Ranking the rotations: 2014 edition

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I’ll be dipping into my Rotoworld player projections from time to time for HBT posts. Here’s the first of this year: my ranking of each five-man rotation as we head into 2014.

Before actually posting my 1-30, I’ll start with my raw ERA rankings by league. A couple of qualifications: I’m only using the top five for each team, so depth beyond that is being ignored. Of course, the teams with quality depth outside the top five are going to do pretty well here anyway. On the other hand, this method does help teams that still have rotation spots to be decided. For example, I have the Yankees fifth starter as David Phelps, but he’s projected for just 106 innings at the moment. If he were projected at 180 instead, the rotation’s collective ERA would be higher. The Mariners are also overrated here, since Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma are responsible for 48 percent of the 857 innings in the sample below.

AL
Tigers: 3.38 in 991 IP
Rays: 3.40 in 919 IP
Mariners: 3.59 in 856 2/3 IP
Athletics: 3.65 in 912 IP
Yankees: 3.73 in 895 IP
Indians: 3.75 in 862 1/3 IP
Angels: 3.78 in 871 1/3 IP
Red Sox: 3.80 in 951 IP
Rangers: 3.83 in 812 2/3 IP
White Sox: 3.85 in 897 2/3 IP
Royals: 3.94 in 940 IP
Blue Jays: 4.06 in 847 IP
Orioles: 4.10 in 845 1/3 IP
Twins: 4.16 in 804 2/3 IP
Astros: 4.34 in 893 2/3 IP

NL
Dodgers: 3.306 in 958 1/3 IP
Nationals: 3.312 in 1002 2/3 IP
Cardinals: 3.369 in 940 1/3 IP
Braves: 3.371 in 918 1/3 IP
Reds: 3.509 in 977 1/3 IP
Padres: 3.513 in 894 IP
Giants: 3.52 in 941 2/3 IP
Pirates: 3.60 in 865 2/3 IP
Marlins: 3.63 in 863 2/3 IP
Phillies: 3.68 in 895 2/3 IP
Mets: 3.77 in 875 1/3 IP
Diamondbacks: 3.78 in 929 2/3 IP
Brewers: 3.939 in 930 IP
Cubs: 3.945 in 940 IP
Rockies: 4.15 in 872 1/3 IP

There were a bunch of virtual ties on the NL list, requiring the extra digit. The Nationals came in just behind the Dodgers, but that’s with an extra 44 innings. The Cardinals and Braves were also in pretty much a dead heat for the third spot.

Using those ERAs as a guideline and adjusting for league, defense, ballpark and my own personal whims, here’s how I’m ranking the rotations:

1. Tigers
2. Nationals
3. Dodgers
4. Cardinals
5. Rays
6. Reds
7. Braves
8. Red Sox
9. Giants
10. Athletics
11. Padres
12. Yankees
13. Indians
14. Mariners
15. Pirates
16. White Sox
17. Marlins
18. Diamondbacks
19. Angels
20. Rangers
21. Phillies
22. Royals
23. Mets
24. Rockies
25. Blue Jays
26. Orioles
27. Brewers
28. Cubs
29. Twins
30. Astros

Some thoughts:

– The Tigers elevated the Nationals from fifth to second by gifting them Doug Fister, yet still had the artillery to claim the top spot. I’m expecting much better from Rick Porcello because of his improved K rate and the much better infield defense behind him. I also don’t see Drew Smyly dragging them down very far in his new role.

– The top three NL teams are all close, and I’d swing the edge over to the Cardinals if I were considering a team’s entire rotation picture. With Carlos Martinez and Joe Kelly likely in reserve, they’re going to be able to weather any storm. Of course, the Nationals aren’t bad there either with Taylor Jordan, Tanner Roark and Nathan Karns behind Ross Detwiler. And the Dodgers have Chad Billingsley potentially on the way back from Tommy John surgery in May or June.

– I love the Braves’ upside if Brandon Beachy stays healthy and Alex Wood can hang in the rotation most of the year. Those are question marks, though.

– Pre-Tanaka, the Yankees probably would have come in 20th or so.

– The Rangers are down about four spots because of Derek Holland’s knee injury.

– The Mets’ rotation is plenty intriguing, but the only one of their five starters I have throwing 190 innings is the guy I expect to be the weakest of the bunch, Dillon Gee. I’m really looking forward to seeing what Jenrry Mejia can do, assuming he wins the fifth spot.

– I don’t buy the idea that the Twins’ shopping spree is going to do them a lot of good. They would have actually fared better here had they passed on re-signing Mike Pelfrey and traded Kevin Correia.

Mark Melancon is considering surgery

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Giants’ right-hander Mark Melancon is considering surgery for an undisclosed injury, the pitcher told reporters prior to Friday’s game against the Phillies. Melancon did not divulge the exact location of the injury, but revealed that it had been plaguing him off and on since the 2012 season and was a separate issue from the right pronator strain that kept him sidelined through much of July and August. Giants’ head athletic trainer Dave Groeschner called the injury day-to-day and has not revealed a timetable for the right-hander’s return, should surgery become necessary.

Melancon, 32, has struggled to replicate the sparkling pitching line he produced with the Pirates and Nationals in 2016. He’s toting a 3.80 ERA through 25 appearances with San Francisco, flanked by a 1.1 BB/9 and 7.6 SO/9 over 23 2/3 innings. His season has been significantly shortened after multiple trips to the disabled list for a right forearm strain, and while he looked to be in line to resume his closing duties this week, the Giants will likely play it safe with the veteran righty to keep him from compromising his health in 2018.

Although the injury doesn’t appear to be severe in nature, it’s clearly intensified over the last few months. Per MLB.com’s Chris Haft, Melancon said he’s “had discomfort every day this season,” though he hopes to continue pitching through the remainder of 2017. The Giants aren’t on the verge of contending by any stretch of the imagination, but a solid end to the 2017 season could help Melancon make some headway as he looks to reclaim his status as the team’s closer next spring.

Watch: Javier Baez snares a 106-MPH ground ball

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What happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object? Just ask Javier Baez, who tracked down a sizzling 106-MPH ground ball from Jose Bautista on Friday afternoon. The defensive gem helped preserve the Cubs’ three-run lead in the top of the ninth inning, paving the way for Wade Davis‘ 25th save of the season.

Baez also impressed at the plate, collecting an RBI single in the second inning before getting tagged out at home by Miguel Montero on a convoluted 9-6-3-6-2 putout. He returned in the eighth inning to pester Tim Mayza and cleared the left field hedge with a 409-foot, two-run blast for his 20th home run of the year. With the win, the Cubs improved to 64-57 and now hold a scant 1.5-game lead over the Brewers in the NL Central.