Down with the pitchers win, up with the Tango

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So Tom Tango is over at his site doing the Lord’s work. He is doing his best to rid America and the world of the scourge that is pitcher victories (and losses). Now, I’ve written many, many, many, too many words bashing the logic of the pitcher’s victory as a statistic. Pitchers do not win games. Pitchers do not lose games. The pitcher’s win-loss statistic has done more to promote that dumb myth than Tim McCarver, Joe Morgan and all the Cy Young votes combined.

But let’s just concede: A lot of people like the pitcher’s victory as a statistic. It’s simple. It’s explicit. It’s unabashed. And it’s also true that while pitchers do not win or lose games, the starting pitcher generally has more to do with winning and losing than any other individual player. Pitching is the most important part of run prevention. And if a pitcher and defense can keep an opponent from scoring three runs, the team will win 85 or so percent of the time.

Here are those winning percentages since 1900, in case you are interested:

Runs allowed:

0 runs — 1.000
1 run — .889
2 runs — .739
3 runs — .600
4 runs — .464
5 runs — .359
6-plus runs — .170

Two runs or fewer usually means victory.

Pitchers — particularly starting pitchers — have a lot to say about runs allowed. So, while the pitcher’s win-loss record is hopelessly flawed, it is not without value. I think that’s why Tango has moved beyond complaining about the pitcher’s win as a concept and on to a more noble pursuit: Trying to make pitchers’ wins make sense for the 21st Century.

Wait, am I saying it does not make sense? Do I have any proof? Well, you might not know this, but the official rule to determine the winning and losing pitcher — Rule 10.17 in your rulebook — is 711 words. That would be 711 words. Or, to be precise: SEVEN HUNDRED AND ELEVEN BLEEPING WORDS.

If you are scoring at home:

Al Michael’s famous 1980 Olympics hockey call: 6 words.

What Crash Davis believes in: 86 words

Freebird: 172 words.

I Got You (I Feel Good): 220 words

Gettysburg Address: 278 words (depending on version)

Stairway to Heaven: 341 words*

Hamlet’s Soliloquy: 341 words*

**Coincidence? I think not.*

Howard Beale’s “Mad as Hell” speech: 446 words

Entire creation story in bible: 655 words.

Bill of Rights (original form): 678 words

The rule to determine if a pitcher wins or loses: 711 words.

Coffee is for closers monologue: 782 words.

Rapper’s Delight: 2,879 words.

As you can see, nothing in the history of mankind has wasted more words than the pitcher win-loss rule. The rule made sense at one point — and was barely needed at all — because starters mostly pitched nine innings. But these days, starters almost never finish games. There are often three or four relievers pitching.

My simple response to this has been: Just credit the starting pitcher with a win or loss every single time. At least those numbers would make some sense. But I admit this is a pretty clumsy way of doing things.

Enter Tom Tango, who has come up with a simple “Assigned Wins and Losses” formula that I am now calling the Tango Won-Loss System. Is is easy and fun and mathematically sound and doesn’t require 711 words to explain. His formula is a points system.

Every pitcher on the winning team gets 1 point for every out recorded and loses 4 points for every run allowed. The pitcher with the most points gets the win.

On the losing team, each pitcher get 6 points per run allowed and you subtract 1 point for every out recorded. The pitcher with the most points gets the loss.

There will be ties and the tiebreakers are also easy — the pitcher with the most outs gets the win, the pitcher with the fewest outs gets the loss. If there’s still a tie, then the Tango win/loss simply goes to the pitcher who entered the game earliest.

That is a total of 108 words, and I repeated some words unnecessarily. The Tango rule is quite simple.

Baseball Musings has put up a chart to show how assigned wins and losses are going. As you can see, the Tango wins and losses are similar to regular wins and losses most of the time. There can be some pretty severe differences, however.

Let’s take the case of Oakland’s Jesse Chavez. He’s currently 4-1 by the absurd seven-eleven rules of baseball (we call them seven-eleven rules because, as mentioned, it takes 711 words to explain them). Chavez’s Tango record is 7-0.

That’s a pretty significant difference. Which won-loss record makes more sense? Which one speaks to us?

Well, let’s look at Chavez game by game.

April 3: Chavez pitched six innings, gave up two runs (one of them earned) and Oakland won the game 3-2. But the game went to 12 innings, and the win was given to Drew Pomeranz, who pitched one scoreless inning.

