First-quarter awards: NL Cy Young

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Here are the top 10 NL starters according to VORP, along with some relevant statistics.
1. Roy Halladay – 28.1 – 6-2, 1.64 ERA, 58/10 K/BB in 71 1/3 IP
2. Ubaldo Jimenez – 27.8 – 7-1, 1.12 ERA, 54/21 K/BB in 56 1/3 IP
3. Tim Lincecum – 23.7 – 5-0, 1.76 ERA, 69/15 K/BB in 56 1/3 IP
4. Livan Hernandez – 23.6 – 4-2, 1.62 ERA, 19/18 K/BB in 55 2/3 IP
5. Jaime Garcia – 21.3 – 4-2, 1.28 ERA, 42/20 K/BB in 49 1/3 IP
6. Barry Zito – 20.5 – 6-1, 2.15 ERA, 34/20 K/BB in 54 1/3 IP
7. Adam Wainwright – 18.6 – 5-2, 2.48 ERA, 49/15 K/BB in 58 IP
8. Tim Hudson – 17.8 – 4-1, 2.41 ERA, 23/19 K/BB in 52 1/3 IP
9. Josh Johnson – 17.3 – 4-1, 2.68 ERA, 63/18 K/BB in 57 IP
10. Roy Oswalt – 16.8 – 2-5, 2.62 ERA, 52/13 K/BB in 55 IP
I don’t think any of the relievers are worth throwing into the mix. Matt Capps and Tyler Clippard have provided the Nats with a ton of value in the early going, but Capps isn’t exactly dominant and Clippard has allowed a bunch of inherited runners to score while racking up his seven wins.
Most will be surprised to see Halladay ranked over Jimenez, but those extra 15 innings weigh pretty heavily.
I like VORP as a tool for balancing quality and quantity in cases like this, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. For one thing, here are the opposing OPSs of the batters faced by the top five:
Halladay – 719
Jimenez – 742
Lincecum – 688
Hernandez – 720
Garcia – 728
Jimenez has his sterling record despite facing one of the toughest schedules of any NL pitcher. Lincecum leads the NL in strikeouts and WHIP, but he’s been doing it against one of the league’s easiest schedules.
Of course, those things should begin to even out over time. I’d say Halladay and Lincecum remain the favorites to win the Cy Young Award this season. Jimenez did throw 218 innings last season and still perform better after the All-Star break than before. However, he doesn’t have the same track record of durability as the other two. Predicting the order of finish for the full season, I’d currently go: Halladay, Lincecum, Jimenez, Wainwright, Johnson.
But this isn’t about the full season. A quarter of the way through, Jimenez has been the NL’s top pitcher. I’d put Halladay second because of the innings and the schedule. Then it’s Lincecum versus Hernandez for the third spot. Hernandez has the advantage when it comes to ERA and strength of schedule. But Hernandez asks so much more from his defense. In the same number of innings pitched, Lincecum has a ridiculous 50 additional strikeouts. He’s also allowed four fewer homers.
First-quarter NL Cy Young
1. Jimenez
2. Halladay
3. Lincecum

Cardinals shut down Carlos Martínez for two weeks due to shoulder issue

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MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosh reports that the Cardinals are shutting down pitcher Carlos Martínez from throwing for two weeks because his shoulder strength isn’t where it should have been at this point. Langosch added that an MRI showed no structural damage in Martínez’s right shoulder.

Interestingly, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak didn’t sound too happy with Martínez offseason training regimen. Per Mark Saxon of The Athletic, Mozeliak said, “Obviously, there’s a history with Carlos’ shoulder and it would be probably in everybody’s best interest if he maintained a constant or perpetual approach to that program.”

Martínez, 27, battled oblique and shoulder injuries last year. He accrued just 118 2/3 innings, making just 18 starts. He was moved to the bullpen when he returned from the disabled list in August and finished out the season in that role. Still, Martínez managed a 3.11 ERA with 117 strikeouts and 60 walks.

Langosch reported last week that the Cardinals were considering using Martínez in relief again in 2019. The latest news may push the Cardinals to indeed use Martínez out of the bullpen once again. He will be reevaluated in early March, but there is a chance he won’t be ready for Opening Day.