Enjoy the win Angels fans, because you're about to be down 3-1

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Why?  Because this is CC Sabathia’s career line on three days rest, which is what he’ll be on as he takes the mound tonight:

Starts:  4

Record: 3-1

Innings: 26.2

Strikeouts: 26

Walks: 6

ERA: 1.01

Small sample size? Oh, absolutely. Fluky? Hard to say. Anything can happen in four starts, but over the course of his career, he has done much better with less rest than he has with extra rest. I’m no pitching expert, but the guy is a horse who gets so much of his power from his extremely ample lower body that his arm seems way less affected by a heavy workload than a lot of other guys. And given how badly Girardi has toasted his bullpen over the past two games, the Yankees are going to need CC to carry that weight.

Of course, even if Sabathia doesn’t come through tonight, he is set to go in a theoretical Game 7 on normal rest.  Which, despite last night’s game, is the reason why I seriously doubted Anaheim’s chances in this series.  To win it, they gotta beat CC Sabathia at least once.  From where I’m sitting, I’m having a hard time seeing it happening.

 

UPDATE:  Reader Mike Z correctly notes that I missed a short rest start for Sabathia.  He started Game 2 of the 2008 NLDS on short rest. He got beat up pretty bad. 

For what it’s worth, the reason I missed it is because Baseball-Reference.com — which lists days rest and on which I based this post — for some reason counts the playoffs and regular season games completely seperately and did not show Game 2 of the 2008 NLDS as a being in short rest. My bad. I should have cross-references his last regular season start and included the bombing he received at the hands of the Phillies.

That said, I stand by the prediction: I think CC will do well today, even if the underlying data is not quite as compelling as I mistakenly made it out to be.

Cubs won’t make Kyle Schwarber available in trade talks

Kyle Schwarber
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Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Cubs won’t deal Kyle Schwarber this winter, despite multiple inquires from teams around the league. Schwarber is approaching his first year of arbitration and will remain under team control for another three seasons before reaching free agency in 2022.

The decision comes on the heels of one of the strongest seasons of the 25-year-old outfielder’s short career. Over 137 games and 510 PA for the Cubs, he proved a passable defender in left field and batted .238/.356/.467 with 26 home runs, an .823 OPS, and 3.2 fWAR in 2018. He also led the National League in intentional walks, with 20, and bumped up his total walks from 59 in 2017 to 78.

Despite his marked improvements from previous years, Schwarber’s performance still left something to be desired — specifically against left-handed pitchers, who held the slugger to a paltry .224/.352/.303 with four extra-base hits across 91 PA. Still, it’s evident the Cubs feel Schwarber is capable of strengthening his splits in the years to come, and they might stand to get more value from him on the field than they would in a trade this offseason.

Of course, that’s not to say the Cubs intend to pass the Winter Meetings in total silence, especially as they’ll be seeking bullpen and catching depth in advance of their 2019 run at the division title. As club president Theo Epstein remarked last week, “We’re certainly open and active in trade talks with a lot of deals that usually don’t come to fruition. So, we may make some trades. We could make big ones that transform the roster. We may make smaller complementary ones. But there’s certain things we’d like to accomplish.”