Jason Hammel

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2017 Preview: Kansas City Royals

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Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2017 season. Next up: The Kansas City Royals.

 

Last season the Royals set out to defend their World Series title. They finished 81-81. What happened?

Injuries — particularly the one to Mike Moustakas — have been cited as the biggest reason for the disappointment. That’s not untrue, but it is a bit misleading. The Royals actually had fewer total days on the DL across their entire roster than many teams. The contending Royals of 2014 and 2015, however, were teams blessed with exceptional health. Exceptional health which made up for what many saw in the preseason of those years than less-than-contending talent. Maybe those projections were based on reality, but you can beat your projections by being super healthy, catching the ball well and catching breaks. It takes a superior roster — and a lot of depth — to overcome injuries and still contend, and though the Royals are good, they’re were not good enough to overcome the injuries they had.

Setting injuries aside, the biggest problem the Royals had in 2016 was simple underperformance. Which, yes, in some cases, can be attributed to nagging injuries and wear and tear, as was the case with Lorenzo Cain and the no doubt exhausted Salvador Perez. But whatever the cause of the mediocrity, the fact of the matter is that only two regulars had an OPS+ of 100 or greater, which led to the Royals falling to 13th in the American League in runs scored.

That should be improved with Moustakas returning and with the addition of Brandon Moss and Jorge Soler, each of whom had better offensive seasons in 2016 than most of the Royals lineup, not that that’s saying much. What they really need is for Alex Gordon, Cain, Eric Hosmer, and Perez to simply be better. They are better than they showed last year, though, so that’s not exactly a tall order. And most of these guys continue to catch the ball with the best of them, so defense should not be a concern.

You can’t talk about the pitching without first talking about the tragic death of Yordano Ventura this offseason. His loss obviously stands separate and apart from baseball analysis, but it unavoidably affects the Xs and Os as well. Dayton Moore went out and got Jason Hammel to try to fill the gap. Danny Duffy has a new contract extension and will lead the rotation following an excellent 2016. Ian Kennedy and Nate Karns return to the rotation with the now completely-healed-from-Tommy John surgery Jason Vargas rounding things out. It’s a good rotation, not a great one. Between Kennedy’s gopherball habit, Hammel’s poor second half and Vargas’ health concerns, there is  plenty of potential for bad seasons from starters with seemingly only Duffy capable of truly starring. The rest of the guys are who we thought they were. Possibly less.

Wade Davis and Greg Holland are gone but Kelvin Herrera is still there from the dominant pens the Royals featured in 2014-15. Joakim Soria and Matt Strahm set him up. Scott Alexander will serve as a lefty specialist. Travis Wood is a new addition. He’s started in the past and there’s talk about using him as a swingman, but he pitched 77 games in relief last year and was pretty darn good doing so. This is not the shutdown pen the Royals have featured in the past, but it should be good enough to support a contender.

The contending, however, is largely in the hands of the offense and the non-Duffy parts of the rotation. There was a lot that went wrong with all of that last season and a lot of change to all of that this offseason. It makes the Royals one of the hardest teams to predict in the American League. The Royals won in 2015 without having the best rotation in the world, so if the lineup is totally healthy and snaps back into form the Royals could be back in business. But the bullpen won’t save their bacon enough to make them a truly strong pennant contender, I don’t think, even if it should make them better than the .500 team they were last year.

A lot went wrong last year, though, and it’s a lot to ask all of it to go right. If it’s just some — the smart bet — the Royals will be good, but not great. And I think that adds up to them falling just short of the Tigers with both teams miles behind Cleveland.

Prediction: Third Place, American League Central.

 

2017 Preview: Chicago Cubs

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Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2017 season. Next up: The Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs finally ended their 108-year-long championship drought by winning the most thrilling World Series in years last November. Where do the Cubs go from here? There’s only one answer: repeat.

The roster the Cubs will go into the 2017 season with is not that much different from the roster they opened with in 2016. The biggest changes are in center field, as Dexter Fowler has gone to the division rival Cardinals, and Wade Davis now owns the closer’s role.

The Cubs acquired Davis from the Royals back in December in exchange for outfielder Jorge Soler. Davis, effectively, is replacing Aroldis Chapman who was acquired by the Cubs from the Yankees in July last season, then went back to the Yankees in free agency. Few relievers have ever been as dominant as Davis has been these last three campaigns. Since the start of the 2014 season, Davis owns a 1.18 ERA with 47 saves and a 234/59 K/BB ratio in 182 2/3 innings. The right-hander did battle a forearm injury last season, limiting him to 43 1/3 innings, so the Cubs are banking on the 31-year-old staying healthy.

Fowler had what was arguably the best season of his career last year after returning to the Cubs. He hit .276/.393/.447 with 13 home runs, 48 RBI, 84 runs scored, and 13 stolen bases in 125 games. The Cardinals offered him $82.5 million over five years during the offseason, so the veteran outfielder went from Illinois to Missouri. The Cubs have the left-handed-hitting Jon Jay – inked to a one-year, $8 million deal in November — and right-handed Albert Almora, Jr. on the depth chart in center to replace Fowler. The duo will likely operate in a platoon. As the market for center fielders wasn’t exactly bustling, the Cubs did about as well as they could have reasonably done addressing the position.

