Latest research shows managers inefficient when taking pitchers out of the game

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Peter Dizikes of the MIT News Office highlights one of the finalists in the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, currently being held in Boston. The paper, “A Data-driven Method for In-game Decision Making in MLB”, was developed by John Guttag and Ganeshapillai Gartheeban.

Guttag and Gartheeban’s developed a model that suggested when managers should take their starting pitchers out of the game by using data from the first 80 percent of the 2006-10 seasons to develop a model. Then they tested their model against the results in the final 20 percent of the season.

Dizikes summarizes some of the important findings:

The study finds that from the fifth inning on, in close games, pitchers who were left in games when the model recommended replacing them allowed runs 60 percent of the time, compared to 43 percent of the time overall.

[…]

Over 21,538 innings, the Guttag-Gartheeban model disagreed with the manager’s decision regarding his starting pitcher 48 percent of the time. About 43 percent of the time, the manager left the starting pitcher in when the model indicated he should be replaced. In just 5 percent of the cases did managers pull starting pitchers when the model suggested they should stay in the game

Guttag and Gartheeban do note that their methodology doesn’t consider every factor and recognize that the manager is considering a lot more than just the current game situation. Hypothetically, leaving Justin Verlander in with a 110 pitch count in a 2-1 game in the bottom of the eighth in late September when the Tigers are only in the lead by a game could be justifiable when most objective models would suggest taking him out.

That being said, many managers can improve simply by not having their pitchers throw unnecessary innings, like the seventh inning after their team has taken a 10-1 lead.

Andrew Miller left Monday’s game due to reaggravation of patella tendinitis

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Indians reliever Andrew Miller lasted only six pitches in Monday night’s appearance against the Red Sox. He walked Mookie Betts on six pitches before being relieved by Dan Otero. Per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian, Miller reaggravated the patella tendinitis in his right knee.

Miller, 32, missed a couple of weeks earlier this month with patella tendinitis. He was activated last Friday and got two outs in a scoreless appearance against the Royals that night.

Bastian pointed out that Miller’s velocity has been lower than usual. He averaged 92.1 MPH on his fastball on Friday and 90.1 MPH on Monday, well below his normal average around 94 MPH.

The Indians should have more on Miller’s status after Monday’s game or on Tuesday. The lefty is carrying a 1.65 ERA with a 79/16 K/BB ratio in 54 2/3 innings on the season.

Joey Gallo and Matt Bush both experiencing concussion symptoms after colliding on Sunday

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Rangers third baseman Joey Gallo and reliever Matt Bush collided attempting to catch an infield pop-up during Sunday afternoon’s game against the White Sox. Bush was placed on the 10-day disabled list on Monday with an MCL sprain in his right knee. Both he and Gallo are experiencing concussion symptoms, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports, and Gallo also suffered a nasal fracture. Gallo has not yet been put on the disabled list.

Losing both players is a big loss for the Rangers, who entered Monday’s action just 2.5 games out of the second Wild Card slot.

Gallo, 23, has had a breakout season, batting .205/.329/.561 with 35 home runs, 65 RBI, and 68 runs scored in 410 plate appearances.

Bush, 31, has been solid out of the bullpen, putting up a 3.04 ERA with a 53/18 K/BB ratio in 47 1/3 innings.