Matthew Pouliot

MLB’s home run record could fall

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This year’s 5,000th home run will be hit tonight. We currently stand at 4,990 homers this year with three weeks to go. That’s already the highest total in any year since 2009, and we still have one-eighth of the season to complete. The overall home run record is within reach.

I’ve been tracking this on twitter for a while now. Here are our biggest home run seasons of all-time:

2000: 5,692
1999: 5,528
2001: 5,458
2004: 5,451
2006: 5,386

When I first added it up on July 27, we were on pace for 5,587 homers, which would have been the second highest total of all-time. On Aug. 23, the pace was up to 5,673. Today, we’re at 5,677, leaving us just a tad short of a new record.

Scoring isn’t up as much as homers. Right now, we’re averaging 8.99 runs per game, which is the highest mark since 2009, but still considerably lower than what we saw from the mid-90s to the mid-00s. We’re on pace for 21,846 runs scored, which is up 1,200 runs from last year and 2,000 runs from 2014, but still 3,000 runs lower than the 1999-2000 peak.

One thing that might seem like an oddity is that the home run record could fall without a single 50-homer guy this year. Mark Trumbo is the only player currently at 40, with 41, and he’s probably not hitting nine homers in three weeks. The year the record was set, though, featured no one with more than 50 homers. Sammy Sosa led the majors with 50 on the button in 2000, followed by Barry Bonds at 49 and Jeff Bagwell and Troy Glaus with 47 apiece.