A reader thinks Alex Avila is tipping the Tigers’ pitches

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Things are pretty bleak for the Tigers these days. They’ve lost first place and their Cy Young pitchers just got rocked in back-to-back games. It’s enough to push some Tigers fans over the edge.

Or, maybe it’s enough to make some Tigers fans try to figure out what’s going on themselves. Take HBT reader Bill, who wrote me a few minutes ago with a possible explanation that, while he admits is thin, perhaps imaginary and undoubtedly imbued with some element of trying to cope with tragedy, is at least interesting:

Just something I noticed and started tracking yesterday…

The Tigers recent pitching woes really make me believe that there must be some way they were tipping their pitches. As I watched yesterday’s game against the Royals, I noticed Avila doing something that may or may not be a tell.

He gives the infield position signs, sends the signs to the pitcher and then does one of the following:

  • Smacks his glove once, fiddles/tightens it and it’s usually a fastball.
  • Smacks his glove twice, fiddles/tightens it and it’s usually a an off-speed pitch.

I started tracking around the second inning and got a 85% success rate at guessing the pitches. It’s probably nothing (and i’m reaching for an explanation for our recent performance) but I have to believe the staff or the catcher is tipping their hand somehow. Avila really was obvious when Phil Coke was in there. He stopped after that inning (for the most part). Compared to Salvador Perez, who never alters his routine, it stuck out some.

He notes that Tigers backup catcher Bryan Holaday has a lower catchers’ ERA when he catches, and that Avila’s has gone way up. He admits that the differences aren’t wildly divergent, however, and I imagine we’d all agree that trying to read something into catchers ERA is fraught with difficulty and may be folly.

Still, fun to think about. And something to watch for. Unless you’re a Tigers fan, of course.

2017 Preview: The American League Central

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For the past few weeks we’ve been previewing the 2017 season. Here, in handy one-stop-shopping form, is our package of previews from the American League Central

Do the Indians have a weakness? Do the Tigers and Royals have one more playoff push in them or do they have to start contemplating rebuilds? The White Sox and Twins are rebuilding, but do either of them have a chance to be remotely competitive?

As we sit here in March, the answers are “not really,” “possibly,” and “not a chance.” There are no games that count this March, however, so they’re just guesses. But educated ones! Here are the links to our guesses and our education for all of the clubs of the AL Central:

Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins

2017 Preview: The National League East

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For the past few weeks we’ve been previewing the 2017 season. Here, in handy one-stop-shopping form, is our package of previews from the National League East

The Washington Nationals crave a playoff run that doesn’t end at the division series. The Mets crave a season in which they don’t have a press conference about an injured pitcher. The Marlins are trying to put the nightmare of the end of the 2016 behind them. The Phillies and Braves are hoping to move on from the “lose tons of games” phase of their rebuilds and move on to the “hey, these kids can play!” phase.

There is a ton of star power in the NL East — Harper, Scherzer, Cespedes, Syndergaard, Stanton, Freeman — some great young talent on ever roster and, in Ichiro and Bartolo, the two oldest players in the game. Maybe the division can’t lay claim to the best team in baseball, but there will certainly be some interesting baseball in the division.

Here’s how each team breaks down:

Washington Nationals
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves