Free agent predictions review

Leave a comment

With everyone headed home from the meetings and a quiet night likely, it seemed like a good time to revisit some of the predictions from my Free Agency Preview columns. Here’s a list of the 18 signed free agents to receive guesses in those columns:
Ramon Hernandez
Guess: Reds – one year, $4 million
Result: Reds – one year, $3 million
Ivan Rodriguez
Guess: Rangers – one year, $1.5 million
Result: Nationals – two years, $6 million
Others will point to Brandon Lyon, but this is the real mindblower of the offseason to date for me. He’s certainly no better of a bet now than he was last winter, when he went unsigned into March and settled for $1.5 million.
Placido Polanco
Guess: Dodgers – two years, $12 million
Result: Phillies – three years, $18 million
Chone Figgins
Guess: Cubs – four years, $48 million
Result: Mariners – four years, $36 million + vesting option
I was guessing new ownership meant new money, but the Cubs aren’t shaping up as real spenders this winter. I’m still surprised no one stepped up and offered Figgins at least $10 million per year.
Pedro Feliz
Guess: Astros – one year, $2.5 million
Result: Astros – one year, $4.5 million
Marco Scutaro
Guess: Red Sox – three years, $18 million
Result: Red Sox – two years, $12.5 million + mutual option
Alex Gonzalez
Guess: Blue Jays – one year, $2.5 million
Result: Blue Jays – one year, $2.5 million
Randy Wolf
Guess: Mariners – three years, $36 million
Result: Brewers – three years, $29.5 million
The market for Wolf clearly wasn’t what I thought it’d be. If he had been offered arbitration by the Dodgers, he’d probably still be on the market looking for a three-year offer. The Brewers were more inclined to give him one because they didn’t have to surrender a draft pick.
Rich Harden
Guess: Orioles – two years, $18 million
Result: Rangers – one year, $7.5 million + mutual option
The fun thing about this prediction is that the Rangers could only sign Harden after dumping Kevin Millwood’s contract on the Orioles.
Andy Pettitte
Guess: Yankees – one year, $10 million plus incentives
Result: Yankees – one year, $11.75 million
Brad Penny
Guess: Brewers – two years, $16 million
Result: Cardinals – one year, $7.5 million
Carl Pavano
Guess: Diamondbacks – one year, $7 million
Result: Accepted arbitration
Rafael Soriano
Guess: Rays – two years, $14 million
Result: Accepted arbitration
Definitely the better result for the Rays. They’ll have Soriano at around $7 million for one year, and they were able to hold on to their first-round pick.
Billy Wagner
Guess: Orioles – one year, $7.5 million
Result: Braves – one year, $7.5 million + vesting option
LaTroy Hawkins
Guess: Astros – two years, $9 million
Result: Brewers – two years, $7.5 million
Brandon Lyon
Guess: Phillies – two years, $8 million
Result: Astros – three years, $15 million
The Astros could have had Hawkins for $7 million-$8 million over two years. Lyon isn’t deserving of the scorn some are dishing out right now, but Hawkins at his price surely seemed like the more attractive option.
Takashi Saito
Guess: Diamondbacks – one year, $4 million
Result: Braves – one year, $3.2 million plus incentives
Rafael Betancourt
Guess: Rockies – one year, $4 million
Result: Accepted arbitration

Phillies to induct Bobby Abreu to Wall of Fame

Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images
6 Comments

The Phillies announced on Wednesday that former outfielder Bobby Abreu will be inducted into the team’s Wall of Fame this summer. The ceremony will take place on Saturday, August 3 as part of the club’s alumni weekend festivities.

Abreu, 45, went to the Phillies in a November 18, 1997 trade with the then-Devil Rays that sent shortstop Kevin Stocker to Tampa. Abreu somehow only made two All-Star teams while in Philly. Overall, he hit .303/.416/.513 with 195 homers, 814 RBI, 891 runs scored, and 254 stolen bases in 1,353 games with the Phillies. Abreu ranks sixth all-time among Phillies in career Wins Above Replacement (47.2), fourth in on-base percentage (.416), seventh in slugging percentage (.513), second in OPS (.928), 10th in runs scored (891), fourth in doubles (348), second in walks (947), and seventh in stolen bases.

Perhaps Abreu’s most noteworthy accomplishment as a Phillie was winning the 2005 Home Run Derby at Comerica Park in Detroit. Abreu hit 24 home runs in the first round and finished with 41 total, both records at the time. That is his most noteworthy accomplishment as, through no fault of his own, the Phillies never made playoffs during his tenure from 1998-06.

Abreu’s tenure came to an end on July 30, 2006, when the club packaged him with pitcher Cory Lidle and sent them to the Yankees in exchange for Matt Smith, Carlos Monasterios, C.J. Henry, and Jesús Sánchez. Obviously, not a trade that worked out well for the Phillies. Abreu played through his age-40 season, spending time with the Angels, Dodgers, and Mets along with the Yankees. He retired with 60 career WAR, per baseball Reference, as well as a .291/.395/.475 batting line, 288 home runs, 1,363 RBI, 1,453 runs scored, and 400 stolen bases.

Phillies fans have always criminally underrated Abreu. He was viewed as lazy and uncaring, in part due to racism and in part due to a perceived aversion to outfield walls. Abreu’s induction into the Phillies’ Wall of Fame is a long time coming, but it will also likely spur a lot of debate on sports talk radio in the months leading up to it.