Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, and the Junior Circuit

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In response to my article earlier this afternoon comparing Matt Holliday and Jason Bay, several commenters focused on the fact that Bay out-performed Holliday in their respective time as American Leaguers. In fact, one commenter went so far as to say that Holliday “stunk” during his brief AL stint.
For several years now there’s been a clear talent gap between the two leagues, but it’s still important to put things in some context rather than just latching onto whatever theory seems to fit the conventional wisdom.
In this case Holliday has played a grand total of 93 games in the American League, which is hardly a large enough sample to form any sort of meaningful, wide-ranging conclusions. After all, how many mediocre players make All-Star teams based on one great half-season, only to fall right back into mediocrity? Beyond that, Holliday hit .286/.378/.454 in those 93 games with the A’s, which is an .831 OPS in a pitcher’s ballpark.
That works out to an adjusted OPS+ of 120, which a) isn’t that far off from Holliday’s career mark of 133, b) would rank 40th among all active players sandwiched in between Derek Jeter and Victor Martinez, and c) is nowhere near the performance of someone who “stunk.” Or put another way, guys with a career OPS+ of 133 have an OPS+ of 120 over 93-game stretches all the time without it meaning anything whatsoever.
Bay has played 200 games in the AL while hitting .274/.380/.534 in a much better ballpark for hitters, which is good for a 132 OPS+. So yes, based solely on their performances in the AL–which represents only a small fraction of their careers–Bay was better than Holliday. But is a 132 OPS+ in 200 games so superior to a 120 OPS+ in 93 games to conclude that one guy is great in the AL and one guy stinks in the AL? Of course not.
Both guys have played a lot of games in the majors and have plenty of data from which to evaluate their ability, so focusing on 93 games seems kind of silly. While general manager Omar Minaya and the Mets may disagree, Holliday is simply a better player than Bay. It’ll be interesting to see if he rightfully ends up with a bigger contract.

And That Happened: Monday’s Scores and Highlights

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Here are the scores. Here are the highlights:

Yankees 4, Angels 3: I know I wake up kinda early, but the fact that people were still tweeting about this game from Angel Stadium when I woke up tells ya that it was something of a marathon. Fourteen innings with starting pitchers pinch-hitting and all of that kind of zaniness. Not terribly dramatic, though, as it was tied in the third inning and no one scored again until the 12th. The teams traded runs that frame — Aroldis Chapman blew the save — and then played two more. In the 14th Yankees third baseman Gio Urshela, who hit a sac fly to give New York their temporary 12th inning lead, singled home the go-ahead run. Thanks to all of their injuries the Yankees lineup was so anonymous that a split squad lineup for a mid-March trip to Sarasota looked at it and said “damn,” but the Bombers have won six of seven anyway.

As for the Angels:

I don’t know about “all around,” Brad, given that y’all lost, but it’s good to see that fan-pleasing media savvy you cultivated in Detroit has not abandoned you now that you’re in Anaheim.

Mets 5, Phillies 1: Everyone was talking about Bryce Harper getting ejected last night. I know he’s a big star and stuff, but a player getting ejected for arguing balls and strikes is one of the least exciting things around. No one ever gets ejected for interesting things like, I dunno, dancing like Jarvis Cocker after taking a walk or something.

That would be dope.

Anyway, Steven Matz bounced back from his nightmare outing last week to allow only one run on three hits over six innings. Jeff McNeil homered. Peter Alonso was hit by a pitch with the bases loaded, which is one of the tougher ways to knock one in. The Phillies have lost four of five.

Diamondbacks 12, Pirates 4: Pittsburgh took a 4-1 lead into the seventh and then disaster struck. The Dbacks put up 11 runs in the seventh and eighth, which was bad enough, but it got worse. Pirates pitcher Nick Burdi appeared to seriously injure his arm, crumpling to the mound and doubling over in tears after throwing a fastball. This really sucks for a kid who had Tommy John surgery back in 2017 and now, no doubt, has something seriously wrong with his elbow or bicep. The Pirates will likely update today.

