Now that Jason Heyward has officially made the Braves it’s time to start thinking about what kind of rookie season he’s capable of putting together at age 20.
Here are his projections from a few prominent sources:
AVG OBP SLG OPS
Baseball Prospectus .274 .345 .461 .806
Rotoworld Draft Guide .267 .343 .440 .783
Baseball Think Factory .275 .341 .429 .770
Combining those projections has Heyward hitting .272 with a .343 on-base percentage and .443 slugging percentage, which is good for a .786 OPS that would put him about five percent above average overall. While those numbers may not match the incredible hype and expectations, throughout the entire history of baseball a grand total of just 29 players have qualified for the batting title with an above-average OPS as 20-year-olds.
The only 20-year-olds with an above-average OPS in the past 30 years are Roberto Alomar in 1988, Ken Griffey Jr. in 1990, Alex Rodriguez in 1996, and Adrian Beltre in 1999. That’s two sure-fire Hall of Famers, one likely Hall of Famer, and a former MVP runner-up with 250 homers through age 30. And no 20-year-old has done it since 1999. In other words, if Heyward has a .786 OPS this season Braves fans should be thrilled.
In fact, Heyward merely staying in the majors and playing regularly would put him in strong company, as only 19 outfielders have ever logged 500 plate appearances at age 20. Here’s the list: Griffey, Ty Cobb, Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Roberto Clemente, Al Kaline, Mel Ott, Cesar Cedeno, Tony Conigliaro, Vada Pinson, Rick Manning, Buddy Bell, Claudell Washington, Sherry Magee.
Put it this way: Throw those names in a hat and draw one at random. You’ll likely end up with a Hall of Famer.
One team has punched its ticket to the Fall Classic. Two teams are looking to join them, with the Dodgers carrying the distinct advantage. Los Angeles needs only a split in the final two games of the NLCS while Milwaukee needing to win both games at home. Doable? Absolutely. But to do it, the Brewers are going to have to wake up their sleepy bats.
NLCS Game 6
Dodgers vs. Brewers
Ballpark: Miller Park
Time: 8:39 PM Eastern
Pitchers: Hyun-Jin Ryu vs Wade Miley
The Dodgers will give the ball to left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, who tossed seven shutout innings in Game 1 of the NLDS but allowed two runs and tossed 72 pitches, failing to get out of the fifth inning, in Game 2 against Milwaukee. Even if he again turns in a short outing Dave Roberts should feel pretty confident, however, as the Dodgers’ bullpen — considered a question mark coming into this series — has allowed only three runs in in 21 and two-thirds innings of work.
For Milwaukee it’s once again Wade Miley, who was the Game 5 “starter,” but who pitched to only one batter. I suppose it’s possible that Craig Counsell will burn him like that again, but it seems more likely that Miley will actually pitch in this game rather than be used as a decoy.
As I noted the other day, though, the Brewers’ pitching gamesmanship has not really been a factor in this series. The real problem for them has been their offense. They’ve scored only 16 runs in five games while batting .219. That’s actually identical to the Dodgers’ run total and average overall, but L.A. has been better at distributing that meager offense. Milwaukee has been cold at the worst times, too, going 5-for-35 with runners in scoring position in the series, including one for their last 11. If that doesn’t change, their season ends tonight.