Author: Matthew Pouliot

Elvis Andrus

UPDATE: Rangers, Elvis Andrus reach an agreement on a $120 million extension


UPDATEJon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that the deal is done.

2:42 AM: Despite the presence of Jurickson Profar waiting in the wings, the Rangers have decided to lock up Elvis Andrus to an eight-year, $120 million deal, according to’s Ken Rosenthal and’s Jon Heyman.

Rosenthal reports that the contract would supersede Andrus’ current deal, which will pay him $11.25 million total for 2013-14, essentially making this a six-year, $109 million extension. Heyman, on the other hand, says the eight-year, $120 million extension will kick in after his current deal, locking up Andrus for the next 10 years.

It’s actually a pretty big difference, in that Rosenthal has Andrus making $18.2 million per year for six years, while Heyman’s extension would be for $15 million per year for eight years. I’m going to guess that Heyman has it right; the latter deal would seem to me to be more palatable to the Rangers.

Obviously, the Rangers’ hope here is that the 24-year-old Andrus will continue to improve at the plate, as well he should. The four-year veteran established new highs in average (.286), OBP (.349) and slugging (.378) last year. He was also perfectly solid in 2011, hitting .279/.347/.361. One of the AL’s best defensive shortstops, he’s worth $15 million per year at the moment. Of course, his range figures to decline with age, but his bat should make up for it in his late-20s and he should still last as a shortstop well into his 30s.

As for Profar, this now makes him the Rangers’ second baseman of the future, which puts Ian Kinsler’s role in question. The Rangers could trade Kinsler this summer if they fall out of contention, but it’s more likely that they’ll shift him to first base or an outfield corner and keep him around for 2014 and beyond. He’s in the first year of a five-year, $75 million contract.

Andrus would have been eligible for free agency for the first time after 2014. Because of Profar’s presence, he had been mentioned in trade rumors, most notably in the Justin Upton talks with Arizona. The Rangers, though, never appeared interested in moving him.

Handicapping the AL Rookie of the Year race

Aaron Hicks

Bringing back something I used to do each year for fun, here’s a look at the American League Rookie of the Year possibilities, with odds posted for several of the favorites. I’ll follow suit with the National League tomorrow.

Please note: Rangers outfielder Leonys Martin is ineligible for Rookie of the Year honors. He spent too much time in the majors last season. Otherwise, he’d likely be the second favorite.

Mike Olt (1B-3B Rangers) – 25:1 – Olt was being considered for a bench spot entering spring training, but a poor showing (.194/.324/.419 in 31 AB) got him sent down to play everyday. Since he’s 24, that’s the right move anyway. Olt would be starting at third base for a few teams right now, and he’s also an option at first base and maybe in the outfield corners in case injuries begin piling up in Texas. Alternatively, he could be the team’s best trade bait if it needs help in July. If he has to wait until then, it’ll probably be too late for a ROY bid.

Projection: .241/.327/.408, 12 HR, 40 R, 42 RBI, 3 SB in 316 AB

Dylan Bundy (RHP Orioles) – 20:1 – Bundy would have gotten better odds if not for the presence of Orioles 2012 first-round pick Kevin Gausman, who might have taken his place in line for a May callup. Bundy remains the game’s No. 1 pitching prospect, but Gausman is closing in on a spot on the top five, and Gausman is probably the more polished of the two, having been drafted out of LSU. Bundy, a high school product drafted fourth overall in 2011, went 9-3 with a 2.08 ERA and a 119/29 K/BB ratio in 103 2/3 IP in the minors last year, topping out in Double-A. He’s a phenomenal talent, but since he’ll be limited to around 150 innings this year, he’ll only have so much of a chance to show what he can do.

Projection: 8-5, 3.88 ERA, 1.321 WHIP, 112 Ks in 109 IP

Carter Capps (RHP Mariners) – 20:1 – Seattle closer Tom Wilhelmsen was shaky towards the end of the spring, giving up six runs in his final six innings. Capps, on the other hand, was just about untouchable, allowing one earned run and striking out 13 in nine innings overall. I fully expect him to emerge as the Mariners’ long-term closer, and while that might not happen at any point during this year, he’s a sleeper candidate here. Rookie of the Year voters love their saves.

