For the second straight year, the Yankees are overachieving

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Katie Sharp at the Yankees blog IATM notes that, for the second straight year, the Yankees are poised to do something historic. Not, like, gloriously historic, but historic nonetheless:

If the Yankees maintain their current season pace, they would become the first team in major-league history to post back-to-back winning seasons while being outscored by at least 20 runs in each year.

Last season the Yankees went 85-77 despite a run differential of -21, their worst mark since 1991 (-103). Based on the amount of runs scored and allowed, the team was expected to win just 79 games.

This year they could easily end up with an even lower run differential and still produce a winning record – they currently have been outscored by 27 runs and are five games over .500.

Katie analyzes why this may be and chalks it up to good hitting in close-and-late situations. Whether that’s a skill or not is often debated. I’ve not seen a lot of great evidence that convinces me that it’s a skill, so it may be luck.

But you can’t just say the Yankees have been lucky, either. They’ve had a good back end of their bullpen, and good bullpens help in close games (losing the blowouts + winning the close ones often = outperformance of run differential). Another constant: Joe Girardi. I don’t think anyone has the market cornered on managerial analysis any more than we have it cornered on close-and-late hitting being a skill, but managers doing harm often lead to a run being blown or forgone here or there. Girardi never seems to mess up like that. And maybe he’s doing some good things too in that dark area of managerial unknowns.

Not that any of this will make Yankees fans feel a lot better if their guys don’t make the playoffs for the second straight year. But it’s probably worth noting that it could’ve — and maybe should’ve — been way worse for them than it has been.

Red Sox trade Roenis Elias back to the Mariners

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The Boston Red Sox announced this afternoon that they’ve traded lefty Roenis Elias to the Seattle Mariners for a player to be named later or cash.

Boston had acquired Elias in the same trade that netted them reliever Carson Smith in exchange for Wade Miley and Jonathan Aro back in December of 2015. Since that time Elias has not been a part of the Red Sox’ plans, pitching in just four big league games — eight innings total — in all of 2016 and 2017 and not making an appearance for the big club this season. He was pretty solid for Pawtucket in 2016 but 2017 was largely lost to injuries.

Now he’s headed back to Seattle where, once upon a time, Elias posted a 3.85 ERA in 29 starts as a rookie for the Mariners.