Who contributed more to Oakland’s victory – Chavez or Pomeranz?

Baseball says Pomeranz.

Tango says Chavez.

I’m with Tango.

Won-loss: 0-0
Tango Won-loss: 1-0

April 9: Chavez pitched seven innings and gave up 1 run in Oakland’s 7-4 victory over Minnesota. But, again, he did not get the victory. The Twins scored three runs in the eighth and ninth innings to tie the game. The winning pitcher was Dan Otero, who pitched 2 2/3 scoreless innings but also gave up the sacrifice fly that tied the game. Tango gives the victory to Chavez.

Won Loss: 0-0
Tango W-L: 2-0

April 14: Chavez pitched seven innings again, gave up two runs (one earned) in a 3-2 victory over the Angels. And, yep, one more time he did not get the win. The A’s scored late to take the victory and the win went to Jim Johnson, who pitched one scoreless inning.

Tango, again, gave the victory to Chavez. Who deserved it.

Won-Loss: 0-0
Tango W-L: 3-0

April 20: Chavez pitched six innings, gave up one run, and in this case he got both the win and the Tango.

Won Loss: 1-0
Tango W-L: 4-0

April 25: Chavez did not pitch very well – five innings, five runs, four earned. But Oakland won the game 12-5 by scoring seven runs in the ninth inning against Houston. The win was randomly given to Luke Gregerson, who pitched one scoreless inning. In this case, the Tango W-L does not give the victory to Chavez either. In fact, the Tango struggles to find a winner here. This is one of those games, I think, where NO pitcher deserves a victory.

Chavez: 15 outs recorded, 5 runs scored, minus-5 points.
Dan Otero: 3 outs recorded, 3 points.
Sean Doolittle: 3 outs recorded, 3 points
Luke Gregerson: 3 outs recorded, 3 points.
Fernando Abed: 3 outs recorded, 3 points.

The Tango, if I understand it right, gives the victory to Otero since he was in the game earliest. That’s not a particularly fulfilling decision, but it’s better than giving the victory Gregerson, who just happened to be in the game at the right time. I personally would just want to give the victory to the starter, but there’s no ideal answer here.

April 30: Chavez pitched seven shutout innings in a 12-1 victory and got both the victory and the Tango.

Won-loss: 2-0
Tango W-L: 5-0

May 6: Chavez pitched 5 2/3 innings and gave up four earned runs in an 8-3 loss to Seattle. He took the loss by seven-eleven rules, but does not take the Tango W-L. Why not? Because someone else pitched worse.

Chavez: 17 outs recorded, 4 runs allowed, minus-7 points (remember it’s six points per run when figuring losses)
Jim Johnson: 2 outs recorded, 4 runs allowed, minus-22 points.

Johnson pitched WAY worse than Chavez and escaped the loss only because his team happened to be down 4-3 when he entered the game. But if you think about it: That makes NO SENSE. His team had a chance to win the game before he came in. His team had almost no chance after he pitched. Tango says he deserves the loss more than Chavez, and I concur.

Won loss: 2-1
Tango W-L: 5-0

May 12: Chavez went eight innings and gave up two runs and got both victories.

Won loss: 3-1
Tango W-L: 6-0

May 18: Chavez went five innings, allowed two runs, and got both victories.

Won-loss: 4-1
Tango W-L: 7-0

So, there you can see the difference. It seems very clear to me that the Tango W-L better represents the contribution that Jesse Chavez has made this year than the regular old won-loss stat.

This is a lot to take in, of course. People are so reluctant to change in baseball. More than that, people are reluctant to consider change. I read my good friend Bob Ryan’s piece on baseball statistics; it was, in a way, a homage to the flawed statistics of the past. We grew up with them. Feel comfortable with them. I have a friend who takes a route to work that is five-to-10 minutes longer than the best way. But he doesn’t KNOW the short way, doesn’t really want to know the best way, it uses new roads that weren’t around when he was growing up. He’s used to the long way. It’s comfortable for him.

So, OK, use the pitcher win. But, it seems obvious to me: The current win statistic simply does not work for the 21st Century. They could add another 711 words, and it still wouldn’t work. This new way is SO easy and it’s so much smarter. Let’s switch. It only takes two to tango.

