Josh Beckett vs. Yankees

First-third awards: 2011 AL Cy Young


On to the AL Cy Young Award race.  First, the league’s ERA leaders:

1. Josh Beckett (Red Sox): 4-2, 1.80 ERA, 63/25 K/BB in 70 IP
2. Jered Weaver (Angels): 6-4, 2.10 ERA, 77/20 K/BB in 85 2/3 IP
3. James Shields (Rays): 5-3, 2.15 ERA, 81/18 K/BB in 83 2/3 IP
4. Gio Gonzalez (Athletics): 5-2, 2.17 ERA, 63/28 K/BB in 62 1/3 IP
5. Dan Haren (Angels): 5-3, 2.29 ERA, 74/14 K/BB in 86 1/3 IP
6. Trevor Cahill (Athletics): 6-4, 2.31 ERA, 58/30 K/BB in 78 IP
7. Alexi Ogando (Rangers): 5-0, 2.33 ERA, 47/15 K/BB in 65 2/3 IP
8. Michael Pineda (Mariners): 6-2, 2.42 ERA, 66/19 K/BB in 63 1/3 IP
9. Josh Tomlin (Indians): 6-2, 2.74 ERA, 34/10 K/BB in 65 2/3 IP
10. Jeremy Hellickson (Rays): 6-3, 2.80 ERA, 46/27 K/BB in 64 1/3 IP

Notice the presence of two rookies and two sophomores who don’t miss rookie eligibility by much.

Next up is WAR, the Baseball-Reference version:

1. Josh Beckett (Red Sox): 3.2
2. Jered Weaver (Angels): 2.9
3. Trevor Cahill (Athletics): 2.7
4. Dan Haren (Angels): 2.5
5. Alexi Ogando (Rangers): 2.4
6. James Shields (Rays): 2.4
7. Zach Britton (Orioles): 2.3
8. Brett Anderson (Athletics): 2.2
9. Michael Pineda (Mariners): 2.2
10. Justin Verlander (Tigers): 2.2

There’s one more rookie.

And the Fangraphs version of WAR, which is based much more on FIP than ERA:

1. Jered Weaver (Angels): 2.7
2. Dan Haren (Angels): 2.7
3. CC Sabathia (Yankees): 2.2
4. Felix Hernandez (Mariners): 2.2
5. James Shields (Rays): 2.0
6. Brandon McCarthy (Athletics): 2.0
7. Josh Beckett (Red Sox): 2.0
8. Justin Verlander (Tigers): 1.8
9. David Price (Rays): 1.8
10. Michael Pineda (Mariners): 1.8

By trying to take luck out of the equation, Fangraphs generates a very different list. Cahill comes in at 1.0 in their WAR, ranking him behind four White Sox starters, including Edwin Jackson (4.63 ERA) at 1.6.

With Sabathia and King Felix in the top five, the Fangraphs list does look like something we might see at the end of the season. Still, I’m not a fan of basing pitching awards on FIP. I like it better as a predictive tool.

So, those are our candidates. I don’t see any relievers worth adding to the mix. Sergio Santos comes closest with his 1.40 ERA and eight saves in 25 2/3 innings.

Right now, I think the Cy comes down to Beckett and Weaver. Beckett has the nice ERA edge, while Weaver has pitched an extra 16 innings. Normally, I’d say the innings outweigh the modest quality gap. However, here’s one more set of numbers:

Opposing hitters OPS

Beckett: .756
Verlander: .735
Shields: .730
Weaver: .724
Gonzalez: .722
Pineda: .721
Cahill: .719
Haren: .716

Having made two starts against the Yankees and two against the Indians, Beckett has faced far-and-away the most difficult schedule of the top candidates to date. I think that rates him an edge in the competition.

As for the other spot, I’m favoring Shields. Verlander leads the AL in innings and has pitched better than his 3.12 ERA suggests, but Shields is just three innings behind him and has allowed 11 fewer runs.

AL Cy Young
1. Beckett
2. Weaver
3. Shields

First-third awards: 2011 NL Rookie of the Year

Craig Kimbrel

We’re one third of the way through the season, so it’s time to check in on the award races.  First up is the NL Rookie of the Year.

The candidates

Wilson Ramos (C Nationals): .252/.336/.403, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 0 SB in 119 AB
Darwin Barney (2B Cubs): .311/.333/.389, 1 HR, 24 RBI, 3 SB in 193 AB
Justin Turner (INF Mets): .337/.384/.467, 1 HR, 21 RBI, 2 SB in 92 AB
Danny Espinosa (2B Nationals): .205/.302/.420, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 4 SB in 176 AB
Jason Pridie (OF Mets): .239/.320/.413, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 4 SB in 92 AB
Juan Miranda (1B Diamondbacks): .250/.370/.490, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 0 SB in 100 AB
Freddie Freeman (1B Braves): .254/.335/.392, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 2 SB in 181 AB

Brandon Beachy (Braves): 1-1, 3.45 ERA, 46/12 K/BB in 44 1/3 IP
Josh Collmenter (Diamondbacks): 3-1, 1.49 ERA, 21/4 K/BB in 36 1/3 IP
Clayton Mortensen (Rockies): 1-2, 2.83 ERA, 21/15 K/BB in 35 IP
Sam LeCure (Reds): 0-1, 3.18 ERA, 30/8 K/BB in 34 IP
Craig Kimbrel (Braves): 1-2, 15 Sv, 3.00 ERA, 40/13 K/BB in 27 IP

Last year, the NL had a much stronger rookie pool than the AL did.  This time around, not so much.  It doesn’t help that two Cardinals who would be very much in the mix for the award, Allen Craig and Fernando Salas, are both ineligible because they spent too much time on the team’s roster last year.  Also ineligible are Houston closer Mark Melancon and San Diego reliever Ernesto Frieri.

That doesn’t leave us with a whole lot to choose from.  Let’s look at how WAR (Baseball-Reference’s version) ranks the candidates:

Josh Collmenter: 1.0
Wilson Ramos: 1.0
Brandon Beachy: 0.9
Danny Espinosa: 0.9
Clayton Mortensen: 0.8
Craig Kimbrel: 0.6
Sam LeCure: 0.6
Darwin Barney: 0.5
Jason Pridie: 0.5
Justin Turner: 0.5
Juan Miranda: 0.2
Freddie Freeman: 0.0

Craig would actually be the leader here at 1.1 WAR, with Salas right behind at 1.0.

But those two don’t count, and WAR isn’t really doing anything to distinguish the candidates. Based solely on the results so far, I’d have to give Ramos the nod, even though he’s struggled offensively all month and particularly so the last 10 days.

Beachy, who has been out since May 13 with a strained oblique, did enough in his first seven starts to justify a place in the top three. After him, it’s mostly about personal preference. Collmenter has the shiny ERA, but he has made just four starts since moving into the rotation.  Kimbrel has the huge strikeout total, but he’s blown four of his 19 save chances and the Braves may well have been better off with someone else working the ninth the last two months.

Espinosa gets points for defense and baserunning, and even though his slash line is mediocre, he has has driven in 29 runs in 53 games. Barney, the NL rookie of the month for April, is only really hitting for average and doesn’t measure up with Espinosa defensively.

As for the first basemen, they’re really not in the mix yet, but there’s fourth months left for that to change. Freeman has been a below average regular to date, and Miranda is just getting started now. San Francisco’s Brandon Belt could yet be a factor, as could San Diego’s Anthony Rizzo.

So here’s my current top three, with the caveat that I don’t think any of them will be at the top of the list when all is said and done this year.

1. Wilson Ramos
2. Brandon Beachy
3. Danny Espinosa

The President of the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum defends the decision to move the Legacy Awards Show

Negro Leagues Baseball Museum

Last week I posted  a link to Sam Mellinger’s story in the Kansas City Star about the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum’s decision not to hold its annual Legacy Awards Show this month.  Today I received an email from the President of the NLBM, Dr. Raymond Doswell, who takes issue with Mellinger’s characterization and, subsequently, my posting regarding it.  Dr. Doswell writes:


Thanks again for sharing information about the NLBM on your blog recently.  Let me say that much of what Mr. Mellinger wrote needs clarification.  He was, at best, “incomplete,” at worst “selective,” in his “reporting” of our plans.

Let me start by attaching the full press release regarding our awards and planned changes for the event moving forward.  I will also include you on our media blasts moving forward.

Some quick notes of clarification:

1.       The Legacy Awards were not cancelled; they were never planned for this year.  Not sure how you can cancel an event that was not planned.  It is traditionally held in January, but his date of last weekend for the event is his own creation.  One of the issues we always run into with January is being pinched between the Baseball Writers Awards in NYC, the Super Bowl, and the start of Spring Training. Plus, if you look outside, we are not having “chamber of commerce” kind of weather lately (8 inches of snow and ice just last week).

2.       It is not true that sponsors were not notified of the new direction.  As noted in our statement, we held a focus group with key sponsors and patrons after the last event to recommend changes.  The move from January to November was one of them in part for some of the reasons stated above.  We will have the 2011 season gala come back on 11/11/11 and it will feature centennial salutes to O’Neil and Josh Gibson.   We certainly wanted to announce things a lot sooner, I admit, and we may not have gotten notice to everyone we wanted sooner.  There was much happening in our leadership transition that needed to take priority.

