About that Cardinals Dodgers preview . . .

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Absent Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter carrying out a murder-suicide pact before tomorrow’s game, I won’t change my prediction that the Cardinals will beat the Dodgers in four games. I say this for two reasons: (1) my gut just likes St. Louis in this thing; and (2) backtracking on a prediction is weak sauce. If you’re going to predict something stick with it before, during and after, and take the credit and the lumps in equal measure.  It’s only baseball, after all, not medicine. No one is going to sue you if you’re wrong.

All of that said, this bears consideration:

The Cardinals grade out as the worst of the playoff teams with 83 wins against an average schedule.

Cardinals fans will, I’m sure, be up in arms at this characterization. By our measures, the Cardinals pitchers faced the second-easiest set of lineups and the batters faced the easiest set of pitching staffs, meaning they had the easiest schedule by a wide margin. (The Cy Young candidacies for Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are another discussion.) In addition to playing in the N.L. Central where the next best team ranked 18th in the majors, the Cardinals faced the A.L.’s worst division, the Central, in interleague play.

It’s less about what is being said — that the Cardinals, if they had faced at least an average schedule, would have only won 83 games — than who is saying it: Sean Forman. The same Sean Forman who founded and lords over Baseball-Reference.com, which is only the greatest invention since The Gutenberg Press.  I don’t like being on the other side of certified geniuses on most issues, and Forman may very well have a point.

But screw it. I’m still sticking with the Cardinals prediction. If for no other reason than that I don’t want to fall in with any analysis that may cause baseball to go the way of football where almost every single playoff conversation is about the schedule. It’s a tired, tired exercise that is more about whining than it is about analysis.  And like the man said: there’s no crying in baseball.

  

Watch: Christian Yelich continues to make a case for NL MVP repeat

Christian Yelich
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Christian Yelich simply can’t be stopped. The Brewers outfielder (and defending NL MVP) entered Saturday’s game with a league-leading 11 home runs after swatting two against the Dodgers on Friday night, then clubbed another two homers in the first six innings of Saturday’s game.

The first came on a 2-1 pitch from the Dodgers’ Hyun-Jin Ryu, who lobbed a changeup toward the bottom of the strike zone before it was lifted up and out to center field for a solo home run in the third inning.

While Chase Anderson and Alex Claudio held down the fort against the Dodgers’ lineup, Yelich prepared for his second blast in the sixth inning — this one a 421-foot double-decker on a first-pitch curveball from Ryu.

Yelich’s 13 home runs not only gave him a stronger grip on the league’s leaderboard, but helped him tie yet another franchise record, too. Per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, he’s tied with Prince Fielder for the most home runs hit by a Brewers player in a single month, and sits just one home run shy of tying Álex Rodríguez’s 2007 record for most home runs hit within any club’s first 22 games of the season.

It may be far too early to predict which players will finish first in the MVP races this fall, but there’s no denying Yelich has already set himself apart from the competition. Through Saturday’s performance, he’s batting .361/.459/.880 with a 1.329 OPS and MLB-best 31 RBI across 98 PA so far.