Chris Jaffe of the Hardball Times does an annual column projecting the Hall of Fame voting based on previous results and he’s had some remarkably accurate predictions in the past.
After crunching the numbers this time around Jaffe projects that Roberto Alomar will get in easily with around 87 percent of the vote and Bert Blyleven will also be inducted with about 80 percent. Both players were at 74 percent last year, which was Alomar’s first time on the ballot and the 13th try for Blyleven.
Jaffe projects that Jeff Bagwell will receive 35 percent of the vote, which is a depressingly low total for a player who’s clearly above the Hall of Fame standard for first basemen. However, according to Jaffe “only twice has anyone debuted as well as I’m predicting for Bagwell and not subsequently made it into Cooperstown.” He deserves much better than 35 percent on his first ballot appearance, but even that too-low mark bodes well for Bagwell making it eventually.
Check out Jaffe’s article to see projected vote totals for everyone else on the ballot prior to the actual results being announced Wednesday.
After spending the second half as the Astros’ hitting coach Jeff Bagwell stepped down from the position last month, citing the need to spend more time with his family and the longer-than-expected hours involved in the job.
Today the Astros announced that Mike Barnett will replace Bagwell as hitting coach, putting him in charge of an offense that ranked dead last or second-worst among NL teams in runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, walks, and homers.
Barnett has spent the past two seasons as the Astros’ minor league hitting coordinator, so he’s worked with most of the young players on the roster already, and before that he had multi-year stints as hitting coach for the Royals and Blue Jays.
Jeff Bagwell left his special assistant gig in Houston’s front office to take over as the Astros’ hitting coach when Sean Berry was fired at the All-Star break and the offense actually showed some significant improvement in the second half despite trading away Lance Berkman.
However, last week the former MVP turned down a two-year contract offer to remain on the job.
Bagwell plans to stay involved in the organization, perhaps returning to a similar front office role, but told reporters earlier this week that serving as hitting coach took him away from his family too much to continue:
I never got a chance to see my kids. They would get up and go to school at 7:30, and I’d wake up and go to the ballpark at 12 and never see them again. I can’t do that. My decision came down to the time the coaches put in, the effort they put in and my family. I don’t think I was going to be able to give all that kind of stuff for seven months and be away from my family and not be able to see my kids. When you’re playing, you have no idea what goes on in that coaches’ room, and in today’s game, it’s even more, because they have that video room where they’re in there every single second. It was a lot of time and a lot of work.
Chalk his half-season on the job up as another data point for the best players rarely making the best coaches, regardless of the sport.