Twins offer Pavano arbitration; will he accept?

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Today has been filled with all sorts of news on the arbitration front and there will be more offers and non-offers rolling in tonight, but I’m particularly curious about one player’s status.
Minnesota offered Carl Pavano arbitration and because he’s a Type B free agent that guarantees the Twins a draft pick if he signs elsewhere. Pavano also has the ability to accept the offer, in which case Minnesota would be on the hook for whatever one-year contract the arbiter decides.
Given his lengthy injury history it might seem obvious that Pavano would simply accept what’s essentially a one-year deal at market value, but believe it or not he may have actually pitched himself into a multi-year contract by staying healthy for the first time since 2004. After a terrible April he went 14-9 with a 4.67 ERA in 181.1 innings for the rest of the year, including 5-4 with a 4.62 ERA in a dozen starts for the Twins.
No doubt many teams will simply stay away from Pavano because of his track record–I’ll go out on a huge limb and say that Brian Cashman won’t be giving him a call–but my guess is that at least a few other general managers have already been in touch with his agent. He tossed 199 innings while ranking among the AL’s top five in starts, walk rate, and strikeout-to-walk ratio, so unlikely as it may have been even six months ago there’s probably little risk of Pavano actually accepting Minnesota’s arbitration offer.
Ultimately the Twins will probably have to go beyond a one-year deal to retain him, which would be an awfully big risk for a 34-year-old whose upside is mid-rotation starter and downside is … well, disabled list resident.

Video reviews overturn 42% rate; Boston most successful

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NEW YORK (AP) Video reviews overturned 42.4% of calls checked during Major League Baseball’s shortened regular season, down slightly from 44% in 2019.

Boston was the most successful team, gaining overturned calls on 10 of 13 challenges for 76.9%. The Chicago White Sox were second, successful on eight of 11 challenges for 72.7%, followed by Kansas City at seven of 10 (70%).

Pittsburgh was the least successful at 2 of 11 (18.2%), and Toronto was 7 of 25 (28%).

Minnesota had the most challenges with 28 and was successful on nine (32.1%). The New York Yankees and Milwaukee tied for the fewest with nine each; the Yankees were successful on five (55.6%) and the Brewers three (33.3%).

MLB said Tuesday there were 468 manager challenges and 58 crew chief reviews among 526 total reviews during 898 games. The average time of a review was 1 minute, 25 seconds, up from 1:16 the previous season, when there 1,186 manager challenges and 170 crew chief reviews among 1,356 reviews during 2,429 games.

This year’s replays had 104 calls confirmed (19.8%), 181 that stood (34.4%) and 223 overturned. An additional 12 calls (2.3%) were for rules checks and six (1.1%) for recording keeping.

In 2019 there were 277 calls confirmed (12.5%), 463 that stood (34.1%) and 597 overturned. An additional nine calls (0.7%) were for rules checks and 10 (0.7%) for record keeping.

Expanded video review started in 2014.