Is the ‘Big Three’ effect overplayed?

10 Comments

With Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels leading the way, it is easy to label the Philadelphia Phillies favorites to reach – and even win — the World Series.

Our viewpoint is particularly colored by having just watched them make the hard-hitting Cincinnati Reds look as helpless as Craig Sager at a postgame celebration.

But do the Phillies really have that big of an advantage over the other three remaining playoff teams? Jeff Sullivan of Lookout Landing crunched the numbers and the results are interesting.

Here are the records of the four playoff teams this season when their top three starters were on the mound:
Yankees: 59-25 (.702)
Phillies: 50-28 (.641)
Giants: 61-38 (.616)
Rangers: 44-36 (.550)

And here we have the same four teams, ranked in order of runs scored this season. Think the Yankees’ offense will come into play the rest of the way?:

Yankees: 859
Rangers: 787
Phillies: 772
Giants: 697

Writes Sullivan:

The Phillies have an awesome rotation. It’s the best one left. It is not so much better than anyone else’s that they ought to be the clear, undeniable favorites to take this thing home. As obvious as it sounds: we just can’t predict with any kind of certainty what’s going to happen, and all four of the teams remaining have an excellent chance.

Sure, the Yankees and Phillies are favored to meet in a World Series rematch, but I think these two series are going to be a lot closer than people think.

You can follow Bob on Twitter, and get all your HBT updates here.

Cubs to acquire Daniel Murphy from the Nationals

Getty Images
10 Comments

The Chicago Cubs are going to acquire Daniel Murphy from the Washington Nationals. Jon Heyman reports that the Cubs will send back prospect Andruw Monasterio and a player to be named later in exchange. Craig Mish of Sirius XM was the first to report that the Cubs were the team that claimed Murphy off of waivers.

Murphy got off to a slow start this year coming off of major surgery but is hitting .300/.341/.442 on the season and has been particularly hot of late. Murphy is primarily a second baseman, of course, but he has played some first base too. The Cubs, at any rate, have a pretty flexible roster so they’ll likely be able to find a good amount of playing time for him at either position and, when he doesn’t start, he’ll be a great option off the bench.

Between this trade and the trade of Matt Adams to the Cardinals, the Nats have officially thrown in the towel on 2018.