Messing around with early-season playoff odds

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The great folks at Baseball Prospectus are once again running playoff odds for all 30 MLB teams, using a formula that plays out the rest of the 2010 season 1,000,000 times.  With pretty much every division up for grabs through June 2, it’s at least a fun thing to look at.

Not to spoil the entire read, but here are a few of the more interesting nuggets:

  • The Reds, who currently own a one-game lead in the National League Central, have only a 30.5% chance of winning the division.
  • The Cardinals, who trail the Reds, have a 63.5% shot at taking the NL Central crown.
  • There’s a similar scenario playing out in the American League East, where the Rays lead the Yankees by 2.5 games, but only have a 30.3% chance of winning baseball’s toughest division.
  • The Twins, with a 69.1% chance of winning the American League Central, have the highest probability of making the playoffs out of every team in the game.
  • Meanwhile the Orioles have the lowest probability of winning a division crown, with a 0.00038% chance of surpassing the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yanks and Rays.

Most of the readers here on HBT are probably already Baseball Prospectus fans, and possibly subscribers, but head on over and pay ’em a visit anyway.

Tim Anderson exits game with apparent ankle injury

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White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson needed help leaving the field after suffering an ankle injury in the fifth inning of Tuesday night’s game against the Red Sox at Fenway Park. Anderson was fielding a ball hit up the middle by J.D. Martinez, appearing to twist his ankle in the process.

Leury García moved from center field to shortstop and Ryan Cordell entered the game to play center field. Anderson was 2-for-3 with a double and a run scored on the night.

The White Sox should be able to provide more information later tonight or tomorrow. Anderson is in the midst of his best season, entering Tuesday batting .313/.338/.485 with 11 home runs, 37 RBI, 38 runs scored, and 15 stolen bases in 278 plate appearances.