Projection: 4-3, 7 Sv, 3.16 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 79 Ks in 68 1/3 IP

Chris Archer (RHP Rays) – 15:1 – The Rays are always thinking long-term with their rookies, and that usually means keeping them on the farm for a couple of extra months, even when they look ready. Archer allowed just one hit in seven scoreless innings during the early part of the spring, but the Rays quickly sent him down and proceeded with Roberto Hernandez and Jeff Niemann as their fifth-starter candidates. It’s Hernandez’s job now, but Archer should be the answer come June. If he were up now, he’d be my ROY pick.

Projection: 7-4, 3.82 ERA, 1.334 WHIP, 94 Ks in 96 2/3 IP

Wil Myers (OF Rays) – 12:1 – As soon as the Rays traded James Shields to the Royals for Myers, it was a given that the slugger wouldd spend that he’d spend this first month or two in Triple-A to limit his service time. Myers doesn’t really have much left to prove in Triple-A after hitting 24 homers in 99 games there last year. Overall, he hit .314/.387/.600 with 37 homers in 134 games at two levels. Still, it would be nice to see him cut back on the strikeouts a bit; he fanned 140 times last year. He figures to take over as the Rays’ right fielder in June.

Projection: .240/.312/.429, 15 HR, 47 R, 56 RBI, 2 SB in 366 AB

Brandon Maurer (RHP Mariners) – 12:1 – Supposedly behind Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton in the Mariners chain, Maurer pulled off a stunner in securing a spot in Seattle’s rotation this spring. The 22-year-old showed a strong slider in striking out 25 in 24 innings during the Cactus League season, and he’s always had very good command. He may not have the upside of Walker or Hultzen, but it looks like he’ll be a solid choice to put behind them come 2014 and ’15.

Projection: 9-10, 4.19 ERA, 1.366 WHIP, 126 Ks in 161 IP

Jurickson Profar (2B-SS Rangers) – 9:1 – Now that the Rangers have reportedly chosen to commit to Elvis Andrus for a whopping eight years, Profar’s future appears to be at second base, with Ian Kinsler moving to first base or an outfield corner. It will be interesting to see if the Rangers try to pull that off during the season; asking an All-Star to suddenly switch positions in May or June isn’t something that happens often. Profar, though, will force the Rangers to make a move soon enough. He’s one of their nine best players right now, and the Rangers have too much competition in the AL West to not use their best players.

Projection: .263/.330/.412, 8 HR, 51 R, 42 RBI, 11 SB in 376 AB

Bruce Rondon (RHP Tigers) – 8:1 – Last year was the first year since 2008 that a Rookie of the Year award was not won by a closer (Andrew Bailey in 2009, Neftali Feliz in 2010, Craig Kimbrel in 2011). Rondon was demoted to Triple-A following a very shaky spring, but the Tigers are still hoping he’ll run away with the ninth-inning gig at some point this season. If it happens by May 15, he’d still be a candidate for 30 saves, which would likely lead to at least a top-three finish in the balloting.]

Projection: 2-2, 11 Sv, 3.86 ERA, 1.393 WHIP, 50 Ks in 46 2/3 IP

Jackie Bradley (OF Red Sox) – 6:1 – Arguably the breakout star of the Grapefruit League, Bradley hit .419/.507/.613 in 62 at-bats to make the Red Sox as their left fielder with David Ortiz out. If he hits, he’s going to have to stay when Ortiz returns; it’s not like Jonny Gomes was ever a good plan as a starting left fielder anyway. However, if he doesn’t get off to a fast start, the Red Sox will probably return to the original plan of giving him some Triple-A time. Such a move would push back his free agency an extra year. My guess is that he does wind up back in the minors, at least for a month or so.

Projection: .267/.340/.407, 9 HR, 54 R, 45 RBI, 11 SB in 378 AB

The field – 5:1 – Trevor Bauer (RHP Indians), Kevin Gausman (RHP Orioles), Dan Straily (RHP Athletics), Hiroyuki Nakajima (SS Athletics), Martin Perez (LHP Rangers), Nick Tepesch (RHP Rangers), Jonathan Schoop (2B-SS Orioles), Kyle Gibson (RHP Twins), Danny Hultzen (LHP Mariners), Mike Zunino (C Mariners), Nick Castellanos (OF Tigers), Brandon Guyer (OF Rays), Avisail Garcia (OF Tigers), Austin Romine (C Yankees), Nate Freiman (1B Athletics), Jonathan Singleton (1B Astros), Grant Green (2B-OF Athletics), Taijuan Walker (RHP Mariners), Allen Webster (RHP Red Sox)

Aaron Hicks (OF Twins) – 4:1 – As the lone AL rookie set to get 550 at-bats, Hicks is the safest of the Rookie of the Year picks. The 23-year-old is jumping from Double-A to the majors after hitting .370/.407/.644 with four homers and three steals this spring to beat out Darin Mastroianni and Joe Benson for the Twins’ center field job. Hicks hit a modest .271 in five minor league seasons, but he offers a strong walk rate, emerging power and a strong glove in center field. I don’t see him wowing as a rookie, but I’m also not sure anyone will overtake him.

Projection: .257/.334/.392, 11 HR, 83 R, 48 RBI, 23 SB in 544 AB

Umpires go first three outs of major league season without blowing a call

Andy Fletcher

Of course, our luck ran out in the bottom of the first of Sunday night’s opener between the Rangers and Astros.

With Jose Altuve on first and no outs in the frame, a Matt Harrison pitch to Brett Wallace got away from A.J. Pierzynski, causing Altuve to try for second. The throw arrived on a hop and appeared to beat Altuve but it was to the far side of the bag and by the time the tag was made, Altuve’s foot was on the base. Alas, Andy Fletcher called him out anyway, so new Astros manager Bo Porter took the field for the first argument of the season. The Astros ended up going scoreless in the inning.

MLB pushed back instant replay at least another year last winter, feeling it ready wasn’t to initiate a proper system. Even though there are a dozen cameras covering every baseball game and most calls can be affirmed or corrected in a matter of a few seconds. Still, one can count on MLB making the replay system as unwieldy as possible. It’s going to be awfully exciting next year watching Charlie Manuel deliberate on whether to throw his challenge flag.


Update: Fletcher evened things up about a half hour later, taking a single away from Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus on a liner to center that was trapped by Justin Maxwell. That made for two easily-reversible blown calls in the first hour of the season.

2013 Preview: Boston Red Sox

Mike Napoli, Jonny Gomes

Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2013 season. Up next: The Boston Red Sox.

The Big Question: will the offseason spending spree prove worth it?

Coming off a disastrous season in which they lost 90 games for the first time since 1966, the Red Sox were among the winter’s biggest spenders, signing five of the game’s top 25 or so free agents:

DH David Ortiz – two years, $26 million-$30 million
OF Shane Victorino – three years, $39 million
1B Mike Napoli – three years, $39 million (revised to one year, $5 million + incentives)
SP Ryan Dempster – two years, $26.5 million
SS Stephen Drew – one year, $9.5 million

They didn’t stop there, either:

OF Jonny Gomes – two years, $10 million
RP Koji Uehara – one year, $4.25 million
C David Ross – two years, $6.2 million

That they limited themselves to rather short-term deals was a form of restraint. Not sure whether the Dodgers would be willing to bail them out again, the Red Sox wanted to leave themselves the ability to retool on the fly should their latest plan fail as spectacularly as the previous one did.

That strategy prevented the Red Sox from competing for the best of the best (Zack Greinke, Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton and others). And because the Red Sox wanted to protect their second-round draft pick (and, more importantly, the draft slot money that came with it), they limited themselves to pursuing free agents who failed to receive qualifying offers. Which makes one wonder if they really got the players they wanted or if there were compromises involved.

Because, really, it’s not hard to see how the Red Sox could have gotten more bang for their buck:

  • Victorino is coming off a down season in which he struggled to hit righties. He might be in decline at age 32. Upton, on the other hand, could still have his best days ahead of him.
  • Making his AL debut after being traded by the Cubs, Dempster posted a 5.09 ERA in 12 starts for Texas last year. Anibal Sanchez was better after his trade to the Tigers, and he’s far younger.
  • Napoli ended up receiving a much smaller deal after his physical revealed a hip condition. The Red Sox could have moved on from him and signed Adam LaRoche for three years instead, but he would have cost a pick.

