Peter Dizikes of the MIT News Office highlights one of the finalists in the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, currently being held in Boston. The paper, “A Data-driven Method for In-game Decision Making in MLB”, was developed by John Guttag and Ganeshapillai Gartheeban.
Guttag and Gartheeban’s developed a model that suggested when managers should take their starting pitchers out of the game by using data from the first 80 percent of the 2006-10 seasons to develop a model. Then they tested their model against the results in the final 20 percent of the season.
Dizikes summarizes some of the important findings:
The study finds that from the fifth inning on, in close games, pitchers who were left in games when the model recommended replacing them allowed runs 60 percent of the time, compared to 43 percent of the time overall.
Over 21,538 innings, the Guttag-Gartheeban model disagreed with the manager’s decision regarding his starting pitcher 48 percent of the time. About 43 percent of the time, the manager left the starting pitcher in when the model indicated he should be replaced. In just 5 percent of the cases did managers pull starting pitchers when the model suggested they should stay in the game
Guttag and Gartheeban do note that their methodology doesn’t consider every factor and recognize that the manager is considering a lot more than just the current game situation. Hypothetically, leaving Justin Verlander in with a 110 pitch count in a 2-1 game in the bottom of the eighth in late September when the Tigers are only in the lead by a game could be justifiable when most objective models would suggest taking him out.
That being said, many managers can improve simply by not having their pitchers throw unnecessary innings, like the seventh inning after their team has taken a 10-1 lead.
The Giants have acquired All-Star infielder Eduardo Nunez from the Twins in exchange for minor league pitcher Adalberto Mejia, the club announced on Thursday night.
Nunez, 29, went 0-for-4 in Thursday night’s game against the Orioles. He’s hitting .296/.325/.439 with 12 home runs, 47 RBI, 49 runs scored, and a league-best 26 stolen bases in 391 plate appearances this season. Nunez has played mostly at shortstop this season, but has also logged significant time at third base and a handful of games at second base, so he’ll give the Giants some versatility.
Nunez will likely play a lot of third base for the Giants as Matt Duffy is still sidelined with a strained left Achilles. He’s earning $1.475 million this season and will enter his third and final year of arbitration eligibility heading into 2017.
Mejia, 23, was considered the Giants’ seventh-best prospect by MLB Pipeline. He earned a promotion to Triple-A Sacramento last month after posting a 1.94 ERA with Double-A Richmond. In seven starts with Sacramento, he has a 4.20 ERA with a 43/11 K/BB ratio in 40 2/3 innings.
With a roster spot open, the Twins called up infield prospect Jorge Polanco from Triple-A Rochester, per MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger.
Bob Nightengale of USA TODAY reports that the Mariners have received “strong” trade interest for starter Taijuan Walker. The right-hander is currently on the mend from tendinitis in his right foot. He’ll throw a bullpen on Friday at Wrigley Field with scouts in attendance.
Walker, 23, has a 3.66 ERA with an 80/18 K/BB ratio in 86 innings this season. It’s his first bit of sustained success at the major league level. What’s arguably just as intriguing is the fact that Walker will be under team control through 2020.
The Mariners have been hovering around .500 for the last month and entered Thursday six games behind the first-place Rangers in the AL West and 4.5 games out of the second AL Wild Card slot, behind three other teams as well as the two Wild Card leaders. It’s enough uncertainty which could push the Mariners to sell.