Edinson Volquez likely a member of Reds' playoff rotation

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When pundits turn in their predictions in the coming weeks for this year’s version of the MLB postseason, our guess is the Reds aren’t going to be crowned as champions by many scribes.

Maybe part of that has to do with the club’s lack of playoff experience, and maybe part is based on Cincinnati’s generally lackadaisical attitude toward the team.  Others will point to the Reds’ starting rotation, which is now without stud rookie Mike Leake and probably the least talented among baseball’s playoff-bound teams.

Cincy’s three-man October rotation will most likely consist of Bronson Arroyo, who has a 4.05 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 30 starts this season, Johnny Cueto, 12-5 with a 3.31 ERA in 28 starts, and, according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Edinson Volquez.

Volquez spent a large chunk of the 2010 season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and serving a 50-game suspension for a positive PED test.  But he threw seven shutout innings and struck out 10 batters last week against Pittsburgh and allowed just six hits and fanned seven in 6 2/3 innings today against the Diamondbacks.

“He’s throwing it as well as anybody we have right now,” Reds manager Dusty Baker told the Enquirer Thursday. “That’s a positive sign. … His endurance is up. His velocity is up. … His tempo, rhythm and overall delivery are
better. He’s not forcing it. He’s letting it flow.”

The Reds are currently eight games up on the Cardinals in the National League Central.  Within the next week or two, they will be celebrating the organization’s first playoff berth since 1995.

Free agent market slow, but players who have signed have exceeded expectations

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The winter meetings are near the end — many execs are leaving Vegas tonight — and once again, the free agent market has moved rather slowly. Last year’s free agent market was perhaps the slowest in recent memory. This offseason, only 11 multi-year contracts have been signed by free agents to date. Six have been for two years, three have been for three years, one for four years, and one for six years.

Despite another slowly-moving free agent market, the players are optimistic because those that have signed contracts have exceeded expectations in terms of total value, per Jared Diamond of The Wall Street Journal. Patrick Corbin got $140 million, Nathan Eovaldi got $68 million, Andrew McCutchen got $50 million. Heck, even Lance Lynn coming off of a bad year got $30 million from the Rangers.

For comparison, as the offseason began, Fancred’s insider Jon Heyman (and an unnamed “expert”) made predictions about what the various free agent markets would get. Heyman and the expert predicted $100 million and $85 million, respectively, for Corbin, who got $140 million. They predicted $45 million and $64 million, respectively, for Eovaldi, who got $68 million. And they foresaw $39 million and $60 million for McCutchen, who got $50 million. Heyman predicted Charlie Morton would take the $17.9 million qualifying offer and the expert predicted he’d sign a one-year, $17 million deal. Morton got two years and $30 million. Heyman predicted 2/$16M for Lance Lynn and the expert only went a million higher at 2/$17M. He got 3/$30M.

Heyman isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, so let’s also glance at the predictions from MLB Trade Rumors. 6/$129M for Corbin, 4/$60M for Eovaldi, 3/$45M for McCutchen, 2/$32M for Morton, and 2/$16M for Lynn. MLBTR hit a lot closer to the center of the dartboard, so to speak, but generally the players still got a bit more than anticipated, which is good, and justifies the optimism. Hopefully the trend continues over the coming two or three months.

Going forward, though, we probably should adjust our expectations of the winter meetings. Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times brought up a great point, tweeting, “One problem with the Winter Meetings is they are still marketed as a news-making event at a time when executives no longer feel urgency to make news at said event.” All of the execs and journalists have access to one another via cell phones, so it’s become more of a hobnobbing event than a place to wheel and deal. These days, a deal could just as easily happen in the days leading up to or following the winter meetings. Maybe it’s just the new normal that we’ll be going into February with handfuls of free agents still looking for a new home.