Craig Calcaterra

Daniel Murphy Getty

The Mets don’t plan to bring Daniel Murphy back

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I made a joking reference this morning to playoff hero/free agent-to-be Daniel Murphy getting overpaid this offseason. It happens fairly often to decent players who suddenly go crazy in the playoffs and it wouldn’t shock me if it happened to Murphy too. Even if front offices are a lot smarter these days than they used to be.

But Murphy’s heroics aren’t likely to sway too many front offices. Certainly not the ones with a greater analytic bent. The Mets are one of those. And even if Murphy is playing the hero right now — creating MurhphyMania, really — the Mets aren’t going to change their minds on him. From Kristie Ackert of the Daily News:

Two team sources said again Sunday that Murphy, despite his postseason heroics, is not in Mets’ future plans.

“He’s been great, really great,” one source said, “but it changes nothing.” . . . The team feels strongly that Dilson Herrera will eventually develop into their second baseman of the future or that Wilmer Flores could be play there in the meantime.

Murphy is an above-average hitter who can play at least three positions. He’s a nice piece to have on a team on a short term deal for less than $10 million. Much the way the Mets have had him for the past seven seasons. But he’s not the sort of guy you give big free agent money to. And you likely don’t even give him a qualifying offer which would double his salary for next year.  As Joel Sherman of the Post writes, many in the game think he’s going to get a Chase Headley kind of deal. Even if that’s a tad high — seems high to me anyway — the notion of going multiple years and well into eight figures for Murphy seems a bit much, especially for a budget-conscious team like the Mets.

So nothing surprising here. Except for the fact that some Mets executives decided to actually tell a reporter what they’re thinking about such things right now, as Mets fans are going absolutely crazy. Let ’em have some fun with this for a while, maybe?

Playoff Reset: The Jays had best get moving in Toronto

ALCS
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Twenty-two of 25 teams to take a 2-0 lead in the LCS since it went to a best-of-seven format have won the series. The Blue Jays need to start fighting history tonight.

 

The Game: Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Time: 8:07 PM Eastern.
The Place: Rogers Centre, Toronto
The Channel: FoxSports 1
The StartersJohnny Cueto vs. Marcus Stroman
The Upshot: The Jays were down 2-0 in a best of five series against the Rangers and then were forced to go play on the road. They made that work for them and came out on top, so why can’t they come back from 2-0 in a best of seven with three straight games at home?

Being inside the dome will, they hope anyway, wake their bats up as the Royals held them homerless at Kauffman in games one and two. Their mission: to get to Johnny Cueto who, late season struggles aside, gave up only two runs in eight innings against Houston in Game 5 of the Division Series. If he’s truly back on his game it’ll be tough for Toronto. Cueto has faced players in the current Jays lineup 88 times. He’s given up two homers to them: one to Troy Tulowitzki and one to Edwin Encarnacion.

Going for the Jays will be Marcus Stroman, who gave up two runs in six innings in the ALDS-clinching Game 5. Stroman is a groundball pitcher and that’s usually good for the Jays in Rogers Centre. These Royals, however, are the balls-in-play gods. As we saw then they stunned the Astros in Game 4 of the ALDS and came back against David Price in Game 2, they don’t need to hit for power to shock and to awe. They just string together hits and run the bases like crazy. You look up and, bam, you just surrendered four. Stroman needs to sit some guys down with some strikeouts, not put anyone on and hope for the best.

No matter what happens, as today dawns I am frightened by the notion that we’re going to get two 4-0 sweeps in the LCS, this will all be over by Wednesday night and then we’ll be forced to go five days without a baseball game. I have no rooting interests whatsoever in these final four teams, but really, Toronto or Chicago: make it a series, will ya?

Sorry, the “better” team doesn’t always win

Coghlan
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The Blue Jays got really scary at the end of the season and by the time October rolled around many, including the oddsmakers, figured they’d win the AL pennant. They’re down 2-0. The Cubs won seven more games than the Mets and, having dispatched the 100-win Cardinals, were favored by some to dispatch New York too and win it all. They’re down 2-0.

This has led to a bit of “well, the [losing team] is STILL better” talk. From some Cubs fans. From some Cardinals fans. From some Jays fans. It’s not necessarily strident. That tweet from the Jays fan seems more aimed at self-assurance than smack talk. It’s not necessarily widespread. And it’s certainly not exclusive to fans of certain teams. Indeed, every single year there are at least a small handful of fans of teams that have either been vanquished or who are on their way there who claim that, results of a playoff series be damned, their team is the better team. Lord knows that with the Braves’ many, many playoff failures I have heard it often among my fellow Braves fans. And it’s not just fans. Some analysts, citing sample size, randomness and luck, will say it too in service of some argument or another.

No matter who says it, however, it’s always bound to lead to mocking because the only necessary response to the “yeah, but they’re actually better” argument is “scoreboard.” Or “but you lost, dude.” It’s a pretty comprehensive argument and the more one fights against it, the worse one looks. Sports are about winning and losing and when you’re on the losing side you’re never going to look good and you’ll certainly never win by saying “yeah, but actually . . .” And you probably need to stop.

Not because it’s such a wrongheaded notion. Indeed, there is a lot of truth to the idea that 162 games is a better test of a team’s strength than a winner-take-all game, a best-of-five or a best-of-seven. And, this being sports, there are a lot of people who will forget all of that and claim that, by definition, the team that wins the championship is “the best,” because that’s just how sports and sports fans work. Against that backdrop it’s very tempting to “well, actually . . . ” these people and to talk about team depth and sample sizes and luck and randomness and all of that stuff. Either to stick up for your local nine who had a bad week in the playoffs after six months of dominance or to demonstrate your deep understanding of the dynamics of an extremely complicated sport.

But don’t do that. Really, just don’t do that. If you find yourself poised to claim that the team losing the series is better, bite your tongue and save it. Because when you do that, you’re taking all of the fun out of this stuff.

Sometimes the “best” team doesn’t win in the playoffs. A lot of the time, actually. But when you point that out you’re forgetting that baseball is entertainment, and that’s just as bad if not worse than someone forgetting about sample sizes and the true test of the regular season. Major League Baseball knows that, say, a one-game wild card is gimmicky, but it’s also very, very exciting. Most fans, if pressed, know that a short series can be random, but they’re also stoked with drama and unexpected heroes. The playoffs are a lot of fun, dang it, and either a complaint that the “best” team isn’t really being chosen or a dismissive reference to the playoffs as merely being some random sort of tournament that means nothing makes you sound like a petty killjoy.

If you insist on “but [team] is actually better,” talk, IMMEDIATELY follow it up with the co-observation about how, even if that’s so, it doesn’t matter and they’re simply not executing and/or getting whupped at the moment. Or, better yet, wait to do it after the season is over and do it in service of analyzing the team separate and apart from the playoffs altogether. Let the dust settle a bit.

The point being, don’t take people’s fun away. Don’t dismiss the playoffs in a sour grapes fashion. Don’t make yourself look petty. There’s time for dispassionate analysis later and, during that time, you’ll be able to comfort yourself by remembering the good things your team did and made you feel for six months without the harshed buzz of the playoffs hanging over your head. Save it now, enjoy the spectacle of the playoffs even if your team has been eliminated and let thoughts of who was technically “better” help you get through the cold months a bit easier.

Besides, there will be a much better time for you to employ your clever, longer-view of baseball strengths and weaknesses mindset. Like, say, when some team signs Daniel Murphy for way too much money this winter on the back of his amazing October. Indeed, that may be the only way Cubs and Dodgers fans will every get any enjoyment out of Daniel Murphy whatsoever.