Enjoy the win Angels fans, because you're about to be down 3-1

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Why?  Because this is CC Sabathia’s career line on three days rest, which is what he’ll be on as he takes the mound tonight:

Starts:  4

Record: 3-1

Innings: 26.2

Strikeouts: 26

Walks: 6

ERA: 1.01

Small sample size? Oh, absolutely. Fluky? Hard to say. Anything can happen in four starts, but over the course of his career, he has done much better with less rest than he has with extra rest. I’m no pitching expert, but the guy is a horse who gets so much of his power from his extremely ample lower body that his arm seems way less affected by a heavy workload than a lot of other guys. And given how badly Girardi has toasted his bullpen over the past two games, the Yankees are going to need CC to carry that weight.

Of course, even if Sabathia doesn’t come through tonight, he is set to go in a theoretical Game 7 on normal rest.  Which, despite last night’s game, is the reason why I seriously doubted Anaheim’s chances in this series.  To win it, they gotta beat CC Sabathia at least once.  From where I’m sitting, I’m having a hard time seeing it happening.

 

UPDATE:  Reader Mike Z correctly notes that I missed a short rest start for Sabathia.  He started Game 2 of the 2008 NLDS on short rest. He got beat up pretty bad. 

For what it’s worth, the reason I missed it is because Baseball-Reference.com — which lists days rest and on which I based this post — for some reason counts the playoffs and regular season games completely seperately and did not show Game 2 of the 2008 NLDS as a being in short rest. My bad. I should have cross-references his last regular season start and included the bombing he received at the hands of the Phillies.

That said, I stand by the prediction: I think CC will do well today, even if the underlying data is not quite as compelling as I mistakenly made it out to be.

Orioles’ pitching crosses 100 homers allowed mark in 48th game

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The Orioles’ pitching staff is on pace to obliterate the Reds’ record of 258 homers allowed in the season. When O’s starter David Hess yielded a three-run home run to Yankees outfielder Clint Frazier in the fifth inning of Tuesday night’s game, that marked the 100th homer given up by a Baltimore pitcher this season. They have played 48 games so far, putting them on pace to allow 338.

The homer was Frazier’s second of the night. He had also gone yard with a runner on in the third inning. Gary Sánchez opened the scoring in the first inning with a three-run blast of his own. As of this writing, the Yankees are leading 11-3.

Not that it comes as any surprise, but the Yankees’ offense has the Orioles’ number so far this season. The club has hit 73 homers on the season with 26 of them — 36 percent — coming against the Orioles. The Yankees have played 10 of their 47 games — 21 percent — against the O’s. The Orioles have also allowed 23 home runs to the Twins in six games so far this season