OK, maybe Sox fans shouldn’t worry that much about Josh Beckett after all

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Yesterday I linked John Tomase’s dire warning about what the future may hold for Josh Beckett.  Today Bill at The Platoon Advantage picks Tomase’s analysis apart. Setting aside the notion that Tomase could have used more refined metrics with which to analyze Beckett, Bill observes that Tomase unwittingly stacked the deck against him:

Even assuming plain old unadjusted ERA is the way to go, though, Tomase went about it all wrong.  His cutoffs were 125 IP, 5.75 ERA, and age 30-39; Beckett had a 5.78 ERA, 127.2 IP and was 30 years old. By creating a set with lower limits at almost exactly Beckett’s numbers and with no upper limit, you’re capturing only a few who are Beckett’s age, almost none who were as good as Beckett and many who were much, much worse and/or much, much older.  What happened to Jack Morris at age 39, David Cone at 38 and Dave Stewart at 38 — and those three guys are actually mentioned in Tomase’s article — has absolutely no bearing at all on what’s going to happen to Beckett at age 31, even if their previous seasons’ numbers were superficially similar.

Unless you’re really happy with the notion that Beckett is going to crash and burn next year, you should read Bill’s entire analysis.

And remember, kids: stats are dangerous things, so be careful with them. With my family history and tendencies for abuse, I never touch the stuff.

Kolten Wong exits game with elbow contusion

Kolten Wong
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Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong was pulled from Saturday’s game against the Brewers after sustaining a right elbow contusion, according to a team announcement. The full extent of the injury has not been revealed, nor is it clear when Wong might return to the lineup, though he’s presumed to be day-to-day for the time being.

Wong suffered the injury in the third inning. He reached base on a line drive single to right field, his first of the evening, and was accidentally struck on the elbow when Wade Miley made an errant throw to Jesus Aguilar on a pickoff attempt. The 27-year-old second baseman has already seen his season shortened by injuries after sustaining a right thigh contusion and, more recently, dealing with a bout of chronic inflammation in his left knee. He entered Saturday’s contest batting .238/.323/.388 on the year with eight home runs, and a .711 OPS through 330 PA.

Following the incident, Wong was replaced on the field by Greg Garcia at the top of the fourth inning. The Cardinals currently lead the Brewers 4-1 in the bottom of the sixth.