Other than those two spots, it’s all familiar faces for the Cubs. After winning the 2015 National League Rookie of the Year Award, Kris Bryant followed up with an outstanding 2016 season, resulting in the NL Most Valuable Player Award. He hit .292/.385/.554 with 39 home runs, 102 RBI, and an NL-best 121 runs scored in 699 plate appearances. Along with that, he was one of the best fielding third basemen. Bryant turned 25 years old in January and it’s scary to think what he can accomplish not having yet hit his peak. He should be the favorite to win the 2017 NL MVP Award and if the Cubs continue to pace the league, Bryant will be a big reason why.

Across the diamond, Bryant’s teammate Anthony Rizzo was nearly as impactful to the Cubs last season. The 27-year-old finished fourth in NL MVP balloting, hitting .292/.385/.544 with 32 home runs and 109 RBI in 676 PA. He, too, was slick-fielding at his position which the Cubs’ pitching staff certainly appreciated. Rizzo has been one of the scariest and most consistent bats over the last three years — hitting 32, 31, and 32 home runs – so it wouldn’t be surprising if he had a career year and found himself as the leading Cub in MVP discussions.

Slugger Kyle Schwarber will open up the season in left field, just as he did last year. His season abruptly ended, unfortunately, when he collided with Fowler in the outfield trying to catch a fly ball in Arizona on April 7. He suffered a torn ACL and LCL. Even without Schwarber, the Cubs made it all the way to the World Series, so he was able to return on October 25 to open the Fall Classic against the Indians. He performed admirably, contributing six singles, a double, and three walks in 20 plate appearances for a robust .500 on-base percentage. Now with a full and healthy season ahead of him, the 23-year-old Schwarber is primed for a big season. As manager Joe Maddon is considering Schwarber for the leadoff spot, more plate appearances will mean more opportunities to showcase his power.

Let’s hop into the starting rotation quickly. Four of the five members of baseball’s scariest rotation last year are returning to the Cubs in 2017: Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, and John Lackey. Jason Hammel has been replaced by either Mike Montgomery or Brett Anderson, whoever pitches the best during spring training.

The veteran Lester pitched to a second-place finish in NL Cy Young balloting, going 19-5 with a 2.44 ERA and a 197/52 K/BB ratio in 202 2/3 innings. Sabermetrically, Lester pitched a bit better in 2014 with the Red Sox and Athletics, but by more traditional metrics his 2016 performance was the best of his career. Now 33 years old, Lester hasn’t lost much life on his fastball. Pitchers usually do as they get into their mid-30’s. The Cubs are hoping he can avoid age-related decline for at least one more season.

Arrieta was the league’s best pitcher in 2015 and he appeared to be well on his way to a second consecutive Cy Young Award as he carried a 1.74 ERA after his June 17 start against the Pirates. Clayton Kershaw – Arrieta’s steepest competition – was battling back issues. But Arrieta struggled the rest of the way, putting up a 4.31 ERA in his final 17 starts. His overall stats were fine – 18-8 with a 3.10 ERA and a 190/76 K/BB ratio in 197 1/3 innings — and he finished ninth in Cy Young balloting, but he was no longer the lights-out right-hander we saw in 2015. Fortunately, he figured things out just in time. After the Cubs lost his first two playoff starts against the Giants and Dodgers, they won his final two starts, both in the World Series against the Indians.

Hendricks deserves being mentioned as he led the majors with a 2.13 ERA. He finished third in Cy Young balloting, though, behind Max Scherzer and teammate Lester. Appropriately, Hendricks is very late-career-Greg-Maddux-esque, as he doesn’t feature an overpowering fastball. Rather, he relies on pinpoint command and mixing up his pitches to fool batters. Now that Hendricks is on the map, if he’s able to repeat what he did last year, the 27-year-old might take home some hardware.

The Cubs’ top-three is the best rotation top-three in baseball. Then you look at Lackey as their No. 4 and you realize why they won 103 games in the regular season last year. Lackey, now 38, put up a solid 3.35 ERA in 29 starts. His postseason starts were lackluster – eight runs allowed in 13 innings – but ate up just enough innings not to shortchange the bullpen.

The Cubs are very strong elsewhere, but in the interest of keeping these previews condensed enough to read during a break at the office, we’ll stop here. The Cubs’ catching situation is quite good with the young Willson Contreras backed up by veteran Miguel Montero. Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, and Carl Edwards, Jr. are well-equipped to bridge the gap to Davis in the late innings. Jason Heyward will hope to finally figure things out offensively as he returns to right field. Shortstop Addison Russell appears poised to take the next step towards stardom. You can always set your watch to Ben Zobrist at second base. And last but not least, Maddon reprises his role as baseball’s oddest manager. We can only wait to find out what weird methods he’ll come up with to unite his team this time around.

A team hasn’t repeated as World Series champions since the 1999-2000 Yankees. If any team is going to do it, it will be these Cubs.

Prediction: 99-63, 1st place in NL Central

Report: Royals sign Jason Hammel to a two-year contract

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Royals have agreed to a two-year contract with pitcher Jason Hammel. The deal includes a mutual option for a third year. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports is reporting that Hammel will be guaranteed $16 million.

Hammel, 34, had another solid season with the Cubs, finishing 15-10 with a 3.83 ERA and a 144/53 K/BB ratio over 166 2/3 innings. The Cubs, though, surprisingly declined a $12 million club option for the 2017 season, instead paying him $2 million to buy out the remainder of the contract to allow him to become a free agent.

With Hammel now in the fold, Chris Young is likely the odd man out of the Royals’ starting rotation.