Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton robbed Jason Heyward of extra bases on Tuesday night in Cincy …
St. Louis went scoreless in that eighth inning and then got shut down 1-2-3 in the ninth by Reds closer Aroldis Chapman as Cincinnati played spoiler against the first-place Cardinals with a 3-2 victory.
Pirates starter A.J. Burnett went on the disabled list on Friday with inflammation in his right elbow. He’s set to undergo an MRI on Monday. His final pitch on July 30 against the Reds, which resulted in Billy Hamilton reaching after a throwing error by Pedro Alvarez, may have been the last of his career.
Per MLB.com’s Tom Singer:
“It’s either [the ulnar ligament],” said Burnett, who had the requisite Tommy John surgery for that in 2003, “or the flexor [tendon]. I’m prepared for both. Either way, I’m not going to be bothered by the result.”
Burnett rules out surgery and vowed to not return “if I can’t throw, or if I’m throwing what I was throwing the other night. I can’t do it to these guys.”
The 38-year-old right-hander plans to retire after the season. After a disappointing 2014 campaign with the Phillies — during which he pitched with an inguinal hernia — Burnett has put together a great season back in Pittsburgh, sitting on a 3.06 ERA with a 114/36 K/BB ratio in 135 1/3 innings.
If it’s curtains for Burnett, he finishes with 163 wins over 17 seasons along with a 3.99 ERA and 2,484 career strikeouts.
At what point does speed outweigh a lousy OBP?
Joe Morgan was fond of saying that speed was the No. 1 factor in searching for a leadoff hitter. Statheads used to believe that OBP was everything, that it made far more sense to put a slow guy with a big OBP in the leadoff spot than a fast guy who didn’t get on base.
Billy Hamilton pretty much sucks at getting on base. But he’s so ridiculously good when he does get on that he’s a viable leadoff hitter anyway.
Hamilton has hit leadoff for the Reds 36 times this year and scored 27 runs in those games. Brandon Phillips, though, has been leading off while healthy these last seven weeks. He’s scored 19 runs in 37 games leading off.
Of course, that’s not really a valid test of speed versus OBP. Oddly enough, both have .280 OBPs in their time batting leadoff. Both have also hit three homers as leadoff man, so that doesn’t really factor in. And while Phillips isn’t quite a burner these days, he’s actually gone 6-for-7 stealing bases from the leadoff spot.
The run totals, even if they’re a bit fluky, suggest that Hamilton should be leading off for the Reds. His .280 OBP is probably worth about the same there as a .330 mark from a merely decent runner. He wouldn’t continue scoring three runs every four games if returned to the spot, but then, who does? Mike Trout and Brian Dozier currently lead the majors in runs scored (largely because they have 27 and 20 homers, respectively) and they’re barely better than that (.775 runs scored per game).
And the Reds’ alternatives simply aren’t any good. Phillips has never been an on-base guy, and the other four guys to have opened a game in the leadoff spot for the Reds this year (Zack Cozart, Skip Schumaker, Ivan De Jesus Jr. and Kris Negron) have posted even worse OBPs. Plus, Joey Votto has thrived on those occasions in which he’s hit second behind Hamilton. Unless the Reds somehow come up with a viable option in one of their upcoming trades involving Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake or Jay Bruce, Hamilton is going to be their best option at the top the rest of the way.