GM says Brad Penny "below 50 percent chance" of returning

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Last month the Cardinals abandoned any timetable for Brad Penny’s return from shoulder problems and yesterday general manager John Mozeliak said the injured right-hander has a “below 50 percent chance” of pitching again this season.
Penny last pitched on May 21, so that means he could end up missing five months with what has been described as a “strained lat muscle.” I’m no doctor, but based on my various viewings of ER repeats that strikes me as a really long time for a not-that-serious injury.
Signed to a one-year, $7.5 million deal in the hopes that pitching coach Dave Duncan could work his usual magic on him, Penny pitched well before landing on the disabled list, posting a 3.23 ERA and 35/9 K/BB ratio in 55.2 innings.