Lincecum poised to break the arbitration bank

Leave a comment

Yahoo!’s Tim Brown reports that Tim Lincecum’s agents could file a $23 million arbitration figure if the Giants don’t come to their freakin’ senses and buy out the guy’s arbitration years.

$23 million would dwarf the previous largest request — Derek Jeter asked for $18.5 million in 2001 before settling on a ten-year contract.  The largest ever award to a guy with low service time like Lincecum was $10 million to Ryan Howard. Personally, I can’t see the Giants even submitting anything as low as $10 million as their arbitration number (remember: the arbitrators have to pick either the player’s number or the team’s number; they can’t split the difference).  He has already accomplished more than Ryan Howard did at this point in his career, and there is a good argument that there is no better pitcher in the game than the guy. Against that backdrop, it strikes me that the Giants would have to submit at least $10 million in order to not insult the arbitrators’ intelligence.

That said, I don’t think that the arbitrators would actually award $23 million. The process is defined by the search for comparables with a healthy dose of service time analysis, and while there certainly isn’t a comparable pitcher in terms of quality to Lincecum, there isn’t a comparable salary anywhere close to that either.  CC Sabathia makes that and he has eight years under his belt.  The arbitrators would certainly balk at just erasing nearly seven years of service time.

But clearly, Timmy is gonna get paid.  If the Giants move now and make a long term offer, they can make that paycheck (relatively) low on the front end, and allow it to grow as Aaron Rowand’s and Edgar Renteria’s contracts fall off the books in the next couple of years.  With a talent like Lincecum’s, it seems like the smarter play than gambling with the arbitrators.

Dustin Pedroia going back on injured list

Getty Images
4 Comments

Welp, that didn’t last long. Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia is going back on the injured list with more knee issues. If it matters the Sox say it’s not a big deal and they expect him back sooner rather than later, but they also said that his post-2017 knee surgery was just a “cleanup” at first and that basically cost him a year. So.

Pedroia has played in six games and is 2-for-20 with a walk.

I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that Pedroia’s career may be nearing an end. Sure, he’s under contract for two more years after this season, but he’s also in a unfortunate spiral that so many players experience in their mid-to-late 30s.

Running a website like this makes it all the clearer, actually. When you search a player’s name in our CMS, you get every post in which he appears in reverse chronological order. Just about every long-tenured player ends with about six posts in which he is alternately placed on and activated from the disabled/injured list. Then an offseason link to a big feature in which he’s written about as being “at a crossroads” followed by something vague about “resuming baseball activities” and then, inevitably, the retirement announcement. I can’t count the number of guys whose careers I can tick off in that way by browsing the guts of this site.

I hope that’s not the case for Pedroia. I hope that there’s a “Pedroia wins Comeback Player of the Year” post in the future. Or at the very least a silly “Miller’s Crossing” reference in an “And that Happened” in which I say “the old man’s still an artist with the Thompson” after he peppers the ball around in some 3-for-4, two-double game. I want that stuff to happen.

It’s just that, if you watch this game long enough, you realize how unlikely that is once a player starts to break down.