Reds' manager Dusty Baker watches from the dugout as his team plays the Giants in Game 5 of their MLB NLDS playoff baseball series in Cincinnati

Latest research shows managers inefficient when taking pitchers out of the game


Peter Dizikes of the MIT News Office highlights one of the finalists in the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, currently being held in Boston. The paper, “A Data-driven Method for In-game Decision Making in MLB”, was developed by John Guttag and Ganeshapillai Gartheeban.

Guttag and Gartheeban’s developed a model that suggested when managers should take their starting pitchers out of the game by using data from the first 80 percent of the 2006-10 seasons to develop a model. Then they tested their model against the results in the final 20 percent of the season.

Dizikes summarizes some of the important findings:

The study finds that from the fifth inning on, in close games, pitchers who were left in games when the model recommended replacing them allowed runs 60 percent of the time, compared to 43 percent of the time overall.


Over 21,538 innings, the Guttag-Gartheeban model disagreed with the manager’s decision regarding his starting pitcher 48 percent of the time. About 43 percent of the time, the manager left the starting pitcher in when the model indicated he should be replaced. In just 5 percent of the cases did managers pull starting pitchers when the model suggested they should stay in the game

Guttag and Gartheeban do note that their methodology doesn’t consider every factor and recognize that the manager is considering a lot more than just the current game situation. Hypothetically, leaving Justin Verlander in with a 110 pitch count in a 2-1 game in the bottom of the eighth in late September when the Tigers are only in the lead by a game could be justifiable when most objective models would suggest taking him out.

That being said, many managers can improve simply by not having their pitchers throw unnecessary innings, like the seventh inning after their team has taken a 10-1 lead.

Yoenis Cespedes says he’s 100%

Yoenis Cespedes
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Yoenis Cespedes, who took a pitch off his hand last week, scaring the bejesus out of Mets fans, said today that he’s “100 percent ready” for the NLDS against the Dodgers.

He sat out Thursday and then went 2-for-7 with a double and a walk in the Mets’ remaining games. While he only had bruises on those fingers, pain and discomfort have, in the past affected guys who have been hit on the hands, messing with grip and power. Cesepdes saying that’s not an issue is a good thing.


Ichiro Suzuki is re-signing with the Marlins for 2016

Ichiro Suzuki

Fresh off his season-ending pitching debut, Ichiro Suzuki has decided to re-sign with the Marlins for 2016.

Joe Frisaro of reports that an official announcement will be made later today,

Suzuki was one of the worst players in baseball this season, hitting .229 with one homer and a .561 OPS in 153 games as a semi-regular for the Marlins at age 41. He hasn’t topped a .700 OPS since 2010, hitting a combined .268 with a .304 on-base percentage and .342 slugging percentage in 769 games during the past five seasons.

He’s also just 65 hits short of reaching 3,000 for his MLB career and presumably the Marlins like being involved in that upcoming milestone and having the well-liked future Hall of Famer in the clubhouse to keep him around in what will no doubt be a lesser role.