Free agent predictions review

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With everyone headed home from the meetings and a quiet night likely, it seemed like a good time to revisit some of the predictions from my Free Agency Preview columns. Here’s a list of the 18 signed free agents to receive guesses in those columns:
Ramon Hernandez
Guess: Reds – one year, $4 million
Result: Reds – one year, $3 million
Ivan Rodriguez
Guess: Rangers – one year, $1.5 million
Result: Nationals – two years, $6 million
Others will point to Brandon Lyon, but this is the real mindblower of the offseason to date for me. He’s certainly no better of a bet now than he was last winter, when he went unsigned into March and settled for $1.5 million.
Placido Polanco
Guess: Dodgers – two years, $12 million
Result: Phillies – three years, $18 million
Chone Figgins
Guess: Cubs – four years, $48 million
Result: Mariners – four years, $36 million + vesting option
I was guessing new ownership meant new money, but the Cubs aren’t shaping up as real spenders this winter. I’m still surprised no one stepped up and offered Figgins at least $10 million per year.
Pedro Feliz
Guess: Astros – one year, $2.5 million
Result: Astros – one year, $4.5 million
Marco Scutaro
Guess: Red Sox – three years, $18 million
Result: Red Sox – two years, $12.5 million + mutual option
Alex Gonzalez
Guess: Blue Jays – one year, $2.5 million
Result: Blue Jays – one year, $2.5 million
Randy Wolf
Guess: Mariners – three years, $36 million
Result: Brewers – three years, $29.5 million
The market for Wolf clearly wasn’t what I thought it’d be. If he had been offered arbitration by the Dodgers, he’d probably still be on the market looking for a three-year offer. The Brewers were more inclined to give him one because they didn’t have to surrender a draft pick.
Rich Harden
Guess: Orioles – two years, $18 million
Result: Rangers – one year, $7.5 million + mutual option
The fun thing about this prediction is that the Rangers could only sign Harden after dumping Kevin Millwood’s contract on the Orioles.
Andy Pettitte
Guess: Yankees – one year, $10 million plus incentives
Result: Yankees – one year, $11.75 million
Brad Penny
Guess: Brewers – two years, $16 million
Result: Cardinals – one year, $7.5 million
Carl Pavano
Guess: Diamondbacks – one year, $7 million
Result: Accepted arbitration
Rafael Soriano
Guess: Rays – two years, $14 million
Result: Accepted arbitration
Definitely the better result for the Rays. They’ll have Soriano at around $7 million for one year, and they were able to hold on to their first-round pick.
Billy Wagner
Guess: Orioles – one year, $7.5 million
Result: Braves – one year, $7.5 million + vesting option
LaTroy Hawkins
Guess: Astros – two years, $9 million
Result: Brewers – two years, $7.5 million
Brandon Lyon
Guess: Phillies – two years, $8 million
Result: Astros – three years, $15 million
The Astros could have had Hawkins for $7 million-$8 million over two years. Lyon isn’t deserving of the scorn some are dishing out right now, but Hawkins at his price surely seemed like the more attractive option.
Takashi Saito
Guess: Diamondbacks – one year, $4 million
Result: Braves – one year, $3.2 million plus incentives
Rafael Betancourt
Guess: Rockies – one year, $4 million
Result: Accepted arbitration

Max Muncy and Matt Beaty step on Rhys Hoskins’ ankle on consecutive plays

Rich Schultz/Getty Images
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In the 10th inning of Game 4 of the NLCS last year, infielder Manny Machado — then with the Dodgers — stepped on the foot of Brewers first baseman Jesús Aguilar. Aguilar, understandably, wasn’t happy about that and both teams’ benches spilled onto the field. It was a continuation of a tumultuous series for Machado, who was also vilified for not hustling and sliding hard into Orlando Arcia twice. The Machado-Aguilar dust-up served as a referendum on Machado’s character until he finally signed a 10-year, $300 million contract with the Padres.

Recently, Machado criticized the analysts on MLB Network for holding double standards. Dan Plesac and Eric Byrnes argued with Greg Amsinger about the Jake Marisnick collision at home plate with catcher Jonathan Lucroy. Amsinger felt Marisnick was in the wrong; Plesac and Byrnes defended Marisnick. On Instagram, Machado said if he had been the one who bulldozed Lucroy, Plesac and Byrnes wouldn’t have defended him, in part because he is Latino. Diamondbacks outfielder Adam Jones said earlier this year that Machado would “one hundred percent” be treated differently if he were white.

With that context in mind, something interesting happened in the fourth inning of Thursday afternoon’s game between the Dodgers and Phillies. Leading off the top of the fourth inning against Aaron Nola, Max Muncy grounded out to shortstop Jean Segura. As Muncy crossed the first base bag, he stepped on first baseman Rhys Hoskins‘ ankle. On the next play, Matt Beaty beat out an infield single hit to third baseman Maikel Franco, shifted up the middle. As Beaty crossed the first base bag ahead of the throw, he tripped over Hoskins’ ankle. MLB.com hasn’t posted video of the incidents yet, but here’s a look at both plays from @jomboy_ on Twitter:

We rarely see runners tripping over the feet of first basemen, but here we have it happening on back-to-back plays. Hoskins’ footwork around the bag was textbook given the situations. The commentators on the exclusive YouTube broadcast gave the runners the benefit of the doubt. Other than that, there has surprisingly been little discussion of these plays. A July 18 game isn’t exactly Game 4 of the NLCS, but look at how much conversation the Marisnick-Lucroy play generated and that was less than two weeks ago. These plays deserve a “Was it dirty?” conversation.

One wonders what the conversation would have looked like if it had been black or Latino runners stepping on Hoskins’ ankle on back-to-back plays. Would they have gotten the immediate benefit of the doubt like Muncy and Beaty? Would malicious intent have been ascribed to them instead? That, really, is Machado’s point about the double-standard applied to non-white players. It doesn’t excuse any of his obviously terrible behavior, but if we’re going to criticize players for bad behavior, we should do so evenly and fairly. Muncy and Beaty deserve criticism for their poor, sloppy, dangerous base running. Frankly, Major League Baseball should consider fines and/or suspensions. Machado was fined for stepping on Aguilar.