Toronto Blue Jays' Cabrera heads to the batters box during the first inning of their MLB baseball game against the San Francisco Giants in San Francisco, California

Players busted for PEDs don’t show any notable uptick in performance

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A week after ESPN’s Buster Olney decided that Melky Cabrera’s excellent-so-far 2014 season justifies people assuming he’s back on PEDs, ESPN’s Dan Szymborski dives into the numbers and shows that such a decision is not based on any evidence at all:

Despite the rhetoric surrounding PEDs, players caught for steroid/testosterone use do not show a pattern of overperforming their projections in the years leading up to the drug suspension or a pattern of underperforming their projections in the years after a drug suspension.

All of this is based on Szymborski’s ZiPS projection system, which shows that Cabrera is doing about what you’d expect him to do this year. And that, as a group, guys busted for PEDs don’t really deviate too much from their expected performance one way or another before, during or after they are caught for PEDs.

Obviously there are a lot of caveats in play here. Small sample sizes, imperfect data about when guys start and stop taking PEDs and, of course, the flaws any projection system, even one as generally reliable as ZiPS, brings to the table.

But if you’re making a case for something — and Olney and others who are questioning the legitimacy of Melky’s performance this season are clearly making a case for something — it’s incumbent upon you to present some evidence. Szymborski’s analysis doesn’t necessarily prove anything about the efficacy or lack thereof of PEDs. But it has far more evidence on its side than anything people are hurling at Cabrera lately.

Report: Padres working on trading Andrew Cashner

ST. LOUIS, MO - JULY 21: Starter Derek Norris #3 of the San Diego Padres pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals in the first inning at Busch Stadium on July 21, 2016 in St. Louis, Missouri.  (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images
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Jon Morosi of FOX Sports and MLB Network reports that the Padres are working to trade starter Andrew Cashner. He notes that a deal may be consummated before he takes the hill for Tuesday’s start in Toronto against the Blue Jays. The Marlins, Orioles, and Rangers have had reported interest in Cashner.

Cashner is 4-7 with a 4.79 ERA and a 61/27 K/BB ratio in 73 1/3 innings. He missed over three weeks between June 11 and July 2 due to a strained neck.

The right-hander is earning $9.625 million this season and will be eligible for free agency after the season.

Nationals activate Ryan Zimmerman from the disabled list

LOS ANGELES, CA - JUNE 22:  Ryan Zimmerman #11 of the Washington Nationals reacts to his run to tie the score 1-1 with the Los Angeles Dodgers during the second inning at Dodger Stadium on June 22, 2016 in Los Angeles, California.  (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Harry How/Getty Images
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The Nationals announced on Tuesday that the club activated first baseman Ryan Zimmerman from the 15-day disabled list. Zimmerman had been out since July 7 with a strained rib cage on the left side.

Zimmerman has been inserted in the sixth spot in Tuesday’s lineup against the Indians. The veteran went on the DL with a lackluster .221/.284/.402 triple-slash line with 12 home runs and 38 RBI in 313 plate appearances.

Clint Robinson and Daniel Murphy split time at first base in Zimmerman’s absence, which allowed Trea Turner to get regular playing time at second base. Turner will play center field on Tuesday night.

The Nationals also activated pitcher Sammy Solis from the disabled list. Solis had been out since July 7 with inflammation in his right knee.