We are very excited for our winners for this year and about our program moving forward.  The museum feels it has made a prudent decision to enhance all of our events for 2011 and position us for a great 2012 with the coming of the MLB All-Star Game.


I don’t deign to know enough about what goes on with the Museum to say anything particularly intelligent here.  At most I’ll say that, if Mellinger is correct and that the Legacy Awards have been held in January for the past decade, it’s a bit cute to say that “they were not cancelled; they were never planned for this year.”  Dr. Doswell admits that the decision was made late and that communication of it was less-than-ideal.  If that’s all it was, fine, but one of the signs of a healthy organization is that attention to this sort of thing is well-paid. Of course, as Dr. Doswell admitted to me in his email — and will admit to anyone who asks, I presume — the Museum is not where it wants to be and could use all the support it can get.

People familiar with the Museum will know best about this. For my part, I trust Sam Mellinger’s reporting and have come to have confidence in his opinions. Same for Joe Posnanski, who has previously voiced his concern over the state of the Museum and its management.  Still, in the absence of first-hand knowledge about this stuff, it seems only fair to provide Dr. Doswell with equal time, as it were. Read the press release in full. Read Mellinger’s piece if you haven’t already.  Read Posnanski’s from a couple of months ago.

Your Awards Week Preview

Mariners' Hernandez throws against the Blue Jays in their MLB American League baseball game in Toronto

Starting tomorrow, the Baseball Writers Association of America will announce the winners of the major postseason awards. Tomorrow is Rookie of the Year Awards (both of them), Tuesday is the NL Cy Young Award, Wednesday is both Manager of the Year Awards, Thursday is the AL Cy Young Award, next Monday is the NL MVP and next Tuesday is the AL MVP. All awards will be announced at 2PM Eastern. And of course, we’ll report the winners and analyze the bejesus out of it after it happens.

In the meantime, let’s refresh ourselves on the top candidates and make some predictions while we’re at it:


Who should win: I like Neftali Feliz in the AL, with his dominance making up for the fact that he only pitched 69 innings, but Austin Jackson — much more overall production in less spectacular ways — is a good choice as well.  In the NL it’s a battle between Jason Heyward and Buster Posey. That’s a really close call, as Posey was clearly more valuable defensively because he’s a catcher, but Heyward was pretty good in right too.  Posey was the better hitter thanks to Heyward’s midseason injury and his late swoon, but Heyward played all season, giving him an advantage in overall production. This is probably the toughest call of any award, but if I had to pick I’d probably say Heyward. Yeah, I realize I have a bias, but I’m doing my best to put it aside.  This, for me anyway, is all about that missing month for Posey and the acknowledgment that Rookie of the Year is not about the most valuable rookie, but who had the most outstanding regular season.  All of that said, you won’t hear me complaining if Posey gets it, because the dude was tough stuff this year.

Who will win: Remember: the ballots were sent in before the postseason, so none of the stuff Posey did in the playoffs — or that Heyward didn’t do — counts.  If it did, it would be Posey in a walk.  I think, however, that Heyward will edge him out by a very tight margin.


Who should win: I never know what to do with manager of the year. No one can explain a good way to measure the candidates against one another. It usually ends up with a “who did the most with the least” analysis, but there is all kinds of subjectivity that can be brought into that, if for no other reason than it’s hard to figure out exactly what a manager did to make a team overachieve expectations.  We give managers too much credit when they win and too much blame when they lose and likely always will.  Against that backdrop I’ll say that, if I had a ballot, I’d vote for Dusty Baker in the NL and Ron Washington in the AL. Ask me again tomorrow and I might say Bobby Cox and Ron Gardenhire. Ask me on Tuesday and I might say Bud Black and Joe Maddon.  I’m sorta conflicted about the whole thing, really.

Who will win: I’m guessing it will be Baker and Washington. If Bud Black wins, we’ll have to ask if his victory is less about the job he did as manager and more about the pundits’ serious misread of the Padres talent. We all were amazed by them, sure, but maybe we were just wrong, too. Wouldn’t a vote for Black really be about excusing our ignorance of how good that club really was? I mean, the team had a 10-game losing streak late that woofed them out of the playoffs. How many managers win the award when they do that?


Who should win: This has been beaten to death already. Felix Hernandez is my choice because wins don’t tell you jack about a pitcher’s value. I won’t rehash the arguments, though, because frankly, I think we’re all tired of it.

