Is Happ the NL Rookie of the Year?

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After tossing seven innings of
one-run ball in a 4-1 win over the Mets on Saturday night, J.A. Happ
improved to 10-2 with a 2.59 ERA (4th in the NL) and 1.17 WHIP (10th).
He has the lowest earned run average by rookie pitcher since Hideo
Nomo’s 2.59 ERA mark in 1995. Even more impressive,
Todd Zolecki of MLB.com found
that only 10 rookie pitchers in the past 50 years have finished the
season with an ERA lower than the 26-year-old southpaw. From a
franchise perspective, the last Phillies rookie have an ERA lower than
Happ’s was Eppa Rixley (2.50) in 1912.




Now, it must be pointed out that has
gotten a bit lucky behind a .225 batting average against aided by a
.251 BABIP. He has held the opposition to a .125 clip with runners in
scoring position, resulting in a stingy 85.7% strand rate (nearly 16
points above the league average). Naturally, it’s no surprise to see
his FIP sitting at 4.15. But while the one-time ROY favorite Colby
Rasmus has faded over the last two months (.230 with six homers and 13
RBI), Happ has pitched his best ball of the year (5-2 with a 2.20 ERA
over his last 10 starts).




Here’s a quick look at the top National League rookies (batters & pitchers) according to VORP:



1. J.A. Happ (PHI) – 44.9

2. Randy Wells (CHC) – 32.4

3. Dexter Fowler (COL) – 22.6

4. Tommy Hanson (ATL) – 22.6

5. Garrett Jones (PIT) – 22.5

6. Andrew McCutchen (PIT) – 20.2

7. Seth Smith (COL) – 20.1

8. Brian Sanches (FLA) – 18.5

9. Everth Cabrera (SD) – 17.9

10. Casey McGehee (MIL) – 17.7



Wells (9-6, 2.84 ERA) is easily
Happ’s biggest competition at this point, and certainly deserves
consideration regardless of whether the Cubs make the playoffs, but if
the Phillies lock down another NL East crown, I just can’t see the
Rookie of the Year award going to anybody else.




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Anthony Rizzo to wear walking boot for five to seven days

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Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo suffered what appeared to be an awful injury during Sunday’s game against the Pirates, twisting his ankle while attempting to field a bunt. An MRI revealed that he has a lateral sprain of his right ankle, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. Rizzo will wear a walking boot for five to seven days before being reevaluated.

Given that there are only two weeks left in the regular season, it seems doubtful Rizzo would be able to return to aid the Cubs’ NL Wild Card chase. The club entered Monday leading the second Wild Card by a game over the Brewers.

Rizzo, 30, is batting .289/.404/.516 with 26 home runs, 93 RBI, and 88 runs scored in 592 plate appearances on the year. Victor Caratini started at first base for Monday’s game against the Reds. The Cubs may also use Ian Happ, Willson Contreras, and Jonathan Lucroy at first base while Rizzo is out.