Aaron Gleeman

Jeff Luhnow and A.J. Hinch Astros

2015 Preview: Houston Astros

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Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2015 season. Next up: The Houston Astros.

The Big Question: Are the Astros ready to contend?

This is Year 5 of the Astros’ scorched-earth rebuilding plan that has seen them lose 106, 107, 111, and 92 games while overhauling the front office, firing a pair of managers, ditching veterans, and stockpiling young talent. Last year’s 70-92 record was the fourth-worst in baseball and might suggest it’ll be another long season in 2015, but the Astros made big strides in the second half and added plenty of veteran help via trades and signings this offseason.

Clearly general manager Jeff Luhnow believes the Astros are ready to take a big step forward.

Houston went 34-38 over the final 72 games of the season, including 20-20 for the final six weeks. And then they started adding pieces. They traded for slugger Evan Gattis, remodeled the bullpen by signing Pat Neshek and Luke Gregerson, picked up a starting shortstop by bringing Jed Lowrie back into the fold as a free agent, added Colby Rasmus to the outfield and Luis Valbuena to the infield, traded for a backup catcher in Hank Conger, and gave the rotation depth a boost with Dan Straily and Roberto Hernandez.

None of those are championship-making moves, certainly, but most of them were made with the short-term good of the team in mind and together they clearly signal a shift from full-on rebuilding mode to actually building something. Last season’s five best players–Jose Altuve, Dallas Keuchel, George Springer, Chris Carter, Collin McHugh–are all still around and all 28 years old or younger. And stockpiling young talent in the minors has already started to show some dividends, with another wave of high-end prospects on the way soon led by back-to-back No. 1 picks Carlos Correa and Mark Appel.

Houston will be better in 2016 than in 2015 and better still in 2017, but the Astros have a chance to be a .500 team this season if a few things break right for them.

What else is going on?

  • Houston’s bullpen ranked dead last in baseball last season with a 4.80 ERA. Luhnow tried to address that problem in a huge way by making serious runs as big-ticket free agent relievers David Robertson and Andrew Miller. Those attempts fell short, but the Neshek-Gregerson duo is a damn good consolation prize. They combined to throw 140 innings with a 1.99 ERA and 127/24 K/BB ratio last season and both right-handers have a career ERA under 3.00. Toss in Chad Qualls and Josh Fields from the right side and Tony Sipp and Joe Thatcher from the left side and the Astros’ bullpen may actually be a strength.
  • Dallas Keuchel came out of nowhere last season to rank as one of the league’s best left-handers, throwing 200 innings with a 2.93 ERA and winning a Gold Glove award. He was the easy pick to start Opening Day and his ability to avoid turning back into a pumpkin is one of the biggest keys to the Astros’ season. Keuchel is a ground-ball machine and gets a decent number of strikeouts, which is always a winning combo, but prior to 2014 he had a 5.20 ERA in the majors and a 4.74 ERA at Triple-A through age 25.
  • Springer immediately lived up to the hype in his (injury-shortened) debut, but fellow top prospect Jon Singleton struggled mightily by hitting .168 with 134 strikeouts in 95 games during his first taste of the big leagues. Singleton cracked Baseball America’s top-100 prospect list four times and seems all but certain to hit for big-time power eventually, but his lowly .241 batting average at Triple-A combined with tons of strikeouts mean he still has a lot to prove as an all-around hitter.
  • Lots of power and lots of strikeouts is basically the story of the Astros’ entire lineup, even more so than last year when they led the AL in strikeouts and ranked third in homers. And the amazing thing is that Altuve had the most plate appearances on the team with 707–a hundred more than anyone else–and struck out just 53 times. It may not always be pretty and will lead to some extended slumps, but for the most part strikeouts are just a type of out rather than something to be avoided at all costs and Luhnow sacrificing contact in the name of adding elite power at a time when it’s particularly tough to find is an intriguing strategy. They could top 200 homers for the first time since 2001 and just the third time in franchise history.

Prediction: Another step forward to 75-plus wins, another avoidance of last place, and enough progress to convince everyone they’ll contend for the playoffs in 2016.

Erik Bedard out 4-6 weeks with back injury

Erik Bedard
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Veteran left-hander Erik Bedard’s bid to win a spot on the Dodgers’ pitching staff ends with an injury: He’s expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a strained back.

Bedard has played 11 seasons in the majors, but said earlier this spring that he’d be just fine spending some time at Triple-A if needed because he still enjoys pitching at age 36.

He was making his way back from shoulder surgery before this latest injury.

Rockies owner Dick Monfort buys Macaroni Grill restaurant chain for $8 million

Dick Monfort
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Rockies owner Dick Monfort has purchased the Macaroni Grill restaurant chain–which consists of 146 locations–for a total of $8 million.

If that seems really low … well, it is. Nick Grocke of the Denver Post notes that Macaroni Grill sold for $55 million just two years ago and as recently as 2008 it was valued at $164 million. And yet Monfort is getting it for $55,000 per location.

By comparison, the Rockies are paying Drew Stubbs and Daniel Descalso a combined $7.35 million to be their fourth outfielder and utility infielder this season.

Twins catcher Josmil Pinto diagnosed with concussion from Adam Jones’ backswing

Josmil Pinto Twins
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Josmil Pinto, who’s competing to be the Twins’ backup catcher, will be held out of baseball activities for at least 4-5 days after being cracked in the head by Orioles center fielder Adam Jones’ backswing three different times during Saturday’s game.

Pinto left the game after the third swing hit him on top of the head and he felt dizziness and headaches Sunday. General manager Terry Ryan told Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press that Pinto would likely have been placed on the seven-day concussion disabled list if this were the regular season.

Pinto is a good hitter with power and plate discipline at age 25, but his struggles defensively have kept the Twins from turning to him as a full-time catcher. Eric Fryer and Chris Herrmann as the other options to back up Kurt Suzuki.

Orioles prospect Hunter Harvey suffers fractured fibula

hunter harvey orioles
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Orioles right-hander Hunter Harvey, a consensus top-100 prospect and former first-round draft pick, suffered a slightly fractured right fibula when he was hit by a comebacker Saturday.

Britt Ghiroli of MLB.com reports that he’ll be shut down for 4-6 weeks, meaning the 20-year-old’s season debut in the minors will likely be delayed until May.

Harvey was the 23rd overall pick in 2013 and has been dominant through two pro seasons, posting a 2.87 ERA and 139 strikeouts in 113 innings of rookie-ball and Single-A.