Baseball’s official historian slams statistical analysis

49 Comments

What’s more unexpected: me linking a Bleacher Report column or baseball’s official historian — and sometime sabermetrician — John Thorn talking about how apocryphal tales are preferable to the actual nuts and bolts of what happened on the baseball diamond?

For a whole generation of fans and fantasy players, stats have begun to outstrip story and that seems to me a sad thing. Even the unverifiable hogwash that passed for fact or informed opinion in baseball circles not so long ago seems today wistfully enticing, for its energy if nothing else … Frankly, in today’s baseball writing I miss such [broadcaster Bill Stern’s] balderdash: the wink and the nudge of a Barnum or the tall-tale bluster of a Davy Crockett. Amid today’s mix of straight-on account and sabermetric analysis, I miss the fun …

… A decade ago, when counterintuitive strategy briefly was fashionable, someone thoughtfully provided a list of the all-time leaders in receiving intentional bases on balls with no one on base. This put me in mind of Thoreau’s remark in Walden: “It is not worth the while to go round the world to count the cats in Zanzibar.” Fixate on the particular and you miss the big story.

Except, the big story is often baloney without the particulars.

The reason why someone might measure intentional walks with no one on base is to figure out how fearsome the hitter was at the time in the eyes of his contemporaries.  To take that analysis away and rely on “ripping yarns,” you get people simply asserting that a certain player — like, say, Jim Rice — was feared when, in fact, he really wasn’t as scary as everyone says. Oh, and then that allegedly fearsome guy gets elected to the Hall of Fame based, primarily, on the strength of a ripping yarn as opposed to merit or even fact.

There is such a thing as bad or pointless statistical analysis, sure, but one of the biggest reasons sabermetrics exists is because there was so much bad narrative history being done that it left a significant segment of the fan base (i.e. the future statheads) dissatisfied with the way baseball was handling its history. It’s entirely possible to lose sight of the big picture when you dig into the numbers, but it’s just as easy — I’d say easier — to lose sight of what actually occurred when you rely on anecdote and memory.

The point of any worthwhile sabermetric analysis is to answer a human question, not to traffic in numbers for numbers’ sake.  Human questions that help illuminate baseball’s history in ways that, one would hope anyway, would inform someone who was just named baseball’s official historian.  That he seems to be missing this is somewhat unsettling.

Report: Orioles to name Brandon Hyde new manager

Jason Miller/Getty Images
Leave a comment

Update (8:23 PM ET): MASN’s Roch Kubatko talked to new GM Mike Elias, who said there has been no offer made to Hyde for the position. Elias called the report “premature.”

*

The Orioles are expected to name Cubs bench coach Brandon Hyde as the new manager, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. Nothing is official yet.

Hyde, 45, spent four seasons in the minors with the White Sox from 1997-2000, then played in the independent Western League in 2001 before calling it quits. He was a coach with the Marlins from 2010-12 and has been with the Cubs since 2013.

Other candidates for the Orioles’ open managerial position have included Pedro Grifol, Chip Hale, Mike Redmond, Mike Bell, and Manny Acta.

Hyde is taking over for Buck Showalter, who was at the helm of the Orioles from 2010-18. Last season, however, the Orioles finished 47-115, the worst record in team history. Hyde will be taking over a team that is rebuilding, so the expectations will be relatively low in his first couple of seasons.