neal Huntington has announced that Rodriguez will make the Opening Day roster after all.

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Prior to the Rule 5 draft in December the Pirates talked about not being particularly excited about their options with the No. 1 pick and then made a selection that was widely panned, taking infielder Josh Rodriguez from the Indians.

In recapping the draft, Baseball America described Rodriguez as an “offensive-minded utility type” and “bench fodder, not a potential regular.”

Four months later Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette writes that Rodriguez “probably will not make the 25-man roster out of spring training” and the Pirates must offer him back to the Indians if he doesn’t remain on the major-league roster all season.

That may seem like a misstep by the Pirates, particularly since everyone is so used to their making missteps over the years, but ultimately the Rule 5 draft is a crapshoot where the success stories are few and far between and even teams with the No. 1 pick rarely strike gold. In fact, the No. 1 pick in the Rule 5 draft failed to stick in the majors all season in 2010 (Jamie Hoffman), 2009 (Terrell Young), 2008 (Tim Lahey), and 2007 (Ryan Goleski).

There have been plenty of worthwhile Rule 5 selections during that time, including stars like Josh Hamilton and Joakim Soria, but it looks like the No. 1 pick will fail to stick for the fifth straight season.