Projections and Paces – Indians

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The article below is meant to provide a quick look at how my
preseason projections match up with the paces of select major league
hitters.

Victor Martinez
2008: .278/.337/.365, 2 HR, 30 R, 35 RBI, 0 SB in 266 AB
Proj..: .296/.368/.459, 19 HR, 71 R, 92 RBI, 0 SB in 538 AB
Pace: .345/.424/.550, 26 HR, 112 R, 119 RBI, 0 SB in 615 AB

Martinez is on pace for new career highs in every category except
steals. He actually did have one stolen base in his rookie season in
2003. He hasn’t even attempted one since 2005.

Mark DeRosa
2008: .285/.376/.481, 21 HR, 103 R, 87 RBI, 6 SB in 505 AB
Proj..: .271/.350/.411, 15 HR, 85 R, 71 RBI, 7 SB in 557 AB
Pace: .280/.348/.479, 31 HR, 110 R, 114 RBI, 0 SB in 612 AB

DeRosa has raised his average from .236 in April to .291 in May to
.323 so far this month. His trade value is increasing as well.

Shin-Soo Choo
2008: .309/.397/.549, 14 HR, 68 R, 66 RBI, 4 SB in 317 AB
Proj..: .287/.367/.459, 15 HR, 84 R, 83 RBI, 11 SB in 516 AB
Pace: .297/.409/.464, 21 HR, 100 R, 98 RBI, 26 SB in 569 AB

Stolen from the Mariners for Ben Broussard two years ago, Choo has
turned into one of Cleveland’s building blocks. He is currently
sporting a .293/.388/.484 line in 748 major league at-bats, and he’s a
perfect 11-for-11 in his steal attempts this season.

Jhonny Peralta
2008: .276/.331/.473, 23 HR, 104 R, 89 RBI, 3 SB in 605 AB
Proj..: .273/.343/.449, 21 HR, 89 R, 88 RBI, 2 SB in 583 AB
Pace: .252/.331/.338, 5 HR, 45 R, 62 RBI, 0 SB in 529 AB

It looked like Peralta came out of his early-season funk when he hit
.316 in May, but his average is down again recently and he still hasn’t
found his power stroke. The Indians seem pretty frustrated, but it’s
not like they can give up on him. A return to form remains likely.

Ben Francisco
2008: .266/.332/.438, 15 HR, 65 R, 54 RBI, 4 SB in 447 AB
Proj..: .271/.333/.432, 12 HR, 60 R, 63 RBI, 13 SB in 431 AB
Pace: .233/.297/.372, 12 HR, 67 R, 55 RBI, 24 SB in 512 AB

Francisco, on the other hand, needs to be turned into a fourth
outfielder. It could well happen if Grady Sizemore returns. Also, the
Indians will want to give Matt LaPorta and Trevor Crowe real
opportunities after the break.

Asdrubal Cabrera
2008: .259/.346/.366, 6 HR, 48 R, 47 RBI, 4 SB in 352 AB
Proj..: .281/.352/.409, 10 HR, 77 R, 68 RBI, 9 SB in 531 AB
Pace: .316/.374/.427, 5 HR, 91 R, 64 RBI, 17 SB in 491 AB

Cabrera does fan quite a bit, so he wasn’t likely to keep up the
.316 average. Still, the Indians miss his offense and his defense even
more.

Blue Jays clinch 1st playoff spot since 2016, beat Yanks 4-1

Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
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BUFFALO, N.Y. (AP) Barred from playing in their own ballpark this year because of COVID-19, the vagabond Toronto Blue Jays have found a home in the playoffs.

The slumping New York Yankees, meanwhile, look likely to play on the road in the postseason, where they’ve struggled all year.

Hyun Jin Ryu pitched seven shutout innings and the Blue Jays clinched their first postseason spot since 2016, beating the Yankees 4-1 Thursday night and further damaging New York’s chances of hosting a first-round series.

New York lost for the fourth time in five games following a 10-game winning stretch and remained two games behind the slumping White Sox for the fourth seed. Chicago lost 5-4 at Cleveland, its fifth straight defeat.

“We’ve got to get it rolling again, obviously, if we’re going to get to where we want to go,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “I’m confident we can do it.

New York went 21-7 at home this season but was 11-18 on the road. Boone said he’s not concerned about that split even as a potential road playoff series looms next week.

