San Diego has lost 22 of 34 since August 25th, when they had a six and a half game lead on the Giants. So it’s not like we should weep for them or anything, as their wounds are self-inflicted. But it is a bit sad that such an unexpectedly good season from them is most likely going to end on Sunday rather than extend into postseason land.
And “most likely” is the key phrase here. The playoff math, such as it is, breaks down thusly:
- The Padres could still win the division. How? By sweeping the Giants this weekend and beating them in a one-game playoff on Monday down in San Diego (this weekend’s series is in San Francisco);
- If the Padres sweep and if the Braves
lose all three of their games against the Phillies, no Padres-Giants playoff will be necessary. Why? Because, if both the
Padres and the Giants are assured of a playoff spot they’ll be co-NL West champs, the Padres will be
seeded as the champ in the playoffs and the Giants will be seeded as the wild card. The seeding is
by virtue of the Padres winning the season series from the Giants;
- The Braves playoff magic number is two, so any combination of Braves
wins and Padres losses that add up to two eliminates the Padres from
wild card contention. This could happen as early as tonight.
- If the Padres win two of three from the Giants and the Braves get swept, the Padres and Braves will play game 163 in Atlanta on Monday. Which, even if I don’t want that to happen because of my rooting interests, would be fairly awesome for baseball in general.
I think that covers it all (this involves simple math, and even simple math is a challenge for me). Basically, though, the Padres have to win all three games or they’re probably SOL.
And yes, if you think that part of the reason I wrote this post was so that I can use another pic of the Padres in their 1984 throwbacks from yesterday, you are absolutely right.