Who will win: So much of the Felix Hernandez Truther Brigade’s vehemence was based on our belief that those rotten know-nothings in the BBWAA would get it wrong and give the award to Sabathia. I’ll admit, however, with a month of perspective, we all went a bit nuts on that. The people who vote on the awards don’t write about who should win or lose beforehand. They’re prohibited from doing so. That means all of those people making boneheaded arguments in favor of Sabtahia and David Price are, by definition, non-voters.  I’ve talked to a few writers who have been around this block many times before, and they tend to believe that their voting colleagues actually favor Hernandez. We’ll see, of course, but there is probably some truth to the notion that those who derided Hernandez’s case the loudest are the least representative of the actual voting pool. Color me optimistic: I think King Felix takes this thing.


Who should win: Roy Halladay.

Who will win: Roy Halladay.

You were expecting more?  I’m not gonna bother, really, because I think Halladay taking this thing is the easiest call of any award so there’s no use wasting mental effort making a for-the-sake-of-argument case for Ubaldo Jimenez or Adam Wainwright or whoever. Doc was the best. QED.


Who should win it: Yet another close one, with Josh Hamilton and Miquel Cabrera each being excellent choices. Hamilton will get votes because of his league-leading OPS, his defensive value and the “he carried them to the playoffs” thing, Cabrera will get votes because he had more plate appearances thanks to Hamilton’s late season injury and — oh yeah — had a hell of a year too. If I have a vote I give it to Hamilton, but again, this is not a year where my favored guy not getting it will be an atrocity or anything.

Who will win: I think Hamilton gets it, but it will be close. There are a lot of other viable options for those who would vote against him because of the playing time, such as Robinson Cano and Evan Longoria, so I think the anti-Hamilton vote — to the extent we can call it that — will be split.  Really, though, I’m more interested to see how the downballot candidates do this year, because it might give us a bit of a read on how much the BBWAA is weighing defense these days.


Who should win: Joey Votto and Albert Pujols had outrageously similar seasons. Really, if you switched their batting lines over at or something, I bet it would be weeks before any non-obsessives noticed something was amiss.  Pujols is a better defender, but I have a hard time getting animated about defensive differences at first base unless they’re just tremendous.  I give it to Votto, for the reasons explained in the “who will win” section below.

Who will win: Votto, for two reasons. First, his team beat the Cardinals for the division crown, and when all things are equal — as they are here — BBWAA voters will reward the player on the better team. Second, writers like a good story, and more importantly, they like a fresh story. Albert Pujols has hardware already, and for as nice a guy as he is, he’s a bit familiar by now while Votto is new blood in these debates.  I normally discount both of those things when it comes to the awards, but I’d be lying if I said that they didn’t tempt me in this case. Sure, if you can make an argument that clearly puts Pujols above Votto on the objective merits I’ll listen, but I just can’t see it right now. With nowhere else to turn, I find myself seduced by the narrative considerations.  Votto is the man.

While it has become great sport to deride the BBWAA, they’ve actually gotten a lot better at awards choices in recent years.  It’s been a long time since we’ve had a Mo Vaughn or Juan Gonzalez-style clunker in one of the biggies.  And this year, apart from the much-debated AL Cy Young Awards, the candidates all seem pretty plausible.  If I had to guess, I’d say that all of the winners will be deserving ones.  Which will be no fun for blogging purposes, but will be more than worth it.

Pujols tops Votto as MLB announces Silver Slugger Awards

pujols with silv slug

Major League Baseball revealed its 2010 Silver Slugger Award recipients this evening during a one-hour special on MLB Network.  It’s the kind of show that would be far better suited for the announcement of Gold Gloves — you know, with highlights of great plays and range breakdowns — but MLBN probably had better programming lined up earlier this week when those awards were given out.  Like a replay of the 1985 ALDS.  Or something.

The National League recipients:

1B Albert Pujols
2B Dan Uggla
3B Ryan Zimmerman
SS Troy Tulowitzki
OF Ryan Braun
OF Matt Holliday
OF Carlos Gonzalez
P Yovani Gallardo

Reds first baseman Joey Votto outproduced Pujols this year in most of baseball’s meaningful offensive stat categories, including OPS, but Silver Sluggers are decided by MLB managers and coaches, and they obviously don’t take the voting process seriously enough to look into such things.

Gallardo, the NL’s winner at pitcher, registered a cool 837 OPS, four home runs and 10 RBI in 63 at-bats this year for the Brewers.

And the American League recipients:

1B Miguel Cabrera
2B Robinson Cano
3B Adrian Beltre
SS Alexei Ramirez
OF Jose Bautista
OF Carl Crawford
OF Josh Hamilton
DH Vladimir Guerrero

Ramirez hit just .282/.313/.431 for the White Sox this season, but there aren’t a ton of highly productive shortstops in the American League these days and his 18 homers and 70 RBI are what carried him to the hardware. It was his first Silver Slugger Award.