Library of Congress

And now HardballTalk’s 2016 Predictions

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By now I don’t need to tell you how silly it is to predict the outcome of a baseball season in which over 2,400 baseball games are played by over a thousand players, all of whom are subject to injury and/or wild variation from past performance or reasonable expectations. Baseball is freakin’ chaos, my friends. And while that is one of the top things to recommend it, it’s also the thing that makes predicting its outcomes a fool’s errand.

Let no one say that Bill and I aren’t fools. We’re gonna make our picks anyway, because that’s what we do. You can see our top-to-bottom divisional picks in our individual previews, but know that we have the following teams winning divisions and wild cards:

AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Royals
AL West: Astros
AL Wild Cards: Blue Jays, Rangers

NL East: Mets
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wild Cards: Pirates, Giants

We diverge a bit on our playoff/World Series picks:

Bill: Red Sox vs. Astros in the ALCS; Mets vs. Cubs in the NLCS. Cubs vs. Astros in the World Series and . . . CUBS WIN

Craig: Red Sox vs. Royals in the ALCS; Giants vs. Cubs in the NLCS. Giants vs. Red Sox in the World Series and . . . GIANTS WIN

No, I don’t think the Giants are the best team in baseball. I was just burned in 2010, 2012 and 2014 by them and I’ve decided that going with dumb even year juju is a better system than one in which I pretend I know anything. Honestly, if someone put a gun to my head I’d probably pick the Cubs or Red Sox, but everyone’s gonna do that this year and where’s the fun in that?

Obviously, based on that bit of incoherence, Don’t take this exercise terribly seriously. No battle plan survives engagement with the enemy and such. If you save these and throw them back in our faces come October, well, you’re sort of missing the point. Unless we’re right, of course, in which point we’ll make a big show of how right we were because we control the posts that go up on this website and our egos are very, very fragile.

Anyway, there is only one thing you can definitively take away from this: we hate your team. Yes, yours. And yours too. God, how can you root for them?

A scout thinks the Astros strike out too much. The Astros have the lowest strikeout total in baseball.

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Great moments in scouting. MLB.com’s Richard Justice spoke to an unnamed scout about the Astros, currently holding the American League’s best record at 76-47. The scout said that the Astros strike out too much and it will catch up with them. Justice pointed out that the Astros have the lowest strikeout total in baseball. The scout responded, “I don’t believe that.”

Justice, of course, is correct. The average major league team has struck out 1,006 times entering Sunday’s action. The Astros have by far the lowest total at 827, followed by the Indians at 881 and the Pirates at 882.

This scout doesn’t represent all scouts, but this is one of the major problems that advocates of statistics were trying to highlight before Sabermetrics became popular a decade ago. It’s a pattern. Person believes thing. Person either cherry-picks evidence to defend belief or is shown evidence that belief is not factually true and ignores it. Person refuses to change belief, using one of many excuses.

The other problem this highlights is the fallacy of “the eye test,” which is shorthand for treating a scout’s observations as sacrosanct due to his or her experience and knowledge of the game. In this case, the scout ignored easily accessed information, went with his gut, and turned out to be completely wrong. Furthermore, if “the eye test” were legit, the scout would’ve known that, for example, Yulieski Gurriel and Jose Altuve hardly ever strike out (11.1 and 12.4 percent strikeout rates, respectively). In fact, no one on the Astros’ roster (min. 230 PA) has a strikeout rate above 21 percent; the league average is 21.5 percent.

This isn’t to impugn the practice of scouting as a whole. There are a lot of things scouts can tell you about a player that data cannot and that has value. But for easily-researched claims like “the Astros strike out too much,” there’s no reason to trust a scout over the stats.

Mets acquire Jacob Rhame from Dodgers

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The Mets acquired right-handed reliever Jacob Rhame from the Dodgers, the team announced on Sunday. Rhame is the player to be named later in the trade that sent outfielder Curtis Granderson to Los Angeles on Friday night. He’s expected to report to the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate.

Rhame, 24, pitched through his second Triple-A campaign with the Oklahoma City Dodgers in 2017, collecting two saves in 41 appearances and logging a 4.31 ERA, 1.9 BB/9 and 10.3 SO/9 through 48 innings. While his ERA saw a sharp spike from its modest 3.29 mark in 2016 (perhaps thanks in part to a midseason DL stint due to an undisclosed injury), he’s controlling the ball better than he has in several years and has drawn some attention with a fastball that occasionally touches 98 MPH on the radar gun.

The Mets’ bullpen hasn’t been at its finest over the last few weeks, ranking 16th among its major league competitors with a collective 4.50 ERA and 2.4 fWAR, but likely isn’t looking to add an extreme fly ball pitcher to its staff just yet. Until he gets his big league break, Rhame will beef up Triple-A Vegas’ relief corps alongside fellow right-handers Yaisel Sierra, Joe Broussard and Josh Ravin.