Healthy Hudson shouldn't come cheap

Leave a comment

I couldn’t help but have a different take on Dave O’Brien’s Tim Hudson piece than Craig did this morning.
My take being that O’Brien should stick to writing about the Braves and give up trying to predict the free agent market.
From O’Brien:

There’s no doubt in my mind (Hudson would) take quite a bit less than $12 mill per season to stay here in a multi-year extension, probably less than $10 mill per. And I don’t think any other team would offer him even that much right now, not until he’s back for a full, healthy and strong season.

I’m not going to argue against the idea that Hudson would take less to stay in Atlanta. But the idea that Hudson will need to settle for less than $10 million or even $12 million per year is bizarre.
Let’s just look back at last year’s contracts for free agent starting pitchers:
CC Sabathia – seven years, $23 million per year
A.J. Burnett – five years, $16.5 million per year
Derek Lowe – four years, $15 million per year
Ryan Dempster – four years, $13 million per year
Oliver Perez – three years, $12 million per year
Kyle Lohse – four years, $10.25 million per year
Not one of those pitchers can match Hudson’s career 126 ERA+ (ERA adjusted for league and ballpark). Sabathia entered free agency at 121 and is at 123 now. Lowe was also at 121. Burnett, who has never had a season ERA+ as high as 126, came in at 111.
And this year’s class isn’t nearly as strong overall. Other than perhaps wild card Aroldis Chapman, who probably isn’t ready to be an asset now, I see only one starter as a better bet than Hudson on a long-term deal, that being John Lackey.
Even that’s iffy. So what if Hudson underwent Tommy John surgery. He made it back in excellent time, and he’s throwing just as hard now as he was before the procedure. His groundball rate is actually better than ever, though it’s a very small sample size. That he’ll end this year having only thrown 65 innings or so, in my opinion, only makes him a better bet for 2010.
Hudson has been a workhorse throughout his career, and there’s no reason to think he won’t recapture that form now that he has a new elbow ligament. I’d take my chances with him at $50 million-$56 million for four years over Lackey at $75 million-$80 million for five.

Twins reach historic home run total during 11-4 rout of White Sox

Max Kepler
AP Images
3 Comments

The Twins trampled the White Sox on Friday night, cruising to a cool 11-4 lead over their division rivals and collecting their sixth double-digit win of 2019. Even more impressive, they picked up their 99th, 100th, and 101st home runs, a feat that’s rarely been matched in a team’s first 50 games of any given season.

The first homer of the night was delivered by Eddie Rosario in the third inning. Working against a single-run deficit, Rosario lifted an 0-1 fastball from the White Sox’ Reynaldo López, planting it firmly in the left field stands and evening the score, 4-4. Two batters later, Rosario’s solo home run got a sequel: a 398-footer from Miguel Sanó, this one postmarked for the upper deck in left.

In the fourth, now leading 5-4, the Twins saw a third and final homer from the bat of Max Kepler, whose center-field blast traveled a projected 397 feet to give the club a two-run advantage. Per MLB Stats, the Twins’ record — 101 homers in 50 games — stands second only to that of the 1999 Mariners, who managed to club 102 home runs before their 51st game of the season.

While the record has undoubtedly been a team effort, Rosario leads the pack with a team-best 15 homers so far this year, closely followed by C.J. Cron (13), Max Kepler (11), and Jonathan Schoop (10). Sanó, whose solo shot marked the team’s 100th home run of 2019, has just five, though there’s little doubt he’ll reach double digits before the end of the season.

According to MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park, the Twins also made it to an even 300 runs scored in 2019, for a satisfying average of six runs per game and a new franchise record (previous high mark: 273 runs scored in 1992). With the win, they improved to 34-16 on the year and continue to hold a comfortable eight-game lead in the AL Central.