Is the ‘Big Three’ effect overplayed?

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With Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels leading the way, it is easy to label the Philadelphia Phillies favorites to reach – and even win — the World Series.

Our viewpoint is particularly colored by having just watched them make the hard-hitting Cincinnati Reds look as helpless as Craig Sager at a postgame celebration.

But do the Phillies really have that big of an advantage over the other three remaining playoff teams? Jeff Sullivan of Lookout Landing crunched the numbers and the results are interesting.

Here are the records of the four playoff teams this season when their top three starters were on the mound:
Yankees: 59-25 (.702)
Phillies: 50-28 (.641)
Giants: 61-38 (.616)
Rangers: 44-36 (.550)

And here we have the same four teams, ranked in order of runs scored this season. Think the Yankees’ offense will come into play the rest of the way?:

Yankees: 859
Rangers: 787
Phillies: 772
Giants: 697

Writes Sullivan:

The Phillies have an awesome rotation. It’s the best one left. It is not so much better than anyone else’s that they ought to be the clear, undeniable favorites to take this thing home. As obvious as it sounds: we just can’t predict with any kind of certainty what’s going to happen, and all four of the teams remaining have an excellent chance.

Sure, the Yankees and Phillies are favored to meet in a World Series rematch, but I think these two series are going to be a lot closer than people think.

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Phillies walk off winners thanks to a poor decision by Marcell Ozuna

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The Phillies’ bullpen, which has not been good as of late, gift-wrapped Monday’s game for the Cardinals. Starter Nick Pivetta was brilliant, fanning 13 while allowing two runs in 7 1/3 innings. But things unraveled after he left the game. Victor Arano took over for Edubray Ramos to start the ninth inning with the Phillies leading 4-2, but he allowed a one-out single and a double. After striking out Harrison Bader, Arano appeared to strike out Yairo Munoz for the final out of the game, but the ball trickled through the legs of catcher Andrew Knapp, allowing a run to score and the tying run to move to third base. Lefty Adam Morgan came in to face pinch-hitter Kolten Wong. Wong tied the game up, sneaking a single into center field.

In the 10th inning, Jake Thompson gave up the go-ahead run on a leadoff home run to Tommy Pham. It seemed like it was just going to be another one of those losses that have become increasingly common for the Phillies lately. But the Phillies’ offense didn’t go down quietly, even though it hadn’t put a runner on second base since the start of the second inning when J.P. Crawford doubled. In the bottom half of the 10th, Hoskins blooped a single into shallow left-center to start the inning. Hoskins moved to second base on a ground out from Odubel Herrera. Matt Bowman intentionally walked Carlos Santana, then struck out Jesmuel Valentin. That brought up Aaron Altherr, who replaced Nick Williams after Williams took a baseball to the face off of the right field fence. Bowman fell behind 2-1, then threw a 90 MPH fastball that Altherr lined into left field. Rather than keep the ball in front of him, Marcell Ozuna decided to dive for the ball to make the final out, but he missed. The ball trickled past him, allowing the tying and the game-winning runs to score, giving the Phillies a come-from-behind win.

On the list of people happy to see Ozuna miss that ball are Altherr (of course), Arano, Morgan, and Thompson. But perhaps no one was happier than manager Gape Kapler. The win might help take the heat off of him somewhat after another poor performance from the bullpen. When a team struggles, everyone wants a scapegoat and Kapler is an easy target. He has been all year, undeservingly.

Phillies radio broadcaster and former major league reliever Larry Anderson said after the bullpen meltown, “Not everybody can pitch in the ninth inning. And I know Gabe Kapler thinks they can, but they can’t.” Aside from Ramos and Seranthony Dominguez (who was unavailable after throwing 52 pitches between Saturday and Sunday in Milwaukee), no one in that bullpen has been reliable. The closer, Hector Neris, just got optioned to Triple-A. You work with what you have, and right now, Kapler doesn’t have a whole lot. Thankfully for him, he wasn’t punished with another loss thanks to Ozuna.