Aroldis Chapman's star is on the rise

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Less than two days after Aroldis Chapman’s workout, the good feelings about the guy are starting to spread. 

After some piecemeal impressions on Tuesday, Jorge Arangure wrote an extended piece on Chapman’s workout yesterday. The key takeaways: contrary to some rumors about his post-defection partying floating around — I hear Andorra is NUTS, babies — Chapman appeared to be in great shape, having added some muscle and looking way less wiry and fragile than he did in the WBC earlier this year.  Also, his mechanics looked tighter, which suggests that his control may not be as bad as some people have worried. Finally, the concerns about the kid’s makeup seemed overblown. Arangure quotes an executive who spoke with Chapman: “He’s not a bad guy. He’s not an intellectual, but he’s certainly not dumb.” I guess that’s praise.

The upshot of all of this is that Chapman may be a hotter property than many suspected a week ago. Indeed, Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein tweets that insiders are predicting that he could get $30 million.

Gentlemen, start your bidding.  

MLB’s juiced baseball is juicing Triple-A home run totals too

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There has been considerable evidence amassed over the past year or two that the baseball used by Major League Baseball has a lower aerodynamic profile, leading to less drag, which leads directly to more home runs. If you doubted that at all, get a load of what is happening in Triple-A right now.

The minors have always had different balls than the majors. The MLB ball is made in Costa Rica at a Rawlings facility. The minor league balls are made in China. They use slightly different materials and, by all accounts, the minor league balls do not have the same sort of action and do not travel as far as the big league balls. Before the season, as Baseball America reported, Major League Baseball requested that Triple-A baseball switch to using MLB balls. The reason: uniformity and, one presumes, more accurate analysis of performance at the top level of the minor leagues.

The result, as Baseball America reports today, is a massive uptick in homers in the early going to the Triple-A season:

Last April, Triple-A hitters homered once every 47 plate appearances. As the weather warmed up, so did the home run rate. Over the course of the entire 2018 season, Triple-A hitters homered every 43 plate appearances. So far this year, they are homering every 32 plate appearances. Triple-A hitters are hitting home runs at a rate of 135 percent of last year’s rate.

Again, that’s in the coldest, least-homer friendly month of the season. It’s gonna just get worse. Or better, I guess, if you’re all about the long ball.

Which you had better be, because if they did something to deaden the balls and reduce homers, we’d have the same historically-high strikeout and walk rates but with no homers to provide offense to compensate. At least unless or until hitters changed their approach to become slap hitters or something, but that could take a good while. And may still not be effective given the advances in defense since the last time slap hitting was an important part of the game.

In the meantime, enjoy the dingers, Triple-A fans.