So how did I do with those predictions?

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With not a whole lot going on today, I figured now would be as good a time as any to see how my preseason predictions turned out. The verdict: not as bad as it could have been, but about as random as you might expect.  Here’s what I had, with the team-links going to the full-blown team previews (* is the wild card):

AL East: Yankees, Rays,* Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays
AL Central: Twins, Tigers, White Sox, Royals, Indians
AL West: Angels, Rangers, Mariners, Athletics
NL East: Braves, Phillies,* Marlins, Mets, Nationals
NL Central: Cardinals, Reds, Brewers, Cubs, Astros, Pirates
NL West: Rockies, Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Padres

AL MVP: Kendry Morales
NL MVP: Troy
Tulowitzki
AL Cy Young: CC Sabathia
NL Cy Young:  Roy Halladay
AL Rookie of the Year
Austin Jackson
NL Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward
AL Manager of the Year:
Joe Maddon
NL Manager of the Year: Bobby Cox

Among the most laughable things was having the Padres in last place, having Kendry Morales as the MVP and having the Angels winning the west. The Padres came out of nowhere, so if anyone had them in first place back in April they were living in fantasyland.  If Morales doesn’t get hurt that Angels prediction is less laughable, but no, his presence alone would not have saved the season. The Rockies and Braves were my bold choices. Neither panned out perfectly, though I’m pretty sure I’m in the minority in thinking that Atlanta would make the playoffs. If Colorado had figured it out Tulowitzki had a good shot at the MVP, but alas it will not be.

Sabathia and Halladay were pretty obvious but pretty good preseason choices for Cy Young. Halladay will get it, I’m almost certain. When people have asked me lately I’ve given the pessimistic “Sabathia will win it” answer for the AL, but now that I think about it a bit more, I wonder if the tide (or the hysteria) has turned and Felix Hernandez won’t get it after all.  If not, my preseason comments about the writers not wanting to give it to a low win-total guy for the second straight year will have been somewhat prescient.

Heyward and Jackson as rookies of the year are defensible, but I’m guessing that I successfully predicted second place in each league rather than the winner. Picking the manager of the year is a toughie. Maddon and Cox weren’t nuts, but neither will get it. If the Padres and Rangers hadn’t played so well this year maybe Maddon and Cox would have gotten it.

I still think predictions are a sucker’s game, yet I still do them because they’re fun. So much so that I’ll certainly try to predict the postseason here in the next 48 hours.  I wonder how wrong I’ll be about that?

Texas Rangers ink free-agent ace Jacob deGrom to 5-year deal

Jacob deGrom
USA Today
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ARLINGTON, Texas — Jacob deGrom is headed to the free-spending Texas Rangers, who believe the health risk is worth the potential reward in trying to end a six-year run of losing.

The two-time Cy Young Award winner agreed to a $185 million, five-year contract Friday, leaving the New York Mets after nine seasons – the past two shortened substantially by injuries.

“We acknowledge the risk, but we also acknowledge that in order to get great players, there is a risk and a cost associated with that,” Rangers general manager Chris Young said. “And one we feel like is worth taking with a player of Jacob’s caliber.”

Texas announced the signing after the 34-year-old deGrom passed his physical. A person with direct knowledge of the deal disclosed the financial terms to The Associated Press. The person spoke on condition of anonymity because the club did not announce those details.

The Rangers were also big spenders in free agency last offseason, signing shortstop Corey Seager ($325 million, 10 years) and second baseman Marcus Semien ($175 million, seven years).

The team said deGrom will be introduced in a news conference at Globe Life Field next week following the winter meetings in San Diego.

“It fits in so many ways in terms of what we need,” Young said. “He’s a tremendous person. I have a number of close friends and teammates who played with Jacob and love him. I think he’s going to be just a perfect fit for our clubhouse and our fans.”

Texas had modest expectations after adding Seager, Semien and starter Jon Gray ($56 million, four years) last offseason but still fell short of them.

The Rangers went 68-94, firing manager Chris Woodward during the season, and then hired Bruce Bochy, a three-time World Series champion with San Francisco. Texas’ six straight losing seasons are its worst skid since the franchise moved from Washington in 1972.

Rangers owner Ray Davis said the club wouldn’t hesitate to keep adding payroll. Including the $19.65 million qualifying offer accepted by Martin Perez, the team’s best pitcher last season, the Rangers have spent nearly $761 million in free agency over the past year.

“I hate losing, but I think there’s one person in our organization who hates losing worse than me, and I think it’s Ray Davis,” Young said. “He’s tired of losing. I’m tired of losing. Our organization is tired of losing.”

After making his first start in early August last season, deGrom went 5-4 with a 3.08 ERA in 11 outings. He helped the Mets reach the playoffs, then passed up a $30.5 million salary for 2023 and opted out of his contract to become a free agent for the first time.

That ended his deal with the Mets at $107 million over four years, and deGrom rejected their $19.65 million qualifying offer in November. New York will receive draft-pick compensation for losing him.

The fan favorite becomes the latest in a long line of ace pitchers to leave the Mets for one reason or another, including Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, Dwight Gooden and David Cone.

The Rangers visit Citi Field from Aug. 28-30.

When healthy, deGrom is perhaps baseball’s most dominant pitcher. His 2.52 career ERA ranks third in the expansion era (since 1961) behind Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw (2.48) and Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax (2.19) among those with at least 200 starts.

The right-hander is 4-1 with a 2.90 ERA in five career postseason starts, including a win over San Diego in the wild-card round this year that extended the Mets’ season. New York was eliminated the next night.

A four-time All-Star and the 2014 NL Rookie of the Year, deGrom was a ninth-round draft pick by the Mets in 2010 out of Stetson, where he played shortstop before moving to the mound. He was slowed by Tommy John surgery early in his career and didn’t reach the majors until age 26.

Once he arrived, though, he blossomed. He helped the Mets reach the 2015 World Series and earn a 2016 playoff berth before winning consecutive NL Cy Young Awards in 2018 and 2019.

But injuries to his elbow, forearm and shoulder blade have limited him to 26 starts over the past two seasons. He compiled a career-low 1.08 ERA over 92 innings in 2021, but did not pitch after July 7 that year because of arm trouble.

DeGrom is 82-57 with 1,607 strikeouts in 1,326 innings over nine big league seasons. He gets $30 million next year, $40 million in 2024 and 2025, $38 million in 2026 and $37 million in 2027. The deal includes a conditional option for 2028 with no guaranteed money.

The addition of deGrom gives the Rangers three proven starters along with Gray and Perez, who went 12-8 with a career-best 2.89 ERA in his return to the team that signed him as a teenager out of Venezuela. Young didn’t rule out the addition of another starter.

With several holes on their starting staff, the Mets have shown interest in free agents Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon to pair with 38-year-old Max Scherzer atop the rotation.

Now, with deGrom gone, signing one of those two could become a much bigger priority.