For all of their signings, the Red Sox core remains unchanged since the Adrian Gonzalez megadeal: the team is centered around Dustin Pedroia, Ortiz, Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury and maybe Clay Buchholz. It also has an emerging regular at third in Will Middlebrooks and a very good prospect trio in shortstop Xander Bogaerts, right-hander Matt Barnes and outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr.

What we’ll find out over the next six months was whether the Red Sox were right to add $60 million in non-superstars to that group. If the team contends and keeps fans interested to the point at which soon-to-be-snapped Fenway Park sellout streak proves to be nothing more than a minor dip, GM Ben Cherington will be praised. But this looks to be more of an 80-85 win team as presently constructed, and if that holds up, the Red Sox will kick themselves for thinking more about 2013 than 2014-15.

What else is going on?

  • Lester and Buchholz currently rank 1st and 2nd, respectively, in the Grapefruit League in ERA. It might be worth writing off under normal circumstances, but perhaps the return of ex-pitching coach John Farrell as Boston’s new manager shouldn’t be underestimated here. Farrell was instrumental in the development of both pitchers during his first stint with the Red Sox, and at least half of the reason the Red Sox wanted him back this winter was for his ability to work with the team’s pitchers.
  • Bradley has been the shining star of camp, hitting .444/.523/.667 with two homers, 11 RBI and as many walks (eight) as strikeouts in 54 at-bats. Ortiz’s Achilles’ tendon setback has opened the door for the 22-year-old to make the team as a left fielder, with Gomes moving to DH.
  • Since Bradley is a natural center fielder, Ellsbury’s status as a free agent to be will be a frequent topic of discussion all year. Regardless of whether he returns to his near-MVP form of 2012, Ellsbury might be too expensive to keep next year, particularly since he’d likely be facing a move to left field. He’ll be a candidate to be traded this summer.
  • New closer Joel Hanrahan appears to be finding his footing now after struggling mightily the first half of camp. The Red Sox also have Andrew Bailey throwing well after an injury-ruined campaign, giving them a fallback in case Hanrahan struggles and potential trade bait come June or July.

Prediction: Fourth place, American League East.

Samuel Deduno completes WBC breakthrough with title game victory

Samuel Deduno

Yan Gomes, the only major leaguer Brazil has ever produced, opted out of the World Baseball Classic to help his chances of making the Indians.

He won’t.

Melky Mesa, a veteran minor leaguer in the Yankees system, was all set to be part of the Dominican Republic’s left-field committee. Then Curtis Granderson got hurt. Presented with a slight chance of winning a bench job, he skipped out on the WBC.

And then the Yankees signed Brennan Boesch and Ben Francisco.

It would have been hard to blame Samuel Deduno for opting out of the WBC. Although he was the Twins’ second most successful starter while going 6-5 with a 4.44 ERA last year, he was bumped from the 40-man roster over the winter and went unclaimed on waivers. He opted to re-up with the Twins on a minor league deal, which put him in a battle with Cole De Vries and Liam Hendriks for the fifth spot in the rotation.

But instead of staying in camp and fighting for a spot in the traditional fashion, Deduno decided to represent his country and hope to stay in the race while away. To say it worked out would be a huge understatement. If he hadn’t already, Deduno clinched his rotation spot with five scoreless innings against Puerto Rico in Tuesday’s championship game. Overall, he allowed just one run and posted a 17/5 K/BB ratio in 13 innings over the course of his three starts.

It was a tournament MVP-quality showing for the 29-year-old Deduno, who was originally signed by the Rockies in 2003. He briefly reached the majors with Colorado in 2010, but the team dropped him from the roster the following winter. He went on to appear in two games with the Padres in 2011 before getting his first real opportunity last year. While he was moderately successful for the Twins, the 57/53 K/BB ratio in 79 innings scared everyone off when he was available on waivers over the winter. Fastball movement has long been Denudo’s biggest asset, though it’s contributed to his problems with walks. He also has a nice curve. Some have thought that package would play better in relief, but it didn’t materialize when the Padres tried converting him in 2011.

Deduno seems to have taken a step forward now. Instead of aiming for the corners, he’s just throwing to the catcher’s mitt and let his fastball cut and dive as it will. He still doesn’t have much of a changeup, and he likely will be undone by walks from time to time. However, there have to be several teams kicking themselves for not taking him on for a measly $500,000 over the winter.