Report: Nationals unlikely to re-sign Adam Dunn because of defense (and one scout is insane)

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Reports about contract talks between Adam Dunn and the Nationals have varied so much throughout the season that it’s tough to know what to believe at this point, but today Ben Goessling of MASNSports.com writes that “sources familiar with the team’s thinking” believe “they’re likely to let him walk” as a free agent.
According to Goessling “the team continues to view Dunn’s defense at first base as a sticking point, and is reluctant to give him the four-year deal he prefers because of it.” Goessling quotes an opposing team’s scout as saying that “the only person in the front office who wants to re-sign him is the owner.”
The same scout went on to make the absolutely absurd claim that Dunn’s defense at first base “costs them half a run a game” and “is worse than it looks on paper.” In other words, there’s a person paid to watch and evaluate professional baseball players who thinks Adam Dunn has cost the Nationals about 80 runs with his defense this season. To put that in some context, the Nationals have allowed a grand total of 724 runs this season.
Not only has no first baseman in baseball history ever cost his team anywhere near 80 runs in a season defensively, you can be pretty certain no player at any position has ever been 80 runs below average in a single year. It’s a ridiculous assertion with no basis in reality that gets passed off as something other than worthless by virtue of the presumption that every scout knows what he’s talking about on all things baseball.
If you’re curious, Ultimate Zone Rating pegs Dunn as 1.9 runs below average on defense this season, which ranks eighth-worst among full-time first basemen. Prince Fielder has the worst first baseman UZR at -9.2 runs. Looking at all positions, Carlos Quentin has the worst UZR at 17.6 runs below average, followed by Jonny Gomes at -14.7, Matt Kemp at -14.6, and Carlos Lee at -13.9. In other words, according to UZR the four worst defenders and the worst defensive first baseman have been 70 runs below average this season … combined.
Whether or not the Nationals re-sign Dunn, they should consider themselves lucky not to employ that scout.

Report: Mets aren’t likely to trade Noah Syndergaard for prospect package

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Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Mets aren’t looking for long-term investment pieces in a trade for right-hander Noah Syndergaard, per unnamed sources. Instead, any deal the club makes will likely center on players who can make a difference for them in 2019 as they attempt to rise from last year’s fourth-place finish in the NL East and make a run at the postseason.

The 26-year-old starter has been a fixture of the Mets’ rotation since he got his start in the majors in 2015. Despite missing nearly the entire 2017 season with a torn lat muscle in his throwing arm, he returned to pitch his third full season in 2018 with a winning 13-4 record in 25 starts, 3.03 ERA, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.0 SO/9 through 154 1/3 innings and finished the year with his first complete game shutout, to boot. After receiving a $2.975 million salary in 2018, he’s slated for another three years in arbitration before entering free agency in the 2022 season.

So far this offseason, the Padres have been the only team linked to the righty, though they didn’t come close to completing a trade when they first inquired about him back at the July deadline. If the Mets are serious about dealing Syndergaard, as Rosenthal seems to suggest, they could very well look at acquiring another couple of arms to round out their rotation. Assuming Syndergaard is moved this winter, the team will enter 2019 with right-handers Jacob deGrom and Zack Wheeler, lefties Jason Vargas and (the oft-injured) Steven Matz — and relatively little depth behind the four.