“We’ve got to get ourselves in order and start playing really good baseball if we’re going to give ourselves a chance,” Boone said.

Toronto secured at least an AL wild-card spot and ensured its eighth trip overall to the postseason. The Blue Jays had endured three losing campaigns since their previous playoff trip, going 67-95 last season.

“I’m just so proud of my club and everything we’ve gone through all year,” second-year manager Charlie Montoyo said.

Canada’s federal government refused to allow games at Toronto’s Rogers Centre this season, citing the closed Canada-U.S. border and the travel risk associated with the pandemic. Stuck on the road to start the season, the Blue Jays eventually ended up at their Triple-A ballpark, Sahlen Field in Buffalo, but didn’t gripe about their fate.

“They never complained,” Montoyo said. “They had their mind set on getting to this moment right now.”

Blue Jays players embraced after Rafael Dolis struck out Aaron Hicks to end it, donning blue T-shirts that said “Respect Toronto.”

“This is something we want to make an every year thing,” infielder Cavan Biggio said. “For us, we’re happy, we’re excited we’re able to put ourselves in this position, but this is only the start of hopefully something special for a long time.”

The Blue Jays trail the Yankees by two games for second place in the AL East. Both teams have three games remaining. Toronto hosts Baltimore in Buffalo this weekend while the Yankees host the Marlins.

New York failed to hit a homer for the fourth straight game, matching its longest streak since June 2016. It’s the first time the Yankees have failed to homer in a four-game series since doing so at Texas in July 2013.

“I’m concerned with the way we’ve played recently,” outfielder Brett Gardner said. “Any time you’re not playing your best baseball and the postseason is right around the corner, something needs to be corrected rather quickly.”

New York loaded the bases with two outs in the eighth, but pinch-hitter Gary Sanchez flied out to deep center, where Randal Grichuk made a leaping catch at the wall.

“It’s good to see him get a really good swing off in a big spot,” Boone said of Sanchez. “Just unfortunately, that short.”

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homered for Toronto, his eighth.

Ryu (5-2) scattered five hits, walked two and struck out four. Luke Voit and Hicks hit back-to-back singles to begin the sixth but Ryu struck out Giancarlo Stanton, got Gleyber Torres to fly out, and retired Gio Urshela on a groundball.

“He’s an ace and he did what an ace does,” Montoyo said.

The left-hander lowered his ERA from 3.00 to 2.69.

Dolis got four outs for his fifth save in six chances.

Guerrero opened the scoring with a solo homer off left-hander Jordan Montgomery (2-3) in the second.

The Blue Jays extended their lead when Biggio and Bo Bichette hit back-to-back, two-out doubles in the third.

Toronto made it 4-0 in the sixth. Grichuk chased Montgomery with a single and Guerrero singled off Adam Ottavino before rookie Alejandro Kirk hit a two-out, two-run double.

Montgomery lost for the first time in four starts. He allowed three runs and six hits in 5 1/3 innings.

The Blue Jays finished 5-5 in their 10-game regular season series against the Yankees.

TRAINER’S ROOM

Blue Jays: RHP Nate Pearson (elbow) was activated off the injured list and RHP Wilmer Font was designated for assignment. . RHP Jordan Romano (strained right middle finger) will throw a second bullpen session Friday.

Yankees: Aaron Judge came on as a pinch-hitter but is expected to start all three remaining regular season games, Boone said.

SHARED DUTY

Boone said he expects to use both Sanchez and Kyle Higashioka at catcher in the postseason. Higashioka has hit well while working with ace Gerrit Cole, while Sanchez has struggled with both offense and his defense down the stretch.

SEVEN UP

Ryu became the first Blue Jays starting pitcher since Aug. 22, 2019, to pitch into the seventh. It had been an MLB-record 88 games since RHP Jacob Waguespack pitched into the seventh at Dodger Stadium last year.

UP NEXT

Yankees: LHP J.A. Happ (2-2, 3.25) starts Friday as New York returns home to begin a three-game series against Miami. RHP Sandy Alcantara (3-2, 3.12) starts for the Marlins.

Blue Jays: RHP Taijuan Walker (4-3, 2.86) starts Friday in the opener of a three-game series against Baltimore. The Orioles have not named a starter.