Phillies have a 12.5% chance of taking this thing

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Based on precedent anyway:

[The Phillies] are the 44th team to lose three of the first four games. Of the previous 43 teams, 41 played in a best-of-seven series. (The others were Boston in 1903, who won the next four games to take the Series, and the 1919 Reds, who won over the Black Sox).

Of the 41 teams who dropped three of the first four: They went 18-23 in Game 5. In Game 6, the remaining 18 teams went 8-10.

In Game 7, the remaining squads went 5-3. So, about one-eighth of the teams in this situation win it all. If you’re curious, the last seven teams to lose three of the first four couldn’t make the comeback.

With Cliff Lee on the mound you have to favor them to make it past hurdle number one, but I don’t see them winning out, no matter how much heart they allegedly have.

Reds top prospect Nick Senzel to undergo season-ending surgery

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Reds no. 1 prospect Nick Senzel is scheduled to undergo season-ending surgery on Tuesday, the club announced Saturday. Senzel tore a tendon in his right index finger on Friday and is not expected to make a full recovery before the 2018 season comes to a close, though any offseason activity has not yet been ruled out.

Prior to the start of the season, MLB Pipeline ranked the 22-year-old infielder first in the Reds’ system and sixth in the league overall. He made a fine impression in his debut with Triple-A Louisville, too, slashing .310/378/.509 with six home runs and eight stolen bases in 193 plate appearances. A call-up seemed inevitable at some point in 2018, though the Reds will now have to shelve any immediate plans for the third baseman as he works through a lengthy recovery process in order to take the field sometime in 2019.

Impressive numbers notwithstanding, it’s been a rough year for Senzel. He missed nearly a month after another chronic bout of vertigo and logged just 21 games in Louisville before landing on the disabled list again. This appears to be the first significant injury of his professional career so far.