And That Happened: Sunday’s Scores and Highlights

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Hope you had a nice weekend. Mine consisted of a lot of sniffling, sneezing, coughing, aching stuffy head, fever and, thus, NyQuil and bed rest which (a) meant I went to bed too early Saturday night to see Sean Manaea‘s no-hitter but which allowed me to (b) lay in bed most of yesterday afternoon and see a bunch of games. Not exactly a wash, but if you have to be sick thank God for day baseball. And thank God for NyQuill.

Here are the scores. Here are the highlights:

Phillies 3, Pirates 2: It was 2-2 from the fifth until the bottom of the 11th, and that’s when Aaron Knapp tripled and Aaron Altherr singled him in for the walkoff win. The Phillies completed a four-game sweep of the Pirates. It was their first four-game sweep of Pittsburgh in 24 years. There was a time when “in 24 years” seemed like a long time ago — like, that should be in the 1980s or something — but it was 1994 and I had just finished my junior year of college. You lose decades after a certain age. Oh well, the Phillies have won 13 of 16 since we all decided Gabe Kapler didn’t know what he was doing. Guess he figured it out.

Rays 8, Twins 6: The Rays had a 6-3 lead, blew it, and it was tied 6-6 in the bottom of the ninth when Carlos Gomez came up to bat and hit a two-run walkoff homer. Gomez said that he told his son that he’d hit a homer for him in this game. He was 0-for-his-first 4, though, with three strikeouts before the blast. Phew. For the Twins, Brian Dozier extended his hitting streak to 23 games, dating back to September 22 of last year. It’s weird that we count hitting streaks that way. Of course it’d be weird if we didn’t count them that way too, as everyone would still be talking about last year’s games, so I dunno. The world isn’t always perfect and there aren’t always satisfying answers. You may lose decades when you get older but you gain the ability to deal with ambiguity and even embrace a lack of cosmic resolution in things. That sort of zen is one of the best parts of getting older, even if people tend to fight it rather than accept it.

Athletics 4, Red Sox 1: A day after getting no-hit by Sean Manaea, Daniel Mengden and his twirly mustache held the Red Sox to one run on six hits in six and a third and the bullpen took it the rest of the way. I’d say who woulda thunk that the A’s of all teams would cool off the red hot Red Sox bats, but it’s not like any team is going to continue to score 7-10 runs a game ad inifinitum. Khris Davis knocked in all four of the A’s runs, the first one on a ground ball single in the first and the last three with a three-run homer in the eighth, both coming off of David Price. As for Mengden, I like him a lot, but not because of his mustache. I like the way he works from the full windup. This is from a game last year, but check this out:

I was watching him yesterday and he seems to have cut down a bit on that rocking motion, but he still goes both-arms-over-the-head like that. I love it because, even though I know not every pitcher did that back in the 1970s and 80s when I was beginning to watch baseball, it sort of felt like everyone did. It was how kids would pitch when emulating pitchers back then and it didn’t seem weird. I don’t know when that went out of style in favor of the bring-the-arms-in-towards-the-chest thing. I know Paul Byrd pitched like that his whole career and it didn’t feel weird when he did it. I don’t know, maybe I’m just remembering three random dudes who did that and I’m totally misrepresenting baseball history here. You misremember a lot of stuff when you get older too. Anyway: I’m on team Mengden.

Royals 8, Tigers 5: The Tigers took a 2-0 lead but Whit Merrifield hit a solo shot and Abraham Almonte hit a grand slam in the sixth inning to make it 5-2. Then the Tigers tied it up but Mike Moustakas hit a three-run shot in the seventh inning to make it 8-5. “And STAY down,” he said. Or thought. Maybe.

Yankees 5, Blue Jays 1: Top prosepct Gleyber Torres made his big league debut and went 0-for-4. He’ll have better days. Maybe days like Miguel Andujar, who went 4-for-4, had. Austin Romine doubled in a couple and Didi Gregorius smacked a dinger. Luis Severino didn’t need that much support, as allowed only one run on three hits over seven.

Indians 7, Orioles 3: Jose Ramirez hit two homers — a solo shot in the fourth inning and a two-run drive in the ninth — to help Corey Kluber get his third win of the season. Manny Machado homered twice in a losing cause. The O’s have lost nine of ten.

Astros 7, White Sox 1: Lance McCullers scattered a bunch of hits while allowing one run over six, while Marwin Gonzalez and Evan Gattis each drove in a couple. Houston sweeps the White Sox, outscoring Chicago 27-2 in the three-game series. The Sox have lost seven in a row, giving up 53 runs on those games.

Brewers 4, Marlins 2: Junior Guerra allowed one run — unearned — in five innings and the bullpen allowed one more run — also unearned — in the final four frames. Both of the unearned runs were attributable to the catcher, as the guy who scored in the first inning reached on a catcher’s interference and the runner who scored in the eighth got into scoring position on a passed ball. Of course, it still took hits in both cases for the runs to come in, so it’s not like the pitcher wasn’t at least partly responsible. I am fairly fascinated with blame apportionment when it comes to unearned runs. It makes me wonder which pitcher benefitted most from runs which, while technically unearned because of an error, were really on him anyway because he gave up a bunch of hits later, failing to limit the damage. Or which were unearned because of his own error. Like, I know Bob Gibson’s ERA in 1968 would not have risen to 3.68 if you analyzed things that way, but I’m sure someone, somewhere, got just under 3.00 to 2.98 or something due to the unearned run rules, thereby changing the way he was viewed in a given year as a result. Someone give me a $250,000 advance on a book to study this, please.

Cardinals 9, Reds 2: Close until the seventh when the Cards put up three thanks to a Paul DeJong three-run homer and then added three more in the eighth. Miles Mikolas allowed two runs — one earned — over seven. I’m too lazy to analyze the unearned run situation in this game, though, and no one has given me the advance I mentioned above just yet. Not doing it for free, folks.  Anyway, the Reds got swept and now they go home to play the Braves today. Maybe. I have tickets to that game so, of course, the forecast calls for a lot of rain. Maybe the Reds need a rainout, but I sort of hope Mother Nature doesn’t let them have one. It’s like 100 miles in the car each way for me and I don’t wanna waste the trip.

Diamondbacks 4, Padres 2: The Snakes scored all four of their runs in the fourth, two on a Nick Ahmed homer, one on Patrick Corbin single and one on a delayed steal thingie in which Padres pitcher Joey Lucchesi threw the ball away. In addition to knocking in that run, Corbin dominated the Padres, winning his fourth game of the year with 11-strikeouts over six two-hit, two-run innings.

Rangers 7, Mariners 4: Nomar Mazara and Joey Gallo each hit dongs in the fourth inning as the Rangers avoid a sweep at the hands of the M’s. Rangers starter Martin Perez allowed two over six innings, lowering his ERA from 13.14 to 9.82. Yay, progress!

Cubs 9, Rockies 7: Chicago built up a 6-0 lead after three innings, let the Rockies back in it and then added three more later and held on. In other words, just another afternoon at Coors Field. Javier Baez homered and later doubled in two. He also got cute and blocked D.J. LeMahieu when the latter was trying, it seemed, to steal signs. LeMahieu didn’t like that, but well, tough:

Kris Bryant left this one in the first inning after getting beaned — the ball hit the bill of his helmet and spun the dang thing around without it even falling off his head — but he passed his initial concussion tests, so here’s hoping it’s not serious.

Giants 4, Angels 2: There was some history here as Brandon Belt and Jaime Barria faced off in a 21-pitch at bat, which was the longest since they began keeping track of such things 30 years ago. Barria ended up winning that battle when Belt lined up to right field for the game’s first out. Here you go if you like foul balls and/or building tension:

The Giants won the war, however, as Barria couldn’t make it out of the third inning, having tossed 77 pitches. As soon as he left Evan Longoria hit a two-run homer and Belt would add a solo shot later. Johnny Cueto, meanwhile, was more economical and shut the Angels down for six innings.

Dodgers 4, Nationals 3: Washington took a 3-0 lead over Alex Wood and the Dodgers by the top of the sixth but L.A. came back when Yasmani Grandal and Cody Bellinger hit RBI doubles of the two-run and one-run variety, respectively. Corey Seager put the Dodgers up for good with a sac fly in the seventh and the bullpen held on. The Dodgers won their sixth in seven games and climbed back to .500 after a slow start to the season.

Mets vs. Braves — POSTPONED:

Tried to get your attention all night long
Asked you once, I asked you twice, asked you four times
If you’d like to dance to that song
Front crawled the crowd down the stairs
And I followed you out in the rain, nowhere to be found
Never mind, you’ll probably never look that pretty again

You’re not nineteen forever, pull yourself together
I know it seems strange but things, they change
Older woman and an ever so slightly younger man
God bless the band, they’re doing all they can

You’re not nineteen forever
You’re not nineteen forever
You’re not nineteen forever
It’s not big, it’s definitely not clever