Two million at Phillies' parade? Not likely.

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philliesparade.jpgWhat happens when baseball writers
are bored during the Thanksgiving holiday? They try to find out if two
million people actually attended the Phillies’ World Series parade in
2008.




Here’s a sampling of some of the investigative work of Peter Mucha of the Philadelphia Inquirer:

Along that four-mile stretch – about 21,000 feet – crowds packed
about 20 to 25 feet wide on each side. Suppose crowds were 30 feet deep
on each side – allowing spillage over the curbs or extra room in more
open spots – making 60 feet total, counting both sides.

That means the lines of onlookers filled about 1.25 million square
feet – nowhere close to the room two million Phils (or Flyers or 76ers)
fans would need.

The densest crowds (outside of Tokyo subway cars) have about 1 person every 2.5 square feet.

One person every 5 square feet is more likely, said McPhail, after reviewing photographs of the parade.

That means the parade-route throngs contained as many as 500,000 people – but perhaps as few as 250,000.

Combined with the stadiums’ 100,000, that’s a rough preliminary range of 350,000 to 600,000 people.

You get the point. Exaggerating the
size of large gatherings is nothing new, whether we’re talking about
political rallies or the Florida Marlins. If Philadelphia wants to
think two million people were there, good for them. It’s worth noting
that
an estimated 1.5 million people turned out for the Yankees’ parade earlier this month, a figure that seems much more realistic, if not conservative for New York.

Clayton Kershaw might return to the Dodgers’ rotation next week

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Dodgers southpaw Clayton Kershaw is nearing his return to the mound, according to club manager Dave Roberts. Both Kershaw (left biceps tendinitis) and fellow lefty Rich Hill (left middle finger blister) are scheduled to toss simulated games on Saturday; depending on the outcome, Roberts says Kershaw could forgo a minor league assignment and slot back into the rotation by Thursday.

Kershaw, 30, was diagnosed with biceps tendinitis as the team closed out their Mexico Series at the start of the month. He has not made a start in several weeks, but was finally able to resume throwing on Sunday and managed to get through two successful bullpen sessions. Though Dodgers’ ace hasn’t been completely injury-free over his 11-year career in the majors, this is the first significant issue he’s had with his pitching arm so far. The team is expected to take every precaution with the lefty, and will likely limit him to just four innings during Saturday’s simulated game.

Prior to his injury, Kershaw was working on another dominant run with the club, sporting a 2.86 ERA, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.8 SO/9 through his first 44 innings of the season. While Kershaw, Hill and left-handed starter Hyun-Jin Ryu served their respective terms on the disabled list this month, the Dodgers utilized a combination of relievers Ross Stripling and Brock Stewart, both of whom impressed during their limited time in the rotation.