Jake Arrieta gave up as many earned runs Monday against the Cardinals as he had in his previous 13 starts combined, yet the Cubs still won 8-6.
It’s the 15th straight time the Cubs have won a game started by Arrieta, who is set to finish first or second in the Cy Young balloting announced next month. Their last loss in an Arrieta-pitched game was when the Phillies’ Cole Hamels no-hit them on July 25. They won the previous four before that, too, so make it 19 of 20.
The outing could go down as Arrieta’s last of the season, though that would require the Cardinals beating the Cubs in back-to-back games to finish the NLDS. The more likely scenario at this point is that Arrieta starts Game 1 of the NLCS against the Dodgers or Mets.
Arrieta, though, was vulnerable in this one, turning in his shortest start since June. Even in the shutout of Pittsburgh in the wild card game, the Pirates had chances in the middle innings (most notably before Starling Marte‘s well-hit grounder with the bases loaded turned into a double play in the sixth).
Tonight, he walked two in a row at one point, after not walking a single batter in his previous three starts. He gave up his first homer in six starts. The wind was a factor in tonight’s eight-homer barrage, but Jason Heyward‘s two-run shot off Arrieta went against the grain in left-center.
So, if nothing else, the illusion of impenetrability is now gone. Arrieta can be gotten to, if primarily in short bursts. That’s not going to do anything for the Cardinals — at least not unless Arrieta is called on to pitch an inning or two in Game 5 — but it’ll probably come into play later in the postseason.
Through the first four days of LDS play, we’ve seen:
This comes a few weeks after Pirates infielder Jung Ho Kang, who never had to worry about such slides while playing in Korea, suffered a broken leg of his own when the Cubs’ Chris Coghlan took him out.
If you follow me on twitter, well, then I probably owe you an apology. But you know getting rid of the takeout slide is a running theme of mine. Heck, here’s a blog entry on the subject from six years ago. I’m glad MLB addressed collisions at home plate when they did, but eliminating the takeout slide on double plays really should have been more of a priority.
Now, because of Chase Utley, it’s really going to happen.
It was only a matter of time anyway. Teams invest too much in players to want to see them get hurt, and takeout slides aren’t just dangerous for the infielder, but for the player doing the sliding as well. The players themselves can’t take the step to get rid of them; it’s a peer-pressure thing. The umpires won’t do anything about it, even though slides designed to take out fielders are already illegal in the eyes of the rulebook. It’s up to MLB to take the stand. They actually already did in the Arizona Fall League, which is where they like to try their experimental rules before implementing them elsewhere.
So, yeah, this was going to happen with or without Chase Utley. But now it has a realistic chance of happening next year, which is something I wouldn’t have thought possible a few days ago. So, thank you, Chase. It’s just too bad it took a broken leg to build the sentiment.
Scott Kazmir went winless with a 6.52 ERA in six September starts. He allowed 41 hits, eight of them homers, in 29 innings, posting an 18/11 K/BB ratio. When the Astros got five innings of two-run ball from him Friday against the Royals, they should have thanked their good fortune and moved right along to the pen.
And they knew this. They must have. Josh Fields got up in the pen after Kazmir issued a one-out walk in the fifth. The left-hander got out of the frame, making himself eligible for the victory in what was then a 4-2 game, but it was still very surprising to see him come back out for the sixth, particularly with the switch-hitting Ben Zobrist (.926 OPS against lefties) and right-handed Lorenzo Cain due up.
Kazmir retired Zobrist, but he gave up a double to Cain. He was then pulled, even with the left-handed Eric Hosmer coming up. Manager A.J. Hinch had committed my biggest baseball pet peeve: he sent his starter back to the mound with the idea of pulling him after his first mistake.
It worked out terribly. Oliver Perez gave up a pair of soft hits to Hosmer and Kendrys Morales before walking Mike Moustakas. Fields then entered and walked the unwalkable Salvador Perez to tie the game at 4. The Astros gave up another run in the seventh and lost the game 5-4.
Maybe that’s the way it would have worked out anyway. Kazmir did give up just the one baserunner. It might not have even harmed the Astros if Perez had better luck.
Still, the thinking that went into the decision was disturbing. It’s always better to bring that reliever in with no one on base when you can. That’s especially the case with this Astros pen, which lacks a double-play specialist, much less a Wade Davis. But anyone in that pen would have been a better choice than sending Kazmir out to face Zobrist and Cain for a third time. Hinch needs to be more aggressive going forward.
After going 0-for-6 with two strikeouts on Friday, Josh Hamilton is hitless, as well as walkless, in his last 27 postseason at-bats dating back to the 2012 wild card game. And it’s not like he’s making good outs. He’s swinging at everything, and he went his first eight ALDS at-bats without hitting a ball out of the infield.
At this point, it’s worth wondering whether the Rangers should be playing Hamilton at all. He hit two homers in an 11-10 loss to the Angels last Saturday, but those were his only two homers since he came off the DL when rosters expanded last month. He’s 7-for-38 (.184) with one additional extra-base hit, four RBI and a 16/1 K/BB ratio during that span.
The Rangers also realize that Hamilton is not their best defensive left fielder, which is why he’s typically pulled in favor of Will Venable when the team has a lead.
Of course, the Rangers are up 2-0 on the Blue Jays. There’s certainly no sense of urgency for making a switch and putting Hamilton on the bench. If he turns in another 0-for as part of a Game 3 loss, that would begin to change. The Rangers have alternatives. They used Mike Napoli in left field at times late in the regular season, and while that’s a clear defensive downgrade even from Hamilton, they could go that route next time they face a lefty. Venable and Drew Stubbs would offer more defense, probably at the expense of offense. Venable has had solid seasons in the past, but he was hit just .182/.325/.227 in 66 at-bats after arriving from the Padres this summer, and he wasn’t great early on, either. Stubbs hasn’t started a game since Sept. 23 and was just 2-for-21 with the Rangers after being picked up for the final month.
For now Hamilton seems like a given to start Game 3. And if he picks up a couple of hits, any talk of him being benched will go away for a spell. Still, the Rangers need to at least stick him behind Rougned Odor in the bottom half of their lineup. Odor looks like one of the Rangers’ best players right now, yet he never got to hit with a man on base Friday batting behind Hamilton. Hamilton hit with six men on base.
Alcides Escobar finished with a .292 OBP this year. He came in at .246 in 117 at-bats in August and .257 in 109 at-bats between September and October, so he wasn’t exactly flying high entering the postseason. Still, that didn’t stop Ned Yost from putting him into the leadoff spot for Thursday’s Game 1 against the Astros.
Yost finally did reconsider hitting Escobar first in September. It took Alex Gordon‘s return to health, plus the previous addition of Ben Zobrist to the lineup, in order to make that happen. However, it didn’t stick. Escobar hit ninth in each of his starts from Sept. 7-26, batting .236 with a .276 OBP during that span. With five games left to go, he was suddenly returned to the leadoff spot. The Royals went on to win all five games. Yost saw it as a sign, even though Escobar went 5-for-22 with no walks in those games.
Escobar went 0-for-4 in Thursday’s loss to the Astros. He did not swing at the first pitch of the game, which probably explains the defeat.
It’s been difficult to argue with Yost since last year’s World Series run and this year’s incredible run out of the game. The blind spot with Escobar, though, gets rather infuriating. One can defend hitting him leadoff against the Astros’ lefties. His career OBP against southpaws is .319 (.316 this year). Against righties, he’s the most obvious No. 9 hitter alive, with a career .258/.290/.342 line (.252/.284/.314 this year). He’s not a pace-setter. He’s not a spark plug. He’s a liability.