As for the Dbacks, Christian Walker hit a two-run homer, Eduardo Escobar homered and and finished with three RBI. It was the Dbacks’ ninth comeback win of the year. They’ve won 12 games overall.

White Sox 12, Orioles 2: José Abreu went 3-for-6 with a homer and five RBI. James McCann went deep for a three-run shot. The Orioles’ highlights: two errors from their shortstop, a base runner getting picked off of third base with the bases loaded and a reliever tossing three wild pitches in a single inning. They only drew 8,555 fans, though, so maybe they can pretend this didn’t happen.

Rays 6, Royals 3: Mike Zunino hit a two-run homer in the seventh to turn a 3-3 game into a 5-3 game as the Rays came from behind. Yandy Díaz, Brandon Lowe and Daniel Robertson knocked in runs as well. This was Zunino’s first game back after paternity leave so he probably had a bit more adrenaline coursing through his veins. Which, if he is a new father is actually terror, but let’s be nice and call it adrenaline.

Cardinals 13, Brewers 5: There were a ton of one-run games on Sunday. On Monday we get three teams scoring more than a dozen and winning in laughers. Here Dexter Fowler atoned for his boner on Sunday by going 4-for-4 with a homer and driving in four. Paul Goldschmidt homered — his ninth — among three hits and three driven in. The Cardinals outhit Milwaukee 18-5.

Twins 9, Astros 5: Jorge Polanco had four hits, including a two-run homer and drove in four, Jason Castro dingered as well, Max Kepler and Nelson Cruz had RBI singles and C.J. Cron hit a two-run double. The Twins win their fourth straight. The Astros pitching staff has now allowed 29 runs in their last three contests.

Rockies 7, Nationals 5: If you’re gonna get your 998th career hit, why not make it an RBI double? If you’re gonna get your 999th career hit, why not make it another double? If you’re gonna get your 1,000th career hit, why not make it a homer that breaks a 5-5 tie late in the game and serves to be the winning run? That’s what Nolan Arenado did last night. A shame he didn’t make 999 a triple for symmetry’s sake, but that’s on MLB for not making me their show-runner. Mark Reynolds and  Raimel Tapia also homered for Colorado and Trevor Story extend his hitting streak to 11 games.

Athletics 6, Rangers 1: Toledo Ohio’s own Chris Bassitt tossed five shutout frames for Oakland. No, I have no idea if Toledo claims him with pride or anything. I mean, they should, but I just said that because I looked up his player page and saw that he was born in Toledo. For all I know his family actually lived in some hoity-toity neighborhood in Maumee. Which I guess would be fine. I had a client who once lived and owned a business in Maumee. Nice guy. He’s in jail, but the last time I talked to him he was in good spirits. Of course that was 13 years ago, he’s still in jail and has a few more to go on his sentence so he may be grumpy these days, but at heart I’m sure he’s still a nice guy. Don’t look at me like that. I did my best on that case.

Wait, where was I? Ah, yes, the A’s-Rangers game: Stephen Piscotty homered and drove in three and Matt Chapman added a sac fly. Fernando Rodney pitched in his 907th career game, which puts him 24th on the all-time list, passing Cy Young. Bob Melvin after the game: “Fernando Rodney broke Cy Young’s record, pretty cool stuff.” Get you a manager who tells dad jokes about you. Not one who says a 14-inning loss was “a great baseball game all-around.”

Tigers vs. Red Sox — POSTPONED:

This morning it was summer
By noon a cold front building
Where did you go?
Where did you go?
I got to find some shelter
’cause any minute now
It’s gonna blow
It’s gonna blow
But I don’t mind the rain
So strike me once again:
I’ve got nothing to lose
And it looks like we are in for stormy weather
With death and destruction coming through
Oh, look out there she blows
Now everybody knows:
Stormy weather always makes me think of you
And watch out ’cause the storm is coming through