Orlando Hudson

Aaron Hill

Giving Aaron Hill $35 million another misstep for Diamondbacks


Arizona GM Kevin Towers has mastered the art of buying high and selling low this winter.

In giving Aaron Hill a three-year, $35 million extension on Friday, Towers made another high-risk, low-upside move.  Second basemen have a history of cratering earlier than most, and Hill is going to be 32-34 during the years his extension covers.

Of course, Hill was terrific last season, one of the NL’s 10 best players. However, he has a terribly inconsistent history on offense (Hill has a career OPS of .759, yet he hasn’t actually posted an OPS in the 700s since 2007), and his glovework has gone from outstanding in his mid-20s to above average now. He’ll almost certainly be a below average defender by the time his new deal ends in 2016.

The big problem here is that Hill is going to play this year at 31. His new deal doesn’t kick in until 2014. Contracts of this type for second basemen in their 30s are practically unheard of and for good reason.

According to Baseball-reference, Hill has accrued 21.4 WAR through age 30. Here’s a list of every other second baseman since 1900 to amass between 18 and 25 WAR through age 30 and what they did from ages 32-34, the years Hill’s extension covers.

Jimmy Williams – .195/.257/.235 in 374 AB – (0.7) WAR
Del Pratt – .313/.370/.437 in 1,702 AB – 10.2 WAR
Max Bishop – .271/.433/.368 in 1,053 AB – 8.5 WAR
Red Schoendienst – .293/.345/.403 in 1,688 AB – 9.7 WAR
Bobby Avila – .247/.334/.343 in 1,351 AB – 3.0 WAR
Ron Hunt – .285/.395/.320 in 827 AB – 3.7 WAR
Davey Johnson – .325/.411/.554 in 157 AB – 1.8 WAR
Dave Cash – .227/.287/.280 in 397 AB – (0.7) WAR
Steve Sax – .237/.287/.315 in 710 AB – (0.6) WAR
Bill Doran – .272/.372/.387 in 1,151 AB – 4.9 WAR
Robby Thompson – .217/.307/.340 in 692 AB – 1.7 WAR
Delino DeShields – .221/.329/.340 in 497 AB – 0.2 WAR
Ray Durham – .289/.360/.484 in 1,466 AB – 7.1 WAR
Luis Castillo – .270/.366/.315 in 1,031 AB – 0.9 WAR
Brian Roberts – .244/.308/.340 in 459 AB – 0.1 WAR
Orlando Hudson – .246/.318/.352 in 1,155 AB – 3.1 WAR

The old-timers don’t look so bad. Pratt, who played from 1912-24, sustained no drop-off due to age, and Schoendienst, a late-bloomer as a hitter, ended up in the Hall of Fame. However, of the 11 players here to play in the last 50 years (everyone after Hunt), only Durham maintained his previous level of production at ages 32-34. Most of the rest weren’t useful at all. That’s the tendency with second basemen: once they stop being quality regulars, their lack of versatility prevents them from contributing even as part-timers.

Taken altogether, the average player here produced 3.3 WAR from ages 32-34. The Diamondbacks  are expecting much more than that from Hill after guaranteeing him $11.67 million per year. History suggests they’ll almost surely end up disappointed.

The Blue Jays signed Julio Izturis, not Cesar Izturis

blue jays logo

UPDATE: Turns out the Blue Jays didn’t sign Cesar Izturis after all. Mike Cormack of Sportsnet.ca reports that the Blue Jays actually signed Julio Izturis, who is Cesar’s 23-year-old brother. He played with the Giants’ low Class A affiliate this past season.

Wednesday, 7:13 PM: After stops in Los Angeles, Chicago, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Baltimore, Milwaukee and Washington, Cesar Izturis is returning to the organization that originally signed him as a 16-year-old in 1996. He inked a minor league deal with the Blue Jays on Wednesday.

Izturis will battle to make the team as a utility infielder. He hit .241/.254/.343 in 166 at-bats with the Brewers and Nationals last season (though just four of them were with Washington).

If Cesar can make the team, he’d play with his half-brother, Maicer, for the first time in the majors. Maicer Izturis was signed to a three-year deal earlier this month.

In Cesar Izturis, Felipe Lopez and Orlando Hudson, the Jays had three top middle infield prospects come up at roughly the same time 11 years ago. The team opted to trade Izturis to the Dodgers for top pitching prospect Luke Prokopec after the 2001 season and go forward with Lopez at short and Hudson at second. Alas, Prokopec got hurt and was a bust. Izturis never did develop into much of a hitter, but he would have given the Jays some stability at short had they kept him. Lopez lasted just one year as the starter before getting traded, and the position has been a revolving door ever since, though Jose Reyes finally figures to change that.

Orlando Hudson not ready to retire, but job prospects for 2013 look bleak

orlando hudson getty

With his 11th season in the majors winding down White Sox infielder Orlando Hudson made it clear that he’s not ready to retire, but in looking at the 34-year-old’s performance it may not be entirely up to him at this point.

Hudson joined the White Sox after being released by the Padres and has hit .198 in 84 games overall, posting a .568 OPS after hitting .246 with what was at the time a career-low .681 OPS last season.

He’ll surely be able to secure a minor-league deal and a chance to compete for a roster spot in spring training, but Hudson’s days of being offered guaranteed money may be over and his lack of defensive versatility and diminished range at second base could make winning a bench spot difficult.