Odds: Over/under win totals for National League teams

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Bookmaker.com has posted its initial over/under odds for regular season team wins. Here are the National League totals (for entertainment purposes only, of course):

Phillies          97
Giants            88
Braves            88
Rockies           87
Reds              86.5
Brewers           85.5
Cardinals         83.5
Dodgers           83
Cubs              82
Marlins           81.5
Mets              77
Padres            76
Diamondbacks      72.5
Astros            72.5
Nationals         72
Pirates           67

Just about everyone would agree that the Phillies are clearly the class of the National League and probably enter the season as World Series favorites, but 97 wins is an exceptionally high baseline for even a great on-paper team. For example, the last NL team to win more than 97 games was the Cardinals in 2005 and a total of just six NL teams have topped 97 wins since 2000. Philadelphia is definitely capable of joining that group, but I’m not sure it makes sense to bet on it.

Colorado also stands out as a strong “under” bet at 87 wins considering they won 83 games last season and didn’t really make any significant offseason additions. Plus, it’s not as if Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki can be much better than they were in 2010. I’m also not sure I see why the Cubs have an over/under as high as 82 wins after going 75-87 last season. They should be better after adding Carlos Pena and Matt Garza, but it’s tough imagine them being much above .500.

Adrian Gonzalez is really good and San Diego came out of nowhere last season, but setting their over/under at 76 wins seems pretty low coming off a 90-win campaign. I’d be surprised if they aren’t at least around .500. Arizona also seems like a solid “over” bet at 72.5 wins, as their historically awful bullpen–much like Seattle’s historically inept lineup in the AL–almost can’t help but be much better, particularly if J.J. Putz stays healthy.

With the caveat that I haven’t exactly spent a lot of time breaking down projections and crunching numbers to come up with these opinions, I like the Padres, Diamondbacks, and Mets the most for “over” and the Phillies, Rockies, and Cubs the most for “under.”

Braves minor leaguer Braxton Davidson fractures foot on walk-off homer in AFL Championship Game

Braxton Davidson
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Braves minor league first baseman Braxton Davidson played the hero during the Arizona Fall League Championship Game on Saturday, but followed up his game-winning homer with what appeared to be a broken left foot.

Braxton had just lofted a 2-1 pitch from Nationals left-hander Taylor Guilbeau in the bottom of the 10th inning and was making his way around the bases when he started hopping on his right foot as he neared the plate. After being helped off the field, that the infielder was quickly taken to a local hospital for further examination, the results of which have yet to be made public.

The 22-year-old helped lift the Peoria Javelinas to their fifth AFL title and second since 2017. He went 2-for-5 with a single and home run in Saturday’s finale over the Salt River Rafters. During the regular season, he completed his third consecutive campaign in High-A and slashed .171/.281/.365 with a career-high 20 home runs and a .646 OPS through 481 plate appearances.