Toronto Blue Jays' Cabrera heads to the batters box during the first inning of their MLB baseball game against the San Francisco Giants in San Francisco, California

Players busted for PEDs don’t show any notable uptick in performance

85 Comments

A week after ESPN’s Buster Olney decided that Melky Cabrera’s excellent-so-far 2014 season justifies people assuming he’s back on PEDs, ESPN’s Dan Szymborski dives into the numbers and shows that such a decision is not based on any evidence at all:

Despite the rhetoric surrounding PEDs, players caught for steroid/testosterone use do not show a pattern of overperforming their projections in the years leading up to the drug suspension or a pattern of underperforming their projections in the years after a drug suspension.

All of this is based on Szymborski’s ZiPS projection system, which shows that Cabrera is doing about what you’d expect him to do this year. And that, as a group, guys busted for PEDs don’t really deviate too much from their expected performance one way or another before, during or after they are caught for PEDs.

Obviously there are a lot of caveats in play here. Small sample sizes, imperfect data about when guys start and stop taking PEDs and, of course, the flaws any projection system, even one as generally reliable as ZiPS, brings to the table.

But if you’re making a case for something — and Olney and others who are questioning the legitimacy of Melky’s performance this season are clearly making a case for something — it’s incumbent upon you to present some evidence. Szymborski’s analysis doesn’t necessarily prove anything about the efficacy or lack thereof of PEDs. But it has far more evidence on its side than anything people are hurling at Cabrera lately.

All Marlins players will wear number 16 in honor of Jose Fernandez tonight

MIAMI, FL - JULY 09:  Jose Fernandez #16 of the Miami Marlins pitches during the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Marlins Park on July 9, 2015 in Miami, Florida.  (Photo by Rob Foldy/Getty Images)
3 Comments

The Marlins game was understandably cancelled yesterday. The baseball schedule has always gone on in such situations, however, and the Marlins will host the Mets tonight in Miami.

As they do so, they will all be wearing number 16, Jose Fernandez’s number, in honor of their fallen teammate.

A nice gesture on what will certainly be an emotional night.

Derek Falvey named Twins new president of baseball operations.

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - JUNE 9: General view of interleague play between the Minnesota Twins and the Chicago Cubs at Target Field on June 9, 2012 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Minnesota Twins defeated the Chicago Cubs 11-3. (Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)
Getty Images
1 Comment

ESPN’s Keith Law reports the Twins have hired Derek Falvey as their new president of baseball operations.

Falvey has been the Indians assistant general manager for the past year after spending a decade with the organization. He’s only 33 and he’s analytically-inclined. Which, given that the Twins front office has been particularly young or analytically-inclined, should be a pretty major change of pace. It’s also worth noting that going from one year of experience as an assistant general manager all the way to president of baseball operations — who will presumably oversee a general manager of his own — is a big, big jump. Either the Twins have a LOAD of confidence in Falvey or else they were having serious issues finding more experienced candidates. Of course both of those things could be true.

The Twins’ longtime general manager, Terry Ryan, was fired in July. The club lost its 100th game yesterday, marking only the second time since the franchise moved to Minnesota